Pretty dang close to where Vegas has us at the moment

499 predicted yards!

You have that with lower penalties and the same defense - we'll roll clanga

Thanks for doing this.

Good to have you back, Spreadsheet!

tbis is a maturity measuring stick kind of game. mississippi st is much improved but we should roll them if we come out focused and clean up our self inflicted wounds. teams aspiring to be great take care of their business, my hope is we will see a very business like approach to this game and dominate from start to finish

Our 2nd half scoring is atrocious. The H1 vs H2 disparity is an issue (proverbial if we don't win Q2 and by a large amount, trouble will brew) and needs to get fixed IMO or we will lose a game due to this reason alone.

Thankfully only game 4 for a medium sample size, but hoping to see improvement the next couple of games.

90ags said:

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Our 2nd half scoring is atrocious. The H1 vs H2 disparity is an issue (proverbial if we don't win Q2 and by a large amount, trouble will brew) and needs to get fixed IMO or we will lose a game due to this reason alone.

Thankfully only game 4 for a medium sample size, but hoping to see improvement the next couple of games.

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2 of 4 games were 'cupcake' games where the 4th quarter is almost always 'garbage time' stats.

We live in a Machine Learning Era.

We will combine the actual numbers with SpreadsheetAg's numbers and turn that into training data for the model.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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tbis is a maturity measuring stick kind of game. mississippi st is much improved but we should roll them if we come out focused and clean up our self inflicted wounds. teams aspiring to be great take care of their business, my hope is we will see a very business like approach to this game and dominate from start to finish

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The one thing I don't like is their team is full of Jrs and Srs (again)... we've historically had trouble with veteran teams even if they were a class below us talent wise.

Definitely true, but we also have a much more veteran 2 deep than we've had in recent years. Penalties have been an issue, but hoping we can clean that up and play how we should based on that experience and coaching.

Your sim is in line with my prediction: 35-38 for the Ags and around 21 for the Bulldogs. Won't be surprised if it's closer, but also VERY glad this one's at home and not in StarkVegas. That would make me far less optimistic.

Just win

Nm

Super job
Super appreciate
We dont know if O or D wins but its a nice "problem" to have

Pumpkinhead said:

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90ags said:

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Our 2nd half scoring is atrocious. The H1 vs H2 disparity is an issue (proverbial if we don't win Q2 and by a large amount, trouble will brew) and needs to get fixed IMO or we will lose a game due to this reason alone.

Thankfully only game 4 for a medium sample size, but hoping to see improvement the next couple of games.

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2 of 4 games were 'cupcake' games where the 4th quarter is almost always 'garbage time' stats.

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This is a problem when using just ai or just personal feelings for evaluating things like sports results. Just numbers don't tell the entire story. Especially at the start of the season where coaches are trying to find the right combination of players and not playing the type of team we will play the rest of the season.

Thank you!

Their 230 lb running back is a beast. Better stop him.

Great work

Thank you

zooguy96 said:

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Their 230 lb running back is a beast. Better stop him.

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Where we struggle in the run game is failing outside contain and allowing a team to get to the edge. I haven't watched much of Miss St., but that's typically not the game of a 230lb back. After last week, their run game isn't as concerning. It's they were much more balanced and consistent in moving the chains.

Their RB1 is named Fluff?

fc2112 said:

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Their RB1 is named Fluff?

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He went 23 carries for 134 yards and 2 TDs against Tennessee. He's not going to break an 80 yarder but he's a bruiser that we'll need to gang tackle.

SpreadsheetAg, you're amazing... we appreciate your work!!

I asked AI to re-rank the Top 25 based only on FBS Stats, Current Record, current SOS and ignore and future probabilistic scenarios.

Then I asked it to re-rank those 25 teams based on remaining schedule and probability to win each game....

We're winning the natty!

