So ever since Texags Meltdown posted the odds showing that we were -4000 to make the quarter finals I've been wondering what that means. Gone back and forth between scenarios and also "they are just wrong", but I finally got around to look at the other odds. These are the current odds to make the Semi Finals

OSU -350
IU -195
Georgia -140
Texas A&M -110
Texas Tech -105
Oregon +125

At this point their odds are not just a typo. I think at this point what they are implying is

- Georgia wins and moves to 2
- IU falls to 4
- Tech goes to 3
- We go to 6

And instead if Bama wins

- Bama goes to 4
- IU and OSU stay 1-2 regardless
- Georgia drops to below all the one loss teams because they have 2 losses
- At that point Georgia has head to head over Ole Miss so Georgia goes to 7 Ole Miss 8 and us up to 6


The only thing that doesn't really make sense is how they could justify us going to 6 over Ole Miss if Georgia wins. If they were going to do that what's different from last week to this week to justify it.

The thing that makes me think this will happen is it's all rigged anyways and seems like they really would like the TV matchup of us vs Tech in the Cotton Bowl

They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

The one thing that could help A&M vs. Ole Miss would be if North Texas beats Tulane and drops them out of the top 25. That removes 1 of Ole Miss's top 25 wins. Then you look at the similar opponents of Ole Miss and A&M. A&M outscored common opponents by 13.5 vs. Ole Miss 11.2. Advantage A&M. Then you add the non-common opponents and A&M played Missouri vs. Ole Miss playing Kentucky.

Bucho said:

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They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

Which in theory, makes sense. Lane was gone when they ranked them ahead of us so. Nothing has changed. Why would we jump them?

jt16 said:

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The one thing that could help A&M vs. Ole Miss would be if North Texas beats Tulane and drops them out of the top 25. That removes 1 of Ole Miss's top 25 wins. Then you look at the similar opponents of Ole Miss and A&M. A&M outscored common opponents by 13.5 vs. Ole Miss 11.2. Advantage A&M. Then you add the non-common opponents and A&M played Missouri vs. Ole Miss playing Kentucky.

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That's a good point. Unless Tulane just destroys them they can probably use that game to justify it. Also they could probably make up something about coaching uncertainty too. Either way either something is amiss

I would LOVE to play Tech. Dream matchup. They haven't faced a talented OL or DL all season. They haven't faced WR talent like we have all season.

Quote:

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

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When was this?

Don't recall that.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

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When was this?

Don't recall that.

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It was actually the committee last year that said it. So not sure what the committee will do about it this year.


https://www.on3.com/news/warde-manuel-reveals-whether-smu-can-fall-below-alabama-final-college-football-playoff-rankings-cfp/

"Manuel was making a point about teams that aren't playing this weekend. On the ESPN broadcast after the College Football Playoff rankings reveal, he said the committee will not "adjust" the rankings of those programs. He broke down what he meant during the teleconference, explaining teams that don't play won't move behind other idle teams."

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Bucho said:

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They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

Which in theory, makes sense. Lane was gone when they ranked them ahead of us so. Nothing has changed. Why would we jump them?

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No, they actually said the opposite. They explicitly said and went out of their way to state that teams that are idle this week CAN be moved in the rankings for the final CFP poll.

There would be movement even if UGA and technical win, there will be much more of either BYU or Bama win.

IMHO the committee will want to avoid rematches from the regular season esp. in the 1st round if possible, if not they should IMHO.

Haven't committees since this whole thing began repeatedly stated "Each week is a clean slate" mentality to justify moving teams whenever and wherever in the final rankings?

It's not the TV numbers

They want cotton bowl to be a near sellout
Given the field tceh v Ags is how it happens

Jarrin Jay said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Bucho said:

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They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

Which in theory, makes sense. Lane was gone when they ranked them ahead of us so. Nothing has changed. Why would we jump them?

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No, they actually said the opposite. They explicitly said and went out of their way to state that teams that are idle this week CAN be moved in the rankings for the final CFP poll.

There would be movement even if UGA and technical win, there will be much more of either BYU or Bama win.

IMHO the committee will want to avoid rematches from the regular season esp. in the 1st round if possible, if not they should IMHO.

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This is what I remember reading.

They were apparently VERY open that 2 teams that weren't playing (I don't know, let's say some random school in Indiana and another random school in south Floriday) could still move around or even swap.

Anyone but Notre Dame.

They are hitting on all cylinders and a bad matchup for us right now. It's hard enough to beat a good team twice in one season, no matter who it is.

Would like to draw the ACC team or G5 team. Next best thing to a bye.

4 said:

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Anyone but Notre Dame.

They are hitting on all cylinders and a bad matchup for us right now. It's hard enough to beat a good team twice in one season, no matter who it is.

Would like to draw the ACC team or G5 team. Next best thing to a bye.

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Sq 17 said:

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It's not the TV numbers

They want cotton bowl to be a near sellout
Given the field tceh v Ags is how it happens

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Only way that happens is if tech wins and goes to 3 and Ags somehow get 6. Would need Bama to win and knock UGA down, but I don't see how Bama doesn't jump. Then we would have to jump Ole Miss and Oregon to be 6.

