I know we didn't play last week but most of our opponents did and that will affect our power ratings/odds to win. Interesting to see the movement on this week to week. The Florida and South Carolina games have seen our win percentages increase the most from the beginning of the year (+12% and +14%). Here is to hoping we can take care of the next 3 at home!

https://autzenzoo.com/new-college-football-power-ranking-marred-by-major-flaw-01jxb170vnwb

Yeah, I know he has mentioned he is constantly tweaking his model to weight things differently (including garbage time stats being practically irrelevant). Most of these models will disproportionally weight recruiting rankings, which is probably the safest metric, but we all know it is not foolproof (look at Jimbo's 2022/2023 teams).

its surprising only 26% change at ut. I think if we can score 21 we win that game

Agreed. From watching both teams play, I would expect that one to be a toss up.

rwhitlock3 said:

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Yeah, I know he has mentioned he is constantly tweaking his model to weight things differently (including garbage time stats being practically irrelevant). Most of these models will disproportionally weight recruiting rankings, which is probably the safest metric, but we all know it is not foolproof (look at Jimbo's 2022/2023 teams).

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I am not complaining. The predictive genre is always based on looking back not forward.

South Carolina and Texas are way way off. SC will be a tough game unless Sellers gets injured. And there is no chance we have that small of a win % chance against Texas. None.

greg.w.h said:

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rwhitlock3 said:

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Yeah, I know he has mentioned he is constantly tweaking his model to weight things differently (including garbage time stats being practically irrelevant). Most of these models will disproportionally weight recruiting rankings, which is probably the safest metric, but we all know it is not foolproof (look at Jimbo's 2022/2023 teams).

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I am not complaining. The predictive genre is always based on looking back not forward.

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All predictive modeling is based on past data...


Only Zoltar knows the future!

sleepybeagle said:

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greg.w.h said:

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rwhitlock3 said:

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Yeah, I know he has mentioned he is constantly tweaking his model to weight things differently (including garbage time stats being practically irrelevant). Most of these models will disproportionally weight recruiting rankings, which is probably the safest metric, but we all know it is not foolproof (look at Jimbo's 2022/2023 teams).

---

I am not complaining. The predictive genre is always based on looking back not forward.

---

All predictive modeling is based on past data...


Only Zoltar knows the future!

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Past results do not predict future performance…ask the turkey!!!

9% chance we lose every remaining away game this year. That would SUCK!!!

How did our special teams rating decrease by 12 during a bye week?

Gigemags382 said:

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How did our special teams rating decrease by 12 during a bye week?

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Non-transparent, proprietary ratings are to blame…

sleepybeagle said:

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greg.w.h said:

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rwhitlock3 said:

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Yeah, I know he has mentioned he is constantly tweaking his model to weight things differently (including garbage time stats being practically irrelevant). Most of these models will disproportionally weight recruiting rankings, which is probably the safest metric, but we all know it is not foolproof (look at Jimbo's 2022/2023 teams).

---

I am not complaining. The predictive genre is always based on looking back not forward.

---

All predictive modeling is based on past data...


Only Zoltar knows the future!

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All Data is past data. We have yet to find a way to record data before it happens

bend light rays around the sun