First off I'd be happy regardless in this scenario bc it would mean a win vs. Texas. But...

Scenario:

We win out, Texas wins out but loses to us.

Georgia and Tennessee both win out except one loses to the other.

LSU wins out

We'd have a group at 10-2 with A&M vs. either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC Championship game

If we were to lose the SEC Championship game, does that drop us from the top 12 with 3 losses while another SEC team at 10-2 who didn't play the extra game gets in.

I'd prefer to win the Conference title, but it would be very selection committee like to pull a move like that.

So…what is conference record for the 10-2 group…since that is mostly what orders the selection for CCG…

greg.w.h said:

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So…what is conference record for the 10-2 group…since that is mostly what orders the selection for CCG…

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Obviously would be us, LSU, and either Georgia or Tennessee with 1 conference loss....but im not talking tie breakers to go to the title game.

In this scenario the final SEC standings would be something like this

A&M 7-1
Georgia 7-1
LSU 7-1
Texas 6-2
Tennessee 6-2

The SEC gets at least 3 and probably 4 teams in. Assuming A&M loses to Georgia you could get Georgia and Tennessee in above A&M. After that A&M has head to head over the next two teams and better wins than any of them save Georgia. There's no way you take a 10-2 Texas over 10-3 A&M and no way you take 10-2 LSU over 10-3 A&M.

AggieDub04 said:

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In this scenario the final SEC standings would be something like this

A&M 7-1
Georgia 7-1
LSU 7-1
Texas 6-2
Tennessee 6-2

The SEC gets at least 3 and probably 4 teams in. Assuming A&M loses to Georgia you could get Georgia and Tennessee in above A&M. After that A&M has head to head over the next two teams and better wins than any of them save Georgia. There's no way you take a 10-2 Texas over 10-3 A&M and no way you take 10-2 LSU over 10-3 A&M.

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Tie breakers only apply to ccg. Nothing else is considered by the committee.

This is obviously getting ahead of ourselves but we would benefit from the following scenarios. Also in the scenario above it would help a ton if we had a loss in the SEC title game it wasn't a blowout.

ND winning out
South Carolina winning out sneaking into T25
LSU winning out
Horn winning out minus a loss to us
Mizzou winning out with a possible loss to SCAR

Which is ironic because that has us rooting for the three teams I hate most in all of CFB.

In this scenario do you put us ahead PSU who will likely finish with a single loss and zero wins against a top 25 program.

AggieDub04 said:

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In this scenario the final SEC standings would be something like this

A&M 7-1
Georgia 7-1
LSU 7-1
Texas 6-2
Tennessee 6-2

The SEC gets at least 3 and probably 4 teams in. Assuming A&M loses to Georgia you could get Georgia and Tennessee in above A&M. After that A&M has head