deadbq03 said:

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I don't think Ryan sells until they're Premier League and the price tag has a "B" in it.

I think we underestimate how much of a cash cow this is for them already. Their summer tour is going to make a lot of money. If they come to a domed stadium in TX, I will probably be dumb and go.

I'm sure they're killing it in merchandise. Once the stands are rebuilt, ticket sales will go up.

And then there's the show itself, which is outside the financial structure of the club, but makes them money as individuals (that they can then choose to reinvest).

I think they push hard for Championship. Once there - I predict they do an IPO (but retain majority control). That'll generate the additional capital needed to climb the Championship ladder.

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Highlighted part=crazy talk.

For comparison, etc., the Big 6 are the only teams in the EPL with billion-dollar-plus valuations. Checking in at #6 is Tottenham with a $3.19 B valuation. The drop from 6 to 7 in EPL valuations is precipitous, and goes from Spurs to West Ham, with a valuation of $665 Million. Bournemouth brings up the rear at #20 and $145 Million. Tiny Wrexham, even though its a great story, won't ever command a price tag nearing $1 billion.

*Source for values from Sportico.com article dated 1/24/2023.

I don't think either Rob or Ryan will completely divest themselves of the club... but I could definitely see them selling portions of their stakes to other investors in the next couple of seasons. It seems to me that they're both emotionally invested in the success of the club, but Ryan especially is a pretty savvy businessman and I don't know that long-term club ownership as the sole proprietors is going to be something they want forever.

jeffk said:

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I don't think either Rob or Ryan will completely divest themselves of the club... but I could definitely see them selling portions of their stakes to other investors in the next couple of seasons. It seems to me that they're both emotionally invested in the success of the club, but Ryan especially is a pretty savvy businessman and I don't know that long-term club ownership as the sole proprietors is going to be something they want forever.

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I agree with this. I think the brand they have made for Wrexham is something a new owner would want to keep. They may seek investors, but keeping the two of them as the "front men" for the club would be very advantageous.

Given the revenue the club is now bringing in due to their online presence I think Rob and Ryan could front the club themselves for quite a while. But once they get (if they get) club to Championship level and are looking at EPL promotion then I could see them seeking outside investment.

They could definitely remain front and center even with new investors. (And I agree that would be wise.)

Maybe I am crazy. But this is a paradigmatically different club, so we can't evaluate it based on what's been done in the past and how current clubs operate.

There's really only one other "paradigm breaking" program I can think of recently... and that's RB Leipzig - who moved from 5th tier to Champions League semi-finalists in a decade. And while that's not a fair comparison right now for a variety of reasons (Red Bull wealth and EPL vs. Bundesliga quality), it's similar in how different its business model is compared to the clubs around it.

Ryan and Rob are building a global brand from scratch, and doing it really well. They're generating tons of interest and hype in a 5th tier club ... this is unheard of territory. So I think it's safe to throw out the rulebook in terms of everything you've thought about how clubs work. They're about to tour the US (and make sick money) as a now-4th tier club (shoutout to Chuck). This is unheard of. Open your mind to the fact that something new is happening here.

The overwhelming majority of clubs operate at the behest of their private owners (or club members). Very few have a public shareholder aspect to them, and even those that do, such as MANU, the publicly traded portion of their ownership is a tiny fraction. Public markets in particular are a funny thing, and lots of companies' valuation is based almost wholly on hype. And Ryan Reynolds is a master of this.

I fully anticipate that when they make Championship, they'll raise money by offering ~40% of the club to the public market with an IPO - and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they can raise $100M. And yes, that will appear to be an insane valuation for a club at the bottom of Championship (would mean roughly a $240 million total value) ... but it won't matter how crazy it seems by the numbers. People will love the idea of buying in and owning a slice of the pie. And companies are frequently valued based on growth potential, and by that point, it'll be clear that they're not just a flash-in-the-pan that's going to flame out.

And so yes, I think maybe 20 years down the road... they're gonna easily be worth more than a billion (in today's money).

I am high on Wrexham, but also I would slow down some expectations. They could also make some bonehead blunders, even with more revenues than their typical league rivals and flounder in the 4th and 3rd levels more or less permanently. In the football league there will likely be "richer" clubs than them at every level from now on (the saving grace being multiple promotions slots at least).

I do think that they're in a good place and could see one or even two more promotions relatively quickly, but there is always bad luck and also always ways to really mess things up.

jeffk said:

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I don't think either Rob or Ryan will completely divest themselves of the club... but I could definitely see them selling portions of their stakes to other investors in the next couple of seasons. It seems to me that they're both emotionally invested in the success of the club, but Ryan especially is a pretty savvy businessman and I don't know that long-term club ownership as the sole proprietors is going to be something they want forever.

