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Is 1 five star recruits per year the new norm?

2,590 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by 2thFixinAg
Aggie Michael
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If we use the 247 composite :

Elko brought in 1 five star for 2024 (Terry Bussey) and one five star for 2025 (Jerome Myles).

Do we think this is the new norm? Yearly we lose more talent than we get in terms of blue chip recruits (4/5 stars) and as a result we have been dropping in the 247 talent ranking index (talent on roster).

Interesting in thoughts if we will turn this around or if this is the new norm.
beerad12man
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Lamont Rogers was a 5 star for abut 75% of the process, including when we signed him.

It's way too early. 2024 was a transition class. 2025 was the first full class. Calling anything the new norm with such little data would be pure speculation. If Elko can actually win on the field unlike Fisher/Sumlin or his first season, our recruiting has no limitations.

I look more towards national top 100 guys than 5 stars, either way. The depths of the class rather than the top 2, 3 or 4 guys. 2026 is off to a really good start with highly rated commits.
beerad12man
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And if 2026 closes the way many expect, our talent will start to trend upwards beginning next year. It's not surprising that a coach who went 20-17 in his last 3 years started to slip with the 2023 class, and the 2024 transition class didn't yield top 5 or even top 10 results.

We were 10th in the team talent composite in 2024.

We'll likely be in the 10-12 range in 2025. Hard to say exactly.

At the current rate, we'll trend back closer to 6-9 range by 2026, depending on how well it closes.
wangus12
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Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
nu awlins ag
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wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
Yup, only 3 top 100 kids are signing today. NSD has definitely lost its shine.
Ugly
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nu awlins ag said:

wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
Yup, only 3 top 100 kids are signing today. NSD has definitely lost its shine.
I honestly completely forgot it was NSD today. This sport has certainly changed.
Ugly
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beerad12man said:

And if 2026 closes the way many expect, our talent will start to trend upwards beginning next year. It's not surprising that a coach who went 20-17 in his last 3 years started to slip with the 2023 class, and the 2024 transition class didn't yield top 5 or even top 10 results.

We were 10th in the team talent composite in 2024.

We'll likely be in the 10-12 range in 2025. Hard to say exactly.

At the current rate, we'll trend back closer to 6-9 range by 2026, depending on how well it closes.
The problem with this is that a top 10 class just gets your foot in the door in the SEC right now. 8 of the top 11 teams in the (247) composite right now are in the SEC. That means that a solid half of the SEC is effectively recruits at a top 10 level. Or to say it in terms that this board can understand better, if we are only recruiting in the top 10, then going 4-4 in-conference is "winning the games we should".
TexanJeff
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I don't think so

These are the transition years of a new coach. But at some point NIL is not enough got to get some wins.

But we also need our 5 stars to play like their ranking and not like Speedy Noil or Jorrie Adams.
one safe place
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Ugly said:

nu awlins ag said:

wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
Yup, only 3 top 100 kids are signing today. NSD has definitely lost its shine.
I honestly completely forgot it was NSD today. This sport has certainly changed.
Me too. Used to stay tuned in most of the day to see which athlete had faxed in their LOI. I suppose now the mercenaries fax in their list of demands.
Atreides Ornithopter
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I just want 3 star DBs that can play zone and man. 3 Star OL that can run and pass block. And 3 star QBs thay play like Johnny and have 3 star WR like Mike Evans to throw to. Just this.
Emilio Fantastico
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Getting 1 5-star is fine as long as the class is stacked with high 4-stars that just missed the 5-star cut.

What good is 3 or 4 5-stars if the rest of the class is lower rated 4-stars and 3-stars?

You need depth of high level talent that plays like high level talent. We seems to struggle with both of those aspects.
drink32
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To your point, the 2025 class has a few that are very high 4 stars: Sims, Sanders, Armstrong, to go along with Myles and Rogers. It's a REALLY good class.

Also, it is much more balanced than the 2022 class as far as position groups go. It is missing the 5 star QB, as he flipped late to USC. But otherwise, it's a fantastic class and hopefully a sign of things to come for 2026 and beyond.
levypantsEOY
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beerad12man said:


At the current rate, we'll trend back closer to 6-9 range by 2026, depending on how well it closes.


What "current rate" are you using here? To OP's point, the program is losing talent ranking year to year, not gaining it.
Or does the "current rate" imply Elko somehow pulls off a ten win season and suddenly the Ags are cool again?
AggieDub04
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There were two composite 5* in 2025. Outside of the top 2/3 classes each year the most anyone ever gets is 2 or 3, sometimes 4 so I'd expect A&M to be in the 2-3 range and sometimes hit 4. This is where schools like LSU, Tennessee, Oregon, etc. have been the past few years.
NyAggie
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nu awlins ag said:

wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
Yup, only 3 top 100 kids are signing today. NSD has definitely lost its shine.


