Gaw617 said:
If you are predicting 8-4 then I think you are predicting Elko in the hot seat going into year 3, recruiting falling off, and NIL being reduced. This team has to go 9-3 or better to keep momentum if not it falls apart pretty quickly in my opinion.
I am not sure that enough data exists to accurately gauge this statement as factual for us or for any other team. If anything, it may be reversed order.
I hypothesize that NIL will play a more important role in recruiting going forward than who is the head coach. If they're only in it for the money, then it won't matter who's calling the plays --after all, after a year or two they can jump ship. Thus, given a certain level of NIL money, recruiting becomes more or less a fixed function.
Now if a bad coach reduces NIL money, that might play a role in recruiting, but only because of the money angle, not the coaching angle. But we've only had... what, three years of NIL? Not sure the data set is long and large enough to crunch numbers.
I am having a vision of a model that could crunch these numbers, but that is immaterial to the original point of the whole thread. No one is going anywhere at 8-4 or even 7-5 or 6-6 (!!!). There's too much money going out the door already (JFF does NOT mean Johnny Freaking Football, it means...somebody else). Beat tu in the next two years and having a winning record, and Elko gets an extension. No movement until Year Four minimum unless we trend downwards from 8-4 each year --and even then, going 9-3 with a tu win in Year Four likely gets two more years.