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They'll have to.

As rich as they are, if they get promoted another level or two, they'll be swimming in much richer waters. They'll need an influx of $ to keep investing in the team. They'd likely also need to update their facilities to attract higher talent. What they have now is a level below.

But, a large part of the success and the team's worth right now, is tied to their celebrity, so I think the team would become like Ryan's other investments (Mint Mobile, Aviation Gin, etc); they maintain an ownership stake, but still act as the face of the team. But unlike those, they're actually emotionally invested in this one.

To provide some context for the previous discussion, the top 6 soccer teams in the Premier League are worth over a billion dollars, and then there is a giant drop off (#7 is worth about half a billion and it goes down from there). Even if they get promoted to League 1 or everything breaks right, and some years down the road they get promoted to the Championship...they aren't getting close to a billion. It would be a amazing if they got 100 million (seeing as they only bought the team for 2-3 million).

I wish I could sit in on the team's meetings and see their plans. It'd be cool to see something get built from the floor up. They have advantages other teams dont, but they're also starting at the bottom floor and there are endless things that could derail them.

It sure is fun to follow though.

Dre_00 said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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deadbq03 said:

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I don't think Ryan sells until they're Premier League and the price tag has a "B" in it.

I think we underestimate how much of a cash cow this is for them already. Their summer tour is going to make a lot of money. If they come to a domed stadium in TX, I will probably be dumb and go.

I'm sure they're killing it in merchandise. Once the stands are rebuilt, ticket sales will go up.

And then there's the show itself, which is outside the financial structure of the club, but makes them money as individuals (that they can then choose to reinvest).

I think they push hard for Championship. Once there - I predict they do an IPO (but retain majority control). That'll generate the additional capital needed to climb the Championship ladder.

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I think you're crazy. There are really big clubs in much bigger cities with much bigger fan bases that are stuck in the Championship/ League 1. Wrexham is a great story but there's knly so far you can climb and recruit people to rural Wales.

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Many of those teams are stuck in the Championship/League 1 because they were poorly run for years on end. They have loads of debt and made horrible roster decisions that kneecapped them for years.

If Blackpool can make the EPL, there's no reason why Wrexham can't. Their average attendance and stadium size is already the same as Blackpool's was when they were promoted to the EPL. Wrexham's current attendance is already higher than 4 Championship teams and it isn't far behind 2 others. So the revenue from traditional revenue streams like attendance, season tickets, etc. is already not terribly far behind the average Championship club. But they likely have the potential for new revenue streams that other Championship clubs can only dream about.
. . .

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Luton Town is another good example. They were playing in the same league as Wrexham as a non-league side from 2009-2013, and last season and this one they've made the playoffs for a chance at promotion to the EPL out of the Championship. 10 years from Tier 5 to possibly the top.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luton_Town_F.C.

Luton is bigger than Wrexham (286k including surrounding areas according to Wiki), but has nowhere near the exposure and marketing clout that Wrexham has amassed given the Hollywood ownership.

https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

There's a reason the Big 6 and their billion-dollar valuations are located in Manchester, Liverpool and London rather than Wrexham, Luton Town or Blackpool. Just achieving a low 9-figure valuation would be a massive accomplishment.

carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

There's a reason the Big 6 and their billion-dollar valuations are located in Manchester, Liverpool and London rather than Wrexham, Luton Town or Blackpool. Just achieving a low 9-figure valuation would be a massive accomplishment.

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I agree with this...to a degree, but Wrexham are a unique situation where the club has taken on almost a Disney like quality. Luton and Blackpool aren't coming to the US this summer to play Chelsea and Man United. The team almost has a Green Bay Packers type quality where it is garnering fans throughout the country due to the uniqueness of the situation. They will garner more and more sponsorship dollars where a lot of your first and second division clubs struggle to find shirt sponsors.

Rob and Ryan have been very smart in their promotion strategy for the club, and having Hollywood behind the team gives them something few other teams have. I am really curious to see where this journey takes the club over the next 5 years, but given the set payments of the EPL and the fame the club has generated, there is no reason they couldn't compete at the EPL level eventually. Size of the town won't be the determining factor.


Looking at 2022 numbers and projecting their future value is not really a good measure. Now that they are in league football it will be interesting to see how the value increases.

You act like things can't change in 10-20 years.

Aston94 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

There's a reason the Big 6 and their billion-dollar valuations are located in Manchester, Liverpool and London rather than Wrexham, Luton Town or Blackpool. Just achieving a low 9-figure valuation would be a massive accomplishment.

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I agree with this...to a degree, but Wrexham are a unique situation where the club has taken on almost a Disney like quality. Luton and Blackpool aren't coming to the US this summer to play Chelsea and Man United. The team almost has a Green Bay Packers type quality where it is garnering fans throughout the country due to the uniqueness of the situation. They will garner more and more sponsorship dollars where a lot of your first and second division clubs struggle to find shirt sponsors.