4 said:

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Anyone but Notre Dame.

They are hitting on all cylinders and a bad matchup for us right now. It's hard enough to beat a good team twice in one season, no matter who it is.

Would like to draw the ACC team or G5 team. Next best thing to a bye.

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There isn't a universe where we have the odds that we do AND we play ND. The only way we would be the 4th favorite to make the final 4 is if we played Tech. We would be an underdog to anyone else in the top 4 currently.

So either the odds are massively wrong, or we are going to move up to #6.

WestTexAg12 said:

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Sq 17 said:

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It's not the TV numbers

They want cotton bowl to be a near sellout
Given the field tceh v Ags is how it happens

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Only way that happens is if tech wins and goes to 3 and Ags somehow get 6. Would need Bama to win and knock UGA down, but I don't see how Bama doesn't jump. Then we would have to jump Ole Miss and Oregon to be 6.

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If you read my first post I think the scenario if bama wins would be

3. Tech
4. Bama
5. Oregon
6. Good Guys
7. Georgia
8. Ole Miss

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Bucho said:

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They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

Which in theory, makes sense. Lane was gone when they ranked them ahead of us so. Nothing has changed. Why would we jump them?

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The chairman actually said the complete opposite last week.

HarryJ33tamu said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Bucho said:

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They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

Which in theory, makes sense. Lane was gone when they ranked them ahead of us so. Nothing has changed. Why would we jump them?

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The chairman actually said the complete opposite last week.

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Good

DTX_12 said:

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4 said:

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Anyone but Notre Dame.

They are hitting on all cylinders and a bad matchup for us right now. It's hard enough to beat a good team twice in one season, no matter who it is.

Would like to draw the ACC team or G5 team. Next best thing to a bye.

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There isn't a universe where we have the odds that we do AND we play ND. The only way we would be the 4th favorite to make the final 4 is if we played Tech. We would be an underdog to anyone else in the top 4 currently.

So either the odds are massively wrong, or we are going to move up to #6.

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Hope you're right

Fanduel updated the odds

Bucho said:

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Fanduel corrected the odds

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I don't think they were corrected I think they were updated based on the games last night. Tulane dominant win helps Ole Miss. Oregon has better odds to make it to the QF than Georgia who has a chance to get a freaking bye. Our odds totally collapsed.

Sq 17 said:

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It's not the TV numbers

They want cotton bowl to be a near sellout
Given the field tceh v Ags is how it happens

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It won't be a near sellout. It will be an actual sellout

DTX_12 said:

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Bucho said:

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Fanduel corrected the odds

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I don't think they were corrected I think they were updated based on the games last night. Tulane dominant win helps Ole Miss. Oregon has better odds to make it to the QF than Georgia who has a chance to get a freaking bye. Our odds totally collapsed.

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North Texas sucking screwed us. Now the odds reflect what we all thought would happen. But we need to stop crying as a fanbase and just embrace the challenge

I think the change in Oregon means they were just flat out wrong. -600 -> -7000.

Ole Miss odds also changed and semi final odds also moved. They were assuming we would get the #6 spot and play tech in the round of 8.

You could have slammed Ole Miss -103 for a week. I don't think they just let it sit there like that as an accident

I think if Tulane lost they would have used that to jump us over Ole Miss.

Bucho said:

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Fanduel updated the odds

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So according to this it looks like the odds of a team that will be a slight favorite in their first round game, so 7 or 8 seed

From -4000 to -270 because of the American Conference Championship? Something is seriously wrong with this system.

Think committee w try to aggregate the SEC teams to knock each other (and try to ensure 2 don't make the finals) and allow easier paths for nonSEC teams.

90ags said:

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Think committee w try to aggregate the SEC teams to knock each other (and try to ensure 2 don't make the finals) and allow easier paths for nonSEC teams.

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Ah, the college baseball seeding strategy.

Exactly...guess smiley faces don't work since I won't pay Billy's entourage.

Regarding movement, even if UGA loses (and don't think they will), they will not put them below A&M. They destroyed tu while we lost in all 3 phases....committee will not punish UGA that much as CCGs aren't supposed to be a punishment for playing an extra game.

We aren't jumping teams ranked ahead of us that don't play this weekend. I do t know why people are assuming that we do.

The odds do seem to suggest Vegas has us in the 6 slot.

So either Georgia or Tech need to lose, or we jump Ole Miss.

Mr.Milkshake said:

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The odds do seem to suggest Vegas has us in the 6 slot.

So either Georgia or Tech need to lose, or we jump Ole Miss.

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The odds have been updated and now suggest we are the 7 or 8 seed

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Bucho said:

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They either know Ole Miss will move to a 7+ or the odds are wrong.

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I thought the committee said a team that doesn't play a game can't jump another team that also isn't playing a game this week?

Which in theory, makes sense. Lane was gone when they ranked them ahead of us so. Nothing has changed. Why would we jump them?

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Even if it was said, the committee has shown they do not mind going back on what they said