Rank Team Current Record | Projected Final Record | Key Insights on Remaining Schedule
1 Texas A&M 4-0 | 11-1 | Easy SEC back-half (e.g., 85% vs. Auburn) fuels top projection.
2 Oregon 5-0 | 11-1 | Penn State win bolsters; Michigan/Ohio State (~60%) challenge.
3 Ohio State 4-0 | 11-1 | Dominant; strong odds vs. Penn State/Michigan (75%+).
4 Ole Miss 5-0 | 11-1 | LSU upset helps; tough Alabama (~45%) caps ceiling.
5 Miami (FL) 5-0 | 10-2 | Favorable ACC; Florida State (~64%) toughest hurdle.
6 Oklahoma 5-0 | 10-2 | SEC gauntlet; Texas/Alabama (~50%) temper projection.
7 Indiana 5-0 | 10-2 | Big Ten sleeper; Penn State road game (~40%) looms.
8 Alabama 3-1 | 9-3 | Georgia win shines; easiest slate (90%+ vs. most) lifts.
9 Texas 4-1 | 9-3 | SEC/Big 12 mix; Oklahoma (~66%) pivotal.
10 Georgia 3-1 | 9-3 | Alabama loss hurts; strong home odds (80%+ vs. Tennessee/Ole Miss).
11 Penn State 4-1 | 9-3 | Oregon loss stings; Ohio State (~55%) toughens finish.
12 Tennessee 4-1 | 9-3 | Bye resets; Alabama (~66%) critical for SEC standing.
13 LSU 4-1 | 9-3 | Ole Miss loss drags; Alabama/Georgia (~40%) brutal.
14 Michigan 4-1 | 9-3 | Toughest SOS; Oregon/Ohio State (~50%) limit upside.
15 Illinois 4-1 | 9-3 | USC win boosts; Penn State/Ohio State (~45%) challenge.
16 Missouri 4-1 | 9-3 | SEC grind; Georgia (~52%) tests resilience.
17 Florida State 3-1 | 8-4 | Virginia upset hurts; Miami (~36%) key for rebound.
18 USC 4-1 | 8-4 | Illinois loss exposes; Notre Dame/Ohio State (~40%) tough.
19 Iowa State 4-1 | 8-4 | Steady Big 12; Texas (~48%) a hurdle.
20 Texas Tech 4-1 | 8-4 | Easier slate; BYU (~51%) poses upset risk.
21 Georgia Tech 5-0 | 8-4 | Undefeated but faces regression vs. Miami/Clemson (~45%).
22 BYU 4-0 | 8-4 | Big 12 opener solid; Utah (~50%) tests depth.
23 Virginia 4-0 | 8-4 | Florida State upset inflates; Miami (~35%) toughens ACC.
24 Vanderbilt 5-0 | 8-4 | Survival mode; Alabama/Tennessee (<50%) limit ceiling.
25 Notre Dame 2-2 | 7-5 | High SOS but easy remaining (80%+ vs. most) keeps alive.


#RATPOISON

What did u do with the lurker?? Where is he!?

Pleasantly surprised we have a top 25 defense. Shutting down Auburn must have moved the needle quite a bit.

Shameless bump

Remind me, what is the red and blue text for?

A is A said:

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Remind me, what is the red and blue text for?

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Top 25 = Blue
Bottom 30-ish = Red

I probably need to update the conditional formatting since new teams have been added to FBS bringing the total number to 136

infinity ag said:

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We live in a Machine Learning Era.

We will combine the actual numbers with SpreadsheetAg's numbers and turn that into training data for the model.

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I was talking to a sports analyst about this, and the ability of AI video to scout a team for an obvious tell is getting really good. You can ask AI video watchers to pick up on guys lining up wrong now giving the play away.

Craz.

BusterAg said:

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infinity ag said:

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We live in a Machine Learning Era.

We will combine the actual numbers with SpreadsheetAg's numbers and turn that into training data for the model.

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I was talking to a sports analyst about this, and the ability of AI video to scout a team for an obvious tell is getting really good. You can ask AI video watchers to pick up on guys lining up wrong now giving the play away.

Craz.

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That could take sign stealing to a whole new levell

And great use of AI! Did you give any Aggie bias in your prompt?

Mississippi State
Passing Yards: 180
Rushing yards: 100
Total yards: 280
Turnovers: 1
Points: 17

Texas A&M
Passing yards: 270
Rushing yards: 210
Total yards: 480
Turnovers: 0
Points: 34

91Challenger said:

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And great use of AI! Did you give any Aggie bias in your prompt?

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Nope

Yards and points for the Aggies was very close.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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Shameless bump

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Your model under valued our defense!