bearcat said:

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Ummm…. Go rewatch our games. Our defense has been bad at tackling all year

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Not anywhere close to how they were against SC.

Wolfpac 08 said:

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Now do us

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Just a guess but with ND, LSU, Missouri and USCe on our schedule I can only assume our overall opponents record is better.

Horn has a comically easy SEC schedule. That doesn't mean they aren't a good team.

Wolfpac 08 said:

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Now do us

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Overall:
48-35
Teams we beat:
34-31
Remaining opponents before Texas:
5-13

Per ESPN FPI | SP+ as of today both team's top 8 FPI | SP+ opponents this season

A&M (18.25 | 19.63)
Top 4 (9.00 | 10.00)
Bottom 4 (27.50 | 29.25)
Remain (16.00 | 14.00)
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tu #2 | #2
ND #4 | #7
SC #14 | #16
LSU #16 | #15
MIZZOU #24 | #17
FL #27 | #39
ARK #29 | #35
AUB #30 | #26

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tu (28.50 | 29.25)
Top 4 (17.50 | 20.50)
Bottom 4 (38.75 | 46.75)
Remain (30.33 | 31.67)
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GA #6 | #6
TAMU #15 | #13
OK #25 | #28
FL #27 | #39
ARK #29 | #35
VANDY #38 | #61
MICH #41 | #40
KY #47 | #47

Hungry Ojos said:

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Nonsense. Our secondary will have no answer for their passing game. Our offense won't be a factor. We're gonna get embarrassed at home.

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They might. Or we may play a really close game and possibly even win.

If we tackle decently, which we had most of the season before SC, we can beat them. It will be a tough game regardless. But some of you sure do go overboard on stuff. Both negatively and in some cases, positively. There is no in the middle with many of you.

I'd put our odds of winning around 30%. I don't think we get embarrassed. Maybe they slowly pull away in the 4th and win by 10-14. But not embarrassed.

As for our secondary? If we tackle well, the coverage itself has been solid this year. Of course they have a good chance to find success on us, but I don't think the secondary is as bad as you are making it out to be.

This is also called recency bias. We hadn't given up more than 24 all year. SC looks closer to the anomaly than the norm. But you never know. Maybe they did expose us. Maybe texas drops 44 as well. But gun to my head, I'd expect to look closer to the Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, etc., level of defense than the SC one, especially at home. I'd expect to give up closer to 24, 27, or maybe 31 than 44. The question is, can we keep up even if we give up 24-31? I don't know.

Geminiv said:

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I'd be surprised if it the game was within 21 points

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Then it should be an easy bet.

I don't know if we will win, but I will be SHOCKED if we lose by 21+.

bearcat said:

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Ummm…. Go rewatch our games. Our defense has been bad at tackling all year

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NOTHING like that game. It was in an entirely different level of anything we have seen this season. I wouldn't say we have been bad by any means. Just like most teams, we missed some tackles. I remember 3-5 against LSU. It was 25 against SC.

Records of Power 4 opponents Texas beat:
@Michigan 5-5 (3-4 Big 10)
Mississippi State 2-8 (0-6 SEC)
Oklahoma 5-5 (1-5 SEC)
@Vanderbilt 6-4 (3-3 SEC)
Florida 4-5 (2-4 SEC)

Records of future Power 4 opponents Texas excluding Texas A&M
Arkansas 5-4 (3-3 SEC)
Kentucky 3-6 (1-6 SEC)

Records of Power 4 opponents we beat
@Florida 4-5 (2-4 SEC)
Arkansas 5-4 (3-3 SEC)
Missouri 7-2 (3-2 SEC)
@Mississippi State 2-8 (0-6 SEC)
LSU 6-3 (3-2 SEC)

Records of future Power 4 opponent excluding Texas
Auburn 3-6 (1-5 SEC)

We have 3 common opponents with Texas: Florida, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. While we played both Florida and Mississippi State on the road, Texas got to play both teams at home. We played Arkansas in a neutral site at Jerry World, and Texas plays Arkansas on the road.

Texas' best win is a 27-24 road win at Vanderbilt on 10/26. We have beaten two SEC teams with 6+ wins and 3+ SEC wins by double digits each: 41-10 home over Missouri and 38-23 home win over LSU.

When we host Texas, it would heavily play in our favor because Texas will be playing an SEC road game at night for the first time. The night crowd noise helped us to dominate LSU in the second half on 10/26 and helped South Carolina to dominate us in the second half one week later on 11/2.

OMB100GAS said:

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Bowling green has a good chance of being conference champion, only conference loss QB went down 2nd half


Our first conference road game was Florida when they had their starting RB and QB (plus Marcel's first start)
Their first conference road game was Vandy over a month later on Oct 26

Michigan, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and UL Monroe all have offenses that are in the bottom 20

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I remember going into the Vandy game, the offenses they had played ranked an average of 99th.

Every single one of you who thinks the Longhorns will beat us by 21 points or more are the same people who were scared of Luther Burden, the Arky QB, DJ Lagway and Nussmeyeyer or whatever and now you've made a boogeyman out of the entire tu team. A team that struggled mightily against Vandy.

Good job. Losers.

Geminiv said:

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I'd be surprised if it the game was within 21 points

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We're going to beat them 96-0.

95!!!

Quote:

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When we host Texas, it would heavily play in our favor because Texas will be playing an SEC road game at night for the first time. The night crowd noise helped us to dominate LSU in the second half on 10/26 and helped South Carolina to dominate us in the second half one week later on 11/2.

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Yep

Good luck to tu with that

It's the first time all year they are going to face anything like the hornets nest that Kyle will be on 11/30

Ian Neff said:

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Every single one of you who thinks the Longhorns will beat us by 21 points or more are the same people who were scared of Luther Burden, the Arky QB, DJ Lagway and Nussmeyeyer or whatever and now you've made a boogeyman out of the entire tu team. A team that struggled mightily against Vandy.

Good job. Losers.

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Ian Neff speaking the gospel!

beerad12man said:

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Hungry Ojos said:

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Nonsense. Our secondary will have no answer for their passing game. Our offense won't be a factor. We're gonna get embarrassed at home.

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They might. Or we may play a really close game and possibly even win.

If we tackle decently, which we had most of the season before SC, we can beat them. It will be a tough game regardless. But some of you sure do go overboard on stuff. Both negatively and in some cases, positively. There is no in the middle with many of you.

I'd put our odds of winning around 30%. I don't think we get embarrassed. Maybe they slowly pull away in the 4th and win by 10-14. But not embarrassed.

As for our secondary? If we tackle well, the coverage itself has been solid this year. Of course they have a good chance to find success on us, but I don't think the secondary is as bad as you are making it out to be.

This is also called recency bias. We hadn't given up more than 24 all year. SC looks closer to the anomaly than the norm. But you never know. Maybe they did expose us. Maybe texas drops 44 as well. But gun to my head, I'd expect to look closer to the Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, etc., level of defense than the SC one, especially at home. I'd expect to give up closer to 24, 27, or maybe 31 than 44. The question is, can we keep up even if we give up 24-31? I don't know.

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Your post is much too reasonable for this site.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Nonsense. Our secondary will have no answer for their passing game. Our offense won't be a factor. We're gonna get embarrassed at home.

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Sadly, yes.

Ian Neff said:

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95!!!

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That is way too few points.

yeah it was around 90 or higher for sure, just terrible offenses. Arkansas is an outlier in that data set so by the time they play us their opponents average offensive rank will be 82 LOL