Rob and Ryan have been very smart in their promotion strategy for the club, and having Hollywood behind the team gives them something few other teams have. I am really curious to see where this journey takes the club over the next 5 years, but given the set payments of the EPL and the fame the club has generated, there is no reason they couldn't compete at the EPL level eventually. Size of the town won't be the determining factor.


Looking at 2022 numbers and projecting their future value is not really a good measure. Now that they are in league football it will be interesting to see how the value increases.

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You hit the nail on the head.

They went from their kit sponsor being some local trucking company to one of the biggest aps in the world with Tik Tok.

They're getting money no other teams in any league beside the PL can get.

Like I said above… you can throw the old rule book out the window. They're doing this completely differently.

Whether it works or not will be fun to watch, but the potential is absolutely there.

There's a good reason they're beating the Welch drum really hard. They're going to build themselves a regional following.

deadbq03 said:

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You act like things can't change in 10-20 years.

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And you sound like its a foregone conclusion. I get that its entertaining to consider the potential but its fantasy thinking a tiny club like Wrexham can go from a $2.5 million purchase price to a $1 billion realized sale price. Ever. Bookmark this because I'm putting a Poop Slap bet on it.

***Edited to correct for purchase price

They actually bought it for 2.5 million.

carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

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I'd be curious how much the construction is costing them. I thought they were going to upgrade the closed end, and bring it up to code...but they are completely rebuilding it.

AgGrad99 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

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I'd be curious how much the construction is costing them. I thought they were going to upgrade the closed end, and bring it up to code...but they are completely rebuilding it.

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It had to be destroyed.

I figured as much.

With their current popularity, should bring in some nice additional revenue..

Chuck Cunningham said:

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Aston94 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

There's a reason the Big 6 and their billion-dollar valuations are located in Manchester, Liverpool and London rather than Wrexham, Luton Town or Blackpool. Just achieving a low 9-figure valuation would be a massive accomplishment.

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I agree with this...to a degree, but Wrexham are a unique situation where the club has taken on almost a Disney like quality. Luton and Blackpool aren't coming to the US this summer to play Chelsea and Man United. The team almost has a Green Bay Packers type quality where it is garnering fans throughout the country due to the uniqueness of the situation. They will garner more and more sponsorship dollars where a lot of your first and second division clubs struggle to find shirt sponsors.

Rob and Ryan have been very smart in their promotion strategy for the club, and having Hollywood behind the team gives them something few other teams have. I am really curious to see where this journey takes the club over the next 5 years, but given the set payments of the EPL and the fame the club has generated, there is no reason they couldn't compete at the EPL level eventually. Size of the town won't be the determining factor.


Looking at 2022 numbers and projecting their future value is not really a good measure. Now that they are in league football it will be interesting to see how the value increases.

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You hit the nail on the head.

They went from their kit sponsor being some local trucking company to one of the biggest aps in the world with Tik Tok.

They're getting money no other teams in any league beside the PL can get.

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I assume you mean any other English leagues

AgGrad99 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

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I'd be curious how much the construction is costing them. I thought they were going to upgrade the closed end, and bring it up to code...but they are completely rebuilding it.

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I read somewhere that Ryan has sunk $10M into the club beyond the purchase price, so I would assume a lot of that is for that project.

My memory sucks… did they ever say where the purchase money went? It was owned by the fans before, so did that money just roll back into the club? Or is there still some fan trust that now has a huge bankroll?

carl spacklers hat said:

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Chuck Cunningham said:

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Aston94 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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https://www.wrexhamafc.co.uk/news/2023/march/statement--annual-report-and-financial-statements-year-ending-june-30-2022/

Lost a couple of million pounds in FY 2022. Obviously FY 2023 will show the payoff to the exposure brought by the TV show, promotion, and the Club's famous owners but getting to a 10-figure valuation...not going to happen.

There's a reason the Big 6 and their billion-dollar valuations are located in Manchester, Liverpool and London rather than Wrexham, Luton Town or Blackpool. Just achieving a low 9-figure valuation would be a massive accomplishment.

---

I agree with this...to a degree, but Wrexham are a unique situation where the club has taken on almost a Disney like quality. Luton and Blackpool aren't coming to the US this summer to play Chelsea and Man United. The team almost has a Green Bay Packers type quality where it is garnering fans throughout the country due to the uniqueness of the situation. They will garner more and more sponsorship dollars where a lot of your first and second division clubs struggle to find shirt sponsors.

