Looking at the three remaining weeks on the schedule to try to get a sense of the game left of consequence that could impact the CFP ranking and our ability to get into the top 12 (naturally in addition to our games). Clearly week to week the dynamic will change as teams win/lose, but this is a snapshot as of now of impactful match-ups:

This week:
Tennessee vs Georgia - No explanation needed. Needed Tennessee to lose this game or possible Vandy game.
Kansas vs BYU - Need BYU to lose
Texas vs Arkansas - suck it sips

Week 2:
Penn St vs Minn - Would be nice to see Penn St lose. Not a real chance they lose two games over the next three weeks so probably doesn't matter. But would still be nice if they had 2 losses.
Indiana vs Oh St. - Obvious reasons. A play-off match-up before the play-offs. Should be a great and telling game.
BYU vs Az St - Need to BYU to lose. Az St is a good enough team and could get it done.
ND Vs Army - Another fun game. Army legit? Do we want NS SOS to be tarnished?

Week 3:
Georgia vs Georgia Tech - Thinking Georgia is probably going to be out of it at this point, but still would like to see King/Lane do their thing.
Miami vs Syracuse - Lose Miami! Syracuse could do it.
Oregon vs Washington - Washington is terrible this year, but still a rivalry. Probably no real impact thought either way.
Tenn vs Vandy - Let's go Pimps!
ND Vs USC - USC is bad, but another rivalry game where anything can happen
Mich vs Oh St - No comment necessary. But I don't think Mich can overcome there own ineptude even for the rivalry match.
Bama vs Auburn - Same as above.

Let's of good football to watch (and some bad....)

aglaes said:

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The 2 biggest games of consequence:
Week 2: A&M at Auburn
Week 3: A&M vs tu

Win those 2 and I think we should be in, as long as we don't get blown out in SEC Championship

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Well, didn't think that really needed to be said, yet.....

Thanks CPT Obvious

Cojack said:

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Thanks CPT Obvious

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Not obvious to Stinky....

In regards to byu... you want to limit the big 12 to just 1 team. Byu winning out will probably accomplish that.

Kind of a moot point... basically only chance we have is to win out, which guarantees a spot. Anything short of winning out requires a catastrophic next few weeks.

I think you want Georgia to lose one more and Tennessee to have one loss going to sec championship

Need Missouri to beat South Carolina to win a tie-break against LSU for SEC champ game in case Auburn beats Bama and A&M loses last game.

jt16 said:

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I think you want Georgia to lose one more and Tennessee to have one loss going to sec championship

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Yea, one more loss and Georgia is done. Tennessee also has a tough game vs Vandy to close out regular season. Possible they lose to Georgia and then also to Vandy in last game of the season? That would definitely knock them out.

Not Coach Jimbo said:

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In regards to byu... you want to limit the big 12 to just 1 team. Byu winning out will probably accomplish that.

Kind of a moot point... basically only chance we have is to win out, which guarantees a spot. Anything short of winning out requires a catastrophic next few weeks.

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Yes, winning out is the only real path. Could be a case where we lose the SEC championship game, but would be tough scenario to pull off. Really curious to see how the committee ends up treating conference champ losers.

Yeah, I don't think I agree with Tenn losing to UGA. I think I would rather eliminate UGA and lower Miss and Texas SOS. A 2 loss Tenn spells trouble for a 10-2 team that loses CCG. 1. It probably puts Bama in CCG and a loss to them makes losing team 10-3 vs a Tenn team that is 10-2 that beat Bama. Would be tough to put 10-3 team in over 10-2 Tenn.

Go Hogs

Ohio ST/ Indiana - I just don't think it matters. 10-2 OSU is in playoff. No questions asked. 11-1 Indiana is most likely in.

LSU/ Vandy - definitely want LSU but this game worries me. Both improves our SOS and hurts Texas.
SC/Mizzou - does it matter more that you beat a top 20 team or lost to a top 20 team for playoff. Seems like they are rewarding wins more than hurting losses. Slight Mizzou fan but I think SC rolls them by 30.

Ark/Mizzou - I believe if all these teams end 10-2, then this game could mean difference in facing LSU (Ark win) and Bama (Mizzou) win. I would rather play LSU.

Tenn/Vandy - if Tenn loses to UGA we are rooting for Vandy. Keep eliminating teams

Bama/Auburn - keep eliminating teams

aglaes said:

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The 2 biggest games of consequence:
Week 2: A&M at Auburn
Week 3: A&M vs tu

Win those 2 and I think we should be in, as long as we don't get blown out in SEC Championship

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We could try winning it and taking the bye…

aglaes said:

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The 2 biggest games of consequence:
Week 2: A&M at Auburn
Week 3: A&M vs tu

Win those 2 and I think we should be in, as long as we don't get blown out in SEC Championship

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This exchange reminded of the below:

I believe this is accurate. Can run any scenario.

http://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

LatinAggie1997 said:

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aglaes said:

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The 2 biggest games of consequence:
Week 2: A&M at Auburn
Week 3: A&M vs tu

Win those 2 and I think we should be in, as long as we don't get blown out in SEC Championship

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This exchange reminded of the below:

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Haha love it.

Let's wake the Ws straight to the CFP

bearcat said:

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Yeah, I don't think I agree with Tenn losing to UGA. I think I would rather eliminate UGA and lower Miss and Texas SOS. A 2 loss Tenn spells trouble for a 10-2 team that loses CCG. 1. It probably puts Bama in CCG and a loss to them makes losing team 10-3 vs a Tenn team that is 10-2 that beat Bama. Would be tough to put 10-3 team in over 10-2 Tenn.

Go Hogs

Ohio ST/ Indiana - I just don't think it matters. 10-2 OSU is in playoff. No questions asked. 11-1 Indiana is most likely in.

LSU/ Vandy - definitely want LSU but this game worries me. Both improves our SOS and hurts Texas.
SC/Mizzou - does it matter more that you beat a top 20 team or lost to a top 20 team for playoff. Seems like they are rewarding wins more than hurting losses. Slight Mizzou fan but I think SC rolls them by 30.

Ark/Mizzou - I believe if all these teams end 10-2, then this game could mean difference in facing LSU (Ark win) and Bama (Mizzou) win. I would rather play LSU.

Tenn/Vandy - if Tenn loses to UGA we are rooting for Vandy. Keep eliminating teams

Bama/Auburn - keep eliminating teams

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Yeah, you wa t Tennessee over Georgia to Eliminate competition in case we win out a d lose the seccg, and also would rather face Tennessee than bama

We control our own destiny by winning out. If we win our last 2 SEC games against Auburn and Texas, we will play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn has lost 5 consecutive Power 4 home games to Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Also, Hugh Freeze is 1-7 in Power 4 home games, and his only Power 4 home win was a 27-13 win over Mississippi State on 10/28/2023. Auburn's only Power 4 win of the season is a 24-10 road win at Kentucky on 10/26. For these reasons, we will probably be a double-digit road favorite at Auburn.

Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites, and it comes before the Lone Star State rivalry showdown with Texas at Kyle Field. If win beat Auburn, we will return to Kyle Field with a 9-2 (6-1 SEC) record and be playing Texas for both an SEC Championship Game appearance and a playoff appearance.

Calling Minnesota over Penn St next week. Probably not enough to keep PSU out of playoff though

Thinkits best for Ga to lose to Tenn. Need Ga out of contesion. Dont think a 2 loss Tenn eliminates them from playoffs and we need one of these to fall behind us. Tenn win has no impact on us making Conf championship game.....we gotta win out basically to ensure we make it

UK @ tu in 2 weeks will be interesting and probably is overlooked.

The Kentucky Wildcats are not having a good year. However, they have a better win, on the road, against Ole Miss than tu has with Vandy.

Beyond that, UK lost to Georgia, who whooped tu, by one point 13-12. Lost to Tennessee at Tennesse by 10, 28-18. So they are certainly capable of playing and even beating a better team on the road.

Only issue is the losses. They don't fit in with how they've played well against good teams. But it does seem they play up to the better opponent and way down to lesser opponents.

Quote:

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Still, the road game at Auburn is a trap game because we will probably be double-digit road favorites,

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Unless auburn suffers major injures against ULM, No chance.

Definitely a trap game. As bad as their record is, Auburn has been within 1 score or even lead in 4th quarter in all of them

Just win.

I never thought I'd say this, but I actually like A&M's matchup against Georgia over any other theoretical CCG opponents. Was really hoping they'd beat Ole Miss.

Everybody else has offenses capable of scoring a ton of points really fast.

If every SEC favorite wins their remaining conference games over the next 3 weeks and Arkansas beats Missouri in Columbia, 9-3 (6-2 SEC) LSU would play the winner of the Texas vs Texas A&M game in the SEC Championship Game. If every SEC favorite wins their remaining conference games and Missouri beats Arkansas, Alabama would play the winner the Texas vs Texas A&M game in the SEC Championship Game. Barring any other upset in the remaining conference games, the Arkansas vs Missouri game will determine if LSU or Alabama plays the winner of the Texas vs Texas A&M game.

Wild Scenario:

If every SEC Favorite wins the next 3 weeks + Arkansas beats Missouri

Then LSU is in the SEC Championship Game vs the winner of Texas and A&M. pic.twitter.com/s0qByUYlRN

— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) November 13, 2024

1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)

2. Alabama (6 - 2)
With LSU, above Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
Above LSU based on head-to-head record (1-0).

3. LSU (6 - 2)
With Alabama, above Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
Below Alabama based on head-to-head record (0-1).

4. Georgia (6 - 2)
With Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas, below Alabama and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
With Tennessee and Texas, above Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Above Tennessee and Texas based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (2-0).

5. Texas (6 - 2)
With Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, below Alabama and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
With Georgia and Tennessee, above Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
With Tennessee, below Georgia based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (0-1).
Above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (6-1).

6. Tennessee (6 - 2)
With Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas, below Alabama and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438).
With Georgia and Texas, above Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
With Texas, below Georgia based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (0-1).
Below Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (5-2).

7. Ole Miss (6 - 2)
With Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas, below Alabama and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).
Below Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=secfb