I, for one, am happy signing day is in December now because it saves me 2 months of worrying about recruits decommitting
AgLA06
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wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
I guess. Works both ways.

To me it's more it's hard to get excited when many of our higher rated recruits have done less for us than 3* and 4*s the last 10 years. And have definitely been more likely to end up in a police report.

A proven 3* or 4* transfer is more likely to make an impact these days and almost certainly will be less drama.
Emilio Fantastico
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drink32 said:

To your point, the 2025 class has a few that are very high 4 stars: Sims, Sanders, Armstrong, to go along with Myles and Rogers. It's a REALLY good class.

Also, it is much more balanced than the 2022 class as far as position groups go. It is missing the 5 star QB, as he flipped late to USC. But otherwise, it's a fantastic class and hopefully a sign of things to come for 2026 and beyond.
And Elko was able to recover somewhat from that with the 2026 kid from Florida that decommitted from Michigan and reclassified to 2025. He would have been close to a 5-star in the 2026 class had he not reclassified and we already have a 5-star 2026 QB committed so the future looks pretty good there.
Charlie 31
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Ugly said:

nu awlins ag said:

wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
Yup, only 3 top 100 kids are signing today. NSD has definitely lost its shine.
I honestly completely forgot it was NSD today. This sport has certainly changed.
Today is National Signing Day?
12Power
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Who is the 5 star 2026 QB? Only see the 92 rated 4 star. Thanks
Faustus
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TexanJeff said:

I don't think so

These are the transition years of a new coach. But at some point NIL is not enough got to get some wins.

But we also need our 5 stars to play like their ranking and not like Speedy Noil or Jorrie Adams.


Jorrie Adams still catching bullets two decades later. There needs to be a SOL on these things.
NoahAg
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OP must be new here. Getting ANY 5 stars used to be unheard of. They were few and far between. Check out our signees prior to Sumlin.
CC00
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Just to share the info since I looked it up:

247 composite
5 - Texas
4 - Georgia
3 - Alabama, Ohio State
2 - Oregon, Michigan, LSU
1 - Tennessee, OU, A&M, USC
(25 total)

8 (!) from Texas - 4 to Texas, 1 each to Alabama, Ohio State, OU, Oregon


If you expand to top 50 players (an attempt to grab the players that have one service that doesn't like them like Lamont Rogers)

6 - Texas
5 - Georgia
4 - Alabama, Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State
3 - LSU, Auburn
2 - Tennessee, A&M, Florida, USC
1 - OU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Iowa, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Colorado, Mizzou, Georgia Tech

This seems about who we are right now.

Missing: Penn State - they have a good class but still....

25 of the top 150 are from Texas (seems unlikely if the whole country was evaluated properly but that's another subject).
A&M landed 3. So 3 of the top 25 players from Texas.
We did the same last year (3 of top 25) in a coaching transition.
5 of 25 in 2023 with Jimbo flailing to a #15 class.

Anyway - just info since I had the time....

My opinion - the portal makes this not as singly important as it used to be but the trends are there to be running second place in Texas for a while. It's not like those in Austin won't get their share from the portal.
SECTAMU#1
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No program secured more five-star prospects than the Longhorns, who signed five of them, a full one-fifth of their 25-man class in 2025.

As long as this keeps happening, I wouldn't count on much more than 1 five star.
The Lost
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NyAggie said:

nu awlins ag said:

wangus12 said:

Hard to get to worked up about recruiting when they all are up for grabs at the end of every season
Yup, only 3 top 100 kids are signing today. NSD has definitely lost its shine.


I, for one, am happy signing day is in December now because it saves me 2 months of worrying about recruits decommitting


Honestly even less important than that with multiple 5 stars in the portal after freshman year. Some people are spending lots of money to develop a kid for a year or two before they transfer.

Should honestly make sure all 5 stars play enough to not redshirt each year
greg.w.h
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So…stars don't matter???
33
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Aggie Michael said:


Do we think this is the new norm?

Interesting in thoughts if we will turn this around or if this is the new norm.

What was the old norm?
"So long as an opinion is strongly rooted in the feelings, it gains rather than loses in stability by having a preponderating weight of argument against it."

- John Stuart Mill, 1869
greg.w.h
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33 said:

Aggie Michael said:


Do we think this is the new norm?

Interesting in thoughts if we will turn this around or if this is the new norm.

What was the old norm?
Sucking hind teat.
2thFixinAg
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I think a better bellwether would be retention and acquistition of 5stars on a 3 year count.

did the 5 stars stay at the same school and play their third year?
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