Rob and Ryan have been very smart in their promotion strategy for the club, and having Hollywood behind the team gives them something few other teams have. I am really curious to see where this journey takes the club over the next 5 years, but given the set payments of the EPL and the fame the club has generated, there is no reason they couldn't compete at the EPL level eventually. Size of the town won't be the determining factor.


Looking at 2022 numbers and projecting their future value is not really a good measure. Now that they are in league football it will be interesting to see how the value increases.

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You hit the nail on the head.

They went from their kit sponsor being some local trucking company to one of the biggest aps in the world with Tik Tok.

They're getting money no other teams in any league beside the PL can get.

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I assume you mean any other English leagues

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Partially. Definitely more than any non top division team.

deadbq03 said:

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I read somewhere that Ryan has sunk $10M into the club beyond the purchase price, so I would assume a lot of that is for that project.

My memory sucks… did they ever say where the purchase money went? It was owned by the fans before, so did that money just roll back into the club? Or is there still some fan trust that now has a huge bankroll?

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This is from an article, back when the bought the team....

Quote:

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Prior to the takeover, the club had been owned by the Wrexham Supporters Trust, the club's own fans, meaning that when Ryan and Rob proposed their takeover, it was subject to a vote of the Trust's members.

Once the takeover had been voted through by 98.6% of members, the 2 million that Ryan and Rob paid was invested directly into the club to help its efforts on and off the field.

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It doesnt explain in detail, but I'd guess most of it went to debt service to keep the team solvent.

This thread took a wild turn over the last day!

What are you talking about? Its perfectly normal to imagine a 5th division, small-town team making it to the EPL and someday selling for a cool billion!

Nothing about this is normal. Why do you keep insisting that this has to be normal?

carl spacklers hat said:

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What are you talking about? Its perfectly normal to imagine a 5th division, small-town team making it to the EPL and someday selling for a cool billion!

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Again, how many 5th division teams could you name before learning Wrexham's story? How many players on 5th division teams did you know the name of? How many 5th division teams are playing Chelsea and Man United in sold out friendlies in the US this summer? How many 5th division teams have more twitter and tik tok follows than most EPL clubs?

Can we get away from thinking this is at all "normal"?

I think its pretty reasonable to think they could get Wrexham into the Championship. Its not out of the realm of possibility for them to then parlay that into contending for promotion.
However, like all teams in that region, its just as likely they go down and back up a couples at each level.
Either way it will be fun to follow, and its awesome all the older supporters got to experience that celebration.

What is a good thing for Wrexham is that they'll have to be incredibly bad to get kicked out of the EFL moving forward. There are 24 teams in League 2 and only 2 of them get relegated every year, while 4 of them get promoted to League 1.

Which player will be the first American signee ?
You'd think it wouldn't be until the team makes League 1 that a young American player would be considered it but could we see a veteran take a shot?


eta: wouldnt it be cool to see a yeoman like Dax McCarty getting a shot overseas while in his 30s

The higher they go the less the owners running things the right way can influence the results and the more it will be on the football people and the options they push for.

Theres no reason to think they're gonna be bad decision makers or anything, but theres also no reason to believe they're gonna be like savants at hiring the right people all the way up the pyramid

JJxvi said:

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The higher they go the less the owners running things the right way can influence the results and the more it will be on the football people and the options they push for.

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Yeah because the lowest salary teams always play in Champions league.

Chuck Cunningham said:

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JJxvi said:

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The higher they go the less the owners running things the right way can influence the results and the more it will be on the football people and the options they push for.

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Yeah because the lowest salary teams always play in Champions league.

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The EFL Championship is not the Champions League. I think you will find that in the second level most of the highest wage bill teams are in the middle to bottom of the table. Burnley is the only team out of the five paying over 20 million pounds thats gonna make it to the Premier League. I dont believe that this is a transformational new model of celebrity ownership. At some point someone in their organization will need to prove they are adept at building the next level of team.

JJxvi said:

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Chuck Cunningham said:

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JJxvi said:

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The higher they go the less the owners running things the right way can influence the results and the more it will be on the football people and the options they push for.

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Yeah because the lowest salary teams always play in Champions league.

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The EFL Championship is not the Champions League. I think you will find that in the second level most of the highest wage bill teams are in the middle to bottom of the table. Burnley is the only team out of the five paying over 20 million pounds thats gonna make it to the Premier League. I dont believe that this is a transformational new model of celebrity ownership. At some point someone in their organization will need to prove they are adept at building the next level of team.

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Money and the ability to raise money and earn money is as important as good football people.

Bit of an aside, but listened to the UEFA president on Men in Blazers, he indicated that they were working, with support of large and small clubs, on a salary cap throughout Europe. Curious how that would affect big money pouring a lot into a lower level club to bring them up quicker through the promotion process. Will be interesting to watch.