Howdy Ags,

I'm class of '87. I used to follow all of this very closely, but I don't anymore. Still love my Ags and A&M football is still one of my favorite ways to waste time. This is a very exciting season. So, I've been paying a little more attention and trying to follow along a bit more.

I've read so many things on this board in last few days about where we might be ranked in the CFP, and why, and why it's important, and how it depends on so many things. Way too many variables for me to follow.

Can some of you smarter, younger bucks, that really drill down into this stuff, tell me something pretty simple?

When I'm watching games this coming weekend - which teams do we want to win?

Thanks for your help and patience.

Rev & Uga need a playdate.

Que Sera, Sera my dude

Que Sera, Sera

Only CFP ranking matters. Five conference champs get a spot but not a bye this year. Best seven others. The ranking top four get byes. The 5/12, 6/11, 7/10, 8/9 play at lowest seed home and pair up 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, 4/5 with the winner of first round inheriting the lower seed in effect. Them semis of winners of quarters and two winners of semis in championship.

Why is the rank important?

#1-4 get byes, their first game (second round) is played at a neutral field bowl

#5-8 get to host a home game in their stadium, round 1

#9-12 must travel to #5-8 and play an away game against a top 8 team.


Some people think its preferable to avoid being #1-4 because last year they all lost.

Tbh, with our terrible schedule home schedule the local economy could use another home game.

SEC - Bama / Georgia - Root Bama - There's a chance Georgia falls below us with a loss and it's unlikely Bama jumps us with a win, so a Bama win might net us a spot.

ACC - Virginia / Duke - Root Duke - Big implications here for the 11/12 seed, 5 plays 12 and 6 plays 11. Virginia is likely to be the 11 seed if they win, but if Duke wins a second group-of-5 team might get in instead of the ACC champ. If the 11 seed is G5 that's easier for us if we are the sixth seed.

Big 12 - Texas Tech / BYU - Root BYU - Tech losing could fall below us, and BYU winning may not jump us, so Tech losing is probably better for us here so we might gain a seed. Or you might root against Tech because they're Tech...

B1G - OSU / Indiana - Toss up - Doesn't matter from our perspective for the first round, neither will fall below us if they lose. I'll root against Ohio State, but some might root against Indiana if they think they're overrated and undeserving. You could also play advanced chess and hope Ohio State loses in case we're the eighth seed so we don't play them if we make round two, but thinking to the second round is more mental gymnastics than I'm willing to do.

Re: SEC CG, I see it different, we want UGA to win, otherwise BOTH could be ahead of us. No way the SEC champ is NOT. A top 4 seed IMHO.

UGA win they stay ahead of us and Bama is either out or 10/11.

Bama win and they are 4 with UGA 5 and we could get shuffled down accordingly.

THANK YOU! That's EXACTLY what I wanted to know. Much appreciated.

This here

I agree with this post

Jarrin Jay said:

---

Re: SEC CG, I see it different, we want UGA to win, otherwise BOTH could be ahead of us. No way the SEC champ is NOT. A top 4 seed IMHO.

UGA win they stay ahead of us and Bama is either out or 10/11.

Bama win and they are 4 with UGA 5 and we could get shuffled down accordingly.

---

Bama won't jump from 10 to 4 by beating Georgia with two losses. I think it's unlikely they'd have either team ahead of us with two losses.

Unlike last year the conference champions are not guaranteed the top 4 seeds.

Red Stick Ag said:

---

THANK YOU! That's EXACTLY what I wanted to know. Much appreciated.

---

I think some of it will clear up when they announce current CFP rankings tomorrow night.

That's very funny. I'm old enough to remember Dorris Day singing that song and I know exactly what you mean. The older I get the more I realize how true it is. Lol. I'm trying to teach my 29-year-old son something my father told me a thousand times - "90% of the **** we worry about, works itself out."

I'll be flying all day Saturday to Bogota and then Sau Paulo and I'll probably be killing a good bit of time (and brain cells) watching college football games in the air and in airport lounges. I'm just trying to make a bunch of games (that I honestly don't care about) a bit more interesting to watch.

A funny side note: That's supposed to be a Spanish saying. I've said that to my Colombian wife a few times over the years. But my wife and her amigas from central and south American interpret that to mean (literally): "What Sarah? Sarah?"

One of my good friends and business associates is an older gringo (like me) and he's married to a younger Latina woman (like me) from El Salvador. We're all four really good friends. His wife's name is Sarah. But they pronounce Sarah exactly like "Sera."

He's hard of hearing (like me) and I can't tell you how many times we've all laughed when he asks his wife "Que Sarah?"

Thanks for the laugh. Be well brother.

I get that but I just don't see a world where an SEC champ is not a top 4 seed. Bama would be 12-2, SEC champ and have a strong resume.

But maybe you are right, maybe we actually move up with Bama right behind us and UGA just ahead.

Going to be crazy from Sat. AM to final rankings.

I just want Duke to win…. That would be comical.

I agree. I dont think the ccgs will make all that much impact, except upsets of course, in the final rankings. Surely the committee can see that the ccg and how a team gets there is beyond convoluted in this big conference era.

VERY helpful. Thank you very much for the explanation.

Final CFP rankings are Sunday 11/7 12-3 EST. No idea why they are dragging it out 3 hours, all others are 30 minutes, 1 hour would be enough drama.

That's VERY helpful. Thank you very much. The 5-8 getting home field is something big I wasn't getting. Appreciate you taking the time to simplify for me. Gig'em.

Interesting. Thank you for taking the time to explain. That's one of those variables. Gig'em.

The main things you'll hear people talking about that may not be super obvious are that the top 5 conference champs are IN automatically, which impacts where the cutoff is.

That will be the SEC, B10, Big XII and then either be the ACC + 1 G5 or 2 G5 champs (if Duke wins the ACC, there may be 2 G5 conference champs ranked higher, leaving the ACC champ out).

That is why people keep saying you have to be top 10.

11 & 12 will be replaced by ACC/G5 or G5/G5.

You can think of it kind of like march madness where even though it was 64 teams forever, it wasn't the top 64 because of all of the auto-bids from small conference championships.

A&M is squarely in and pretty much guaranteed to host a game unless the committee values us higher than the AP/Coaches.

If we rank 5 tomorrow, we could potentially slide back in to top 4 if BYU beats tech and UGA beats bama.

Odds are we'll finish 5-8 (likely 6 or 7) would have us hosting a first round game.

Root for the following:

Georgia - Don't want the committee to have any reason to place Alabama ahead of A&M

Duke - as stated above, this causes a ton of chaose for the 11 seed and should be it a ton easier

BYU - Should help seeding for A&M though TT at 3 or 4 wouldn't be a bad thing either

OSU - If you think A&M will be the 5 or 6 seed
Indiana - If you think A&M will be the 8 seed

With that said, these thoughts might change a bit after rankings come out tomorrow evening and how far the comittee drops A&M this week.

BTKAG97 said:

---

With that said, these thoughts might change a bit after rankings come out tomorrow evening and how far the comittee drops A&M this week.

---

Yeah, it's kind of wild.

I could see us being as high as 5 tomorrow, or as low as 8 (sliding OU ahead of us, though I'm not sure you punish us for losing in Austin by 10 when OU got routed in Dallas).

I'll make it really easy for you. Our loss to horn eliminated us from the top 4. Right now our best possible outcome would be to draw a lower seed in the semifinal games to get a home game at Kyle. Those spots are awarded to the 5, 6, 7 and 8 seeds. Of those seeds the 5 spot is obviously the best as that team would get a home game against a G5 team which this year means a team like North Texas for example. If you are the higher seed. In the semifinal game you may have to travel to some place like Notre Dame for example which would absolutely suck for obvious crappy weather reasons.

So far this year the committee has been pretty consistent about ranking teams in the conference with a better record above those with a worse, and 11-1 is better than the 11-2 Bama/Georgia would have if Bama wins. So I'm banking on that.

But I will say, the committee has gotten wild and inconsistent on the last rankings before. They might also look for bigger name matchups to drive TV ratings. But I think the chaos this year is more likely to show up for the 9/10 seed where they might play favorites to get someone in.

Jarrin Jay said:

---

Final CFP rankings are Sunday 11/7 12-3 EST. No idea why they are dragging it out 3 hours, all others are 30 minutes, 1 hour would be enough drama.

---

Don't they announce the bowl games at that time also?

Jarrin Jay said:

---

Re: SEC CG, I see it different, we want UGA to win, otherwise BOTH could be ahead of us. No way the SEC champ is NOT. A top 4 seed IMHO.

UGA win they stay ahead of us and Bama is either out or 10/11.

Bama win and they are 4 with UGA 5 and we could get shuffled down accordingly.

---

I dont think a two loss team gets a first round bye over 5 one loss teams, even Bama.

Some folks seem to think it'll be a 3-loss team.

There are only 4 home games in the playoffs. 5 hosting 12, 6 hosting 11, 7 hosting 10, and 8 hosting 9.

The second round games 8/9 vs 1, 7/10 vs 2 6/11 vs 3 and 5/12 vs 4 will be played in the Cotton bowl Friday night, then the Fiesta, Rose and Sugar Bowls Saturday. 12pm, 3pm and 7 pm.

Semi finals are in bowls and the Championship game is also.

Best results for us are to land the 5 or 6 seed, play a home game Dec 19 or 20, 7 or 8 still gets a home game but a tougher opponent. I dont think a 1 loss team will fall below 7. 2 loss ou, ND and Bama are likely the last 3 in. Any of them could be bumped if BYU beats Tech unless Tech is knocked out. Bama is safe with a win over Georgia. ND and ou don't have another game.

Tomorrow we find out where we stand and which teams are the last 2 at large teams. Right now it's ou, ND Bama in the 8-9-10 spots. If BYU beats Tech, one of them or Tech is out and BYU is in. If Bama also beats Ga, then they can't be out, so the team bumped by BYU would probably be ND or OU or Maybe Tech. If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC title game, James Madison takes the 4th conference title spot and the ACC gets nobody in. However, the committee could put 2 loss Miami in and drop ND or OU or Tech. A lot more will be known tomorrow night.

LincolnBorglum79 said:

---

There are only 4 home games in the playoffs. 5 hosting 12, 6 hosting 11, 7 hosting 10, and 8 hosting 9.

The second round games 8/9 vs 1, 7/10 vs 2 6/11 vs 3 and 5/12 vs 4 will be played in the Cotton bowl Friday night, then the Fiesta, Rose and Sugar Bowls Saturday. 12pm, 3pm and 7 pm.

Semi finals are in bowls and the Championship game is also.

Best results for us are to land the 5 or 6 seed, play a home game Dec 19 or 20, 7 or 8 still gets a home game but a tougher opponent. I dont think a 1 loss team will fall below 7. 2 loss ou, ND and Bama are likely the last 3 in. Any of them could be bumped if BYU beats Tech unless Tech is knocked out. Bama is safe with a win over Georgia. ND and ou don't have another game.

---

Visual aide

In short, we want the lowest ranked team in each CCG to win.

We will move ahead of Ole Miss to #6.

If Bama wins, we potentially move ahead of UGA.

If BYU beats Tech, we move ahead of them.

With tOSU and IU, we probably do not move ahead of whoever loses that game.

So with those two upsets, we could get back to #4 and a bye.

Cotton, Rose, Sugar and Orange (not Fiesta) are the quarterfinal bowls to be played NYE and NYD.

The Fiesta and Peach are the semifinal game sites.

Guy12 said:

---

Jarrin Jay said:

---

Re: SEC CG, I see it different, we want UGA to win, otherwise BOTH could be ahead of us. No way the SEC champ is NOT. A top 4 seed IMHO.

UGA win they stay ahead of us and Bama is either out or 10/11.

Bama win and they are 4 with UGA 5 and we could get shuffled down accordingly.

---

Bama won't jump from 10 to 4 by beating Georgia with two losses. I think it's unlikely they'd have either team ahead of us with two losses.

Unlike last year the conference champions are not guaranteed the top 4 seeds.

---

I think you need to look at it a little bit differently: Alabama will have 11 wins just like we do with a win.

Quote:

---

If Bama wins, we potentially move ahead of UGA.

If BYU beats Tech, we move ahead of them.

---

we stay below tech and UGA no matter what

fc2112 said:

---

In short, we want the lowest ranked team in each CCG to win.

We will move ahead of Ole Miss to #6.

If Bama wins, we potentially move ahead of UGA.

If BYU beats Tech, we move ahead of them.

With tOSU and IU, we probably do not move ahead of whoever loses that game.

So with those two upsets, we could get back to #4 and a bye.

---

Not sure we want to sit for a month before our next game. I think we want the #5 slot hosting G5 then possibly Tceh in the Cotton Bowl.

Or the #6 slot hosting G5 and heading to the Orange to play Indiana possibly.