I think that we have about a 95% chance at the Holiday, 4.9% Alamo, and a .1% chance Cotton. Basically this theory is based on my belief that I don't think that the bowl games care about who beat who... they just want teams that will look like a good matchup when they show the commercial.
It is for this reason that I don't think that a win on T+1 sends us to Dallas. If we beat t.u., we are 8-3, they're 9-2. We're ranked maybe 17, they're ranked probably around 10 or 11. Better record, better ranking, better bowl.
Another thing to consider is the point that AliasMan02 brought up earlier about people calling in favors. The sips have been to San Diego I think three of the last four years in their consistent role as conference bridesmaid. I'll bet that somewhere, someone is trying to pull strings to get a new team in there.
As far as the OSU-to-Holiday Bowl scenario goes, I think that like with the Cotton Bowl choosing the sips over us, they will want a good record and ranking. If they win and we lose, they will have a better ranking and record than us, so to me it would make sense that they would choose OSU before us. I consider this scenario unimportant since I think that Tech will beat OSU and we will beat Texas.
I really hope that I am wrong and we end up in the Cotton Bowl.