Emilio Fantastico said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Ghost of Bisbee said:

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greg.w.h said:

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dcg4403 said:

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DTX_12 said:

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Believing this line would require our fans to believe our team might actually be good which is hard for a lot of people.

That said if I was betting I'd probably take state and the points.

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We are 4-0 and yet 50% of the fans are *****ing and moaning. Some people enjoy living in negativity and fear. I am with Elko....we should celebrate this team and effort. They are going places so quit freaking tearing down this team and coaches.

That's a big line. I wouldn't touch it on either side. If offense plays 4 quarters and defense does an Auburn then that's an easy cover. But we have yet to see a game like that. If we can stop with the penalties, our offense looks entirely different. So much to be happy about.

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we have been 4-0 before and imploded repeatedly in October and November. I'm enjoying the wins but also know this is the beginning not the end…

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And who were our first 4 teams in 2016?

Also, Tennessee ended up being severely overrated

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#16 UCLA
PVAM
Auburn
#17 Arkansas

We were also 5-0 to open 2014 and 2015 with wins over ranked teams. That didn't translate to later in the season though.

We've seen this before, with early wins in close games against teams we thought were good. Yeah Tennessee was overrated in hindsight, but ND and Auburn could be too. This team has done well, but the hardest games on our schedule are yet to come.

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We may have played two ranked (at the time) teams. But UCLA finished 4-8 and Arky finished 7-6 and unranked. Auburn ended up the best that year at 8-5.

I think ND has a very good chance to run the table and go 10-2 because they look a lot better than anyone left on their schedule. Auburn is an 8-4 team at best (especially after getting jobbed at OU) so I don't really see how they are that "overrated". They will win all four of their OOC games and most likely go either 4-4 or 3-5 in the SEC unless discontent sets in and they collapse.

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We know how those teams finished because the season is over. We have no idea where ND and Auburn will finish because we're not even halfway there.

And this exact same reasoning was brought out at the time: "We beat _____ ranked #_ and we're 5-0! Can't you people be happy?!" only for it all to fall apart in October/November. Hell, we had the same reasoning last year at 7-1 coming off a win against LSU. How'd that turn out?

This team has some great potential, but that doesn't mean we can't lose to a team that will eventually go .500 or not even make a bowl this season, much less MSU. Until we're 16-0, no win is guaranteed.

Emilio Fantastico said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Ghost of Bisbee said:

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greg.w.h said:

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dcg4403 said:

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DTX_12 said:

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Believing this line would require our fans to believe our team might actually be good which is hard for a lot of people.

That said if I was betting I'd probably take state and the points.

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We are 4-0 and yet 50% of the fans are *****ing and moaning. Some people enjoy living in negativity and fear. I am with Elko....we should celebrate this team and effort. They are going places so quit freaking tearing down this team and coaches.

That's a big line. I wouldn't touch it on either side. If offense plays 4 quarters and defense does an Auburn then that's an easy cover. But we have yet to see a game like that. If we can stop with the penalties, our offense looks entirely different. So much to be happy about.

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we have been 4-0 before and imploded repeatedly in October and November. I'm enjoying the wins but also know this is the beginning not the end…

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And who were our first 4 teams in 2016?

Also, Tennessee ended up being severely overrated

---

#16 UCLA
PVAM
Auburn
#17 Arkansas

We were also 5-0 to open 2014 and 2015 with wins over ranked teams. That didn't translate to later in the season though.

We've seen this before, with early wins in close games against teams we thought were good. Yeah Tennessee was overrated in hindsight, but ND and Auburn could be too. This team has done well, but the hardest games on our schedule are yet to come.

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We may have played two ranked (at the time) teams. But UCLA finished 4-8 and Arky finished 7-6 and unranked. Auburn ended up the best that year at 8-5.

I think ND has a very good chance to run the table and go 10-2 because they look a lot better than anyone left on their schedule. Auburn is an 8-4 team at best (especially after getting jobbed at OU) so I don't really see how they are that "overrated". They will win all four of their OOC games and most likely go either 4-4 or 3-5 in the SEC unless discontent sets in and they collapse.

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Exactly this. Auburn was the best of the bunch in that early schedule run in 2016 and that's not saying much at all

What's different this year imo:
1) added depth across almost every position
2) team has shown multiple ways to win games and has not folded
3) last year teams had 2 QBs to figure out and game planning against Marcel just wasn't a thing until halfway through the season when we started losing more

It's a different feeling about this team for me this year.
UCLA was objectively bad both years we played them. Arkansas we didn't really know, I'll admit that. UCLA and Arkansas though are not ND at night who nearly beat Miami who is looking strong

What's the same this year is that we're saying, "What's different this year is..."

I would absolutely love for this team to go out and win it all, or even just make the playoffs. Few things would make me happier, but I'm not going get all hyped up 4 games into a season. I know we're inconsistent on both sides of the ball and could just as easily have an off day on both sides as a great day. There were a lot of positives from last weekend, but the season is still young. Again, until we're holding hardware, I remain skeptical.

MSU is injured at corner also. They are going to get torched.

If the A&M team total is 35 or lower, then "over" is the best bet on this game.

We are becoming a permanent fixture in Scott Van Pelt's Bad Beats.

Not saying they won't, but I am tempering my expectations for the season.

-16 now

Artorias said:

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State is no slouch this year. They are a dangerous team. We better be ready to play.

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We have tended to lose to them when we've been better. I'm legit behind this team and think playoffs are a very real goal. But we still have a stumble ahead of us (as all growing teams do) and wouldn't be crazy to think it could happen here (as it has before). I bet there are some handicappers there taking MSU and the money line for max payout.

Maybe, just maybe lady luck will be on our side this year much in the same way she was with TCU two years ago. Or was it three years ago now....can't remember.

Logos Stick said:

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-16 now

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Fanduel is still showing -14.5 right now. Either way an insane amount of points.

Logos Stick said:

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-16 now

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Logos Stick said:

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-16 now

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From an open of -12.5, this shows a TON of action on A&M. I know State has several players dinged up after the UT game but is there something else out there pushing the action?

Who?mikejones! said:

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Logos Stick said:

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-16 now

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I'm taking A&M. We win 34-10 with 7 MSST points coming late in the fourth

It's A&M from start to finish..

The books only care that they safely take down the vig…

boyfriend said:

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Logos Stick said:

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-16 now

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Fanduel is still showing -14.5 right now. Either way an insane amount of points.

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Gotcha. I'm on Bovada

Took MSSt @ +14.5, I actually like the hook in this one

carl spacklers hat said:

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Logos Stick said:

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-16 now

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From an open of -12.5, this shows a TON of action on A&M. I know State has several players dinged up after the UT game but is there something else out there pushing the action?

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Somebody knows something. I hope they're right

carl spacklers hat said:

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I would load up on Miss St at that line. Too many points. But, I also lose about 80-85% of the time when I gamble (which is why I don't do it), so taking the opposite is almost a sure thing.

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Have you tried the "bet the opposite of your instincts" method? If you're losing 80% of your bets you might wanna try . I've had some luck w that before.

With the movement to a bigger spread money is still coming in on A&M, I just don't understand who is doing it. We're going to win, but are terrible ats. This is way too big unless insiders knows something big we don't

I haven't but I joke with friends that if they want to win at gambling, stake me x amount and then take the opposite of whatever I bet and get rich. So I just run the book now.

BCO07 said:

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With the movement to a bigger spread money is still coming in on A&M, I just don't understand who is doing it. We're going to win, but are terrible ats. This is way too big unless insiders knows something big we don't

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Think it's just people watching the games. Despite what this forum thinks we just played one of the best games we've played in the last decade against Auburn last Saturday. If we play that way again we are going to destroy state. Tennessee is not that good.

BCO07 said:

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With the movement to a bigger spread money is still coming in on A&M, I just don't understand who is doing it. We're going to win, but are terrible ats. This is way too big unless insiders knows something big we don't

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- Miss State is banged up coming off a tough loss, two OL now out with injuries plus starting Safety, etc.

- First road game of the season for Miss State

- not only first road game of season for Miss State but a Night road game

- A&M is very good and is the better and more talented team even if Miss State fully healthy (which they are not)

Objectively, the spread has to be Miss State + At least double digits. You can argue whether +14.5 is too much.

Both starting OT are listed as doubtful/out. Issues are two-fold:

1. Their ability to block Aggie edge rushers
2. False Starts in a manic Kyle night game

edit: Apparently Shapen has been sacked 11 times so far this year as well, so that'll exacerbate those numbers if he can't get rid of the ball quickly / take off with it

Couple books are at 16.5.

AgWhoop2015 said:

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Both starting OT are listed as doubtful/out. Issues are two-fold:

1. Their ability to block Aggie edge rushers
2. False Starts in a manic Kyle night game

edit: Apparently Shapen has been sacked 11 times so far this year as well, so that'll exacerbate those numbers if he can't get rid of the ball quickly / take off with it

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Yeah…this should be a beating. Our D should have a field day. We should get some nice explosive plays with their safety questionable/out. I would not be shocked if second team gets playing time in the 4th

Rat poison

This has trap game written all over it.

AgsMnn said:

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This has trap game written all over it.

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lol no, trap game would be on the road with a big matchup coming the following week

AgsMnn said:

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This has trap game written all over it.

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I agree. Been feeling it since we barely beat Auburn.

Not first road game, they played at Southern Miss to open season, but yeah, atmosphere should be a little more hostile than what they experienced in Hattiesburg

This is definitely the type of game we historically lose and this is usually where the annual Aggie roller coaster derail begins