I am anti-expansion. I was good with 4. I would be fine with 8. I think 12 is too many. 16 would be ludicrous. And 24 would be beyond stupid.
The question should not be CAN Team X win it all? The question should be has Team X EARNED the right to play for a national championship. And, imo, that number of teams is almost always <8.
I will echo what Josh Pate says: The beauty of college football is in the regular season, the pageantry of each game day in the fall. What made winning a national championship difficult, among other things, was how little margin for error you had. The regular season meant something, every game had meaning. Take some games from this season as an example: Texas losing to Florida, Notre Dame losing to us, Alabama losing to FSU, Miami losing to Louisville. All these games would mean that the winner would be in pole position in the rankings and the losing team would have zero margin for error the rest of the way. All those teams went on to lose more games, but two of them are in the playoff. In 2023, when Michigan and Ohio State we both undefeated going into The Game, the loser was eliminated from the playoffs. There was so much riding on that game which I argue was what made it all the more exciting. If that game were to be played today, both could afford to lose as they would be assured a spot in the playoff.
Now, you can lose 2-3 games and still make the playoff. Has Oklahoma earned the right to play for a national title? Has Miami earned the right to play for a national title? Has Alabama earned the right to play for a national title? Have we?
With all that said, this 12 team format is what we have right now. And with the current rules, we are still in contention. So let's BTHO Miami!!!