Break down the three biggest potential scenarios after the regular season and the SEC Championship Game (SECCG):
Scenario 1: The Dream Run (13-0 SEC Champs)
Scenario 1: The Dream Run (13-0 SEC Champs)
- Result: Beat Texas + Win the SEC Championship Game
- Final Record: 13-0
- Prediction: Seed #1 or #2
- Rationale: An undefeated SEC Champion is almost certainly guaranteed a top-two seed. The only question is if another Power 4 unbeaten team (like an 13-0 Big Ten Champion, potentially Ohio State or Indiana) has a resume strong enough to jump us. Our strength of schedule, highlighted by the Notre Dame win and a final victory over a ranked Texas team, followed by the SECCG win, makes a compelling case for the overall #1 seed and a first-round bye.
- Result: Beat Texas + Lose the SEC Championship Game
- Final Record: 12-1
- Prediction: Seed #3, #4, or #5
- Rationale: This is where it gets spicy. A 12-1 SEC team that loses a close title game is an absolute lock for the CFP.
- The Bye Question: Could we still grab a top-4 bye? If our SECCG opponent (the winner) finishes 13-0, they get a bye. If the other major conferences have unbeatens (e.g., a 13-0 Big Ten champ), we are likely to be the highest-ranked one-loss team, likely falling to #5 or #6 and hosting a first-round game.
- Best Case for a Bye: If there is chaos in other conferences (e.g., the Big Ten champ has two losses, or the Pac-12/ACC champions are ranked lower), we could potentially sneak in at #4 for the last bye. Losing the SECCG, however, almost certainly drops us out of the top two.
- Result: Run out of time against Texas
- Final Record: 11-1 (Regular Season)
- Prediction: Seed #5, #6, or #7
- Rationale: A loss to Texas drops us to 11-1 and keeps us out of the SEC Championship Game (assuming the tiebreakers go against us, which is possible depending on how Ole Miss/Alabama finished).
- Lock for the CFP: An 11-1 SEC team that includes a win over Notre Dame and a one-loss record (our only loss being to a ranked Texas) is still a guaranteed at-large bid.
- The Seeding: Since we wouldn't have the conference championship bump, we would be judged solely on our resume. We would likely be ranked behind any undefeated Power 4 champion and potentially any one-loss Power 4 champion. This scenario puts us squarely in the host role for the first round, likely playing the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion or a lower-ranked two-loss Power 4 team. We'd definitely be better off than a 10-2 SEC team, but the bye is almost certainly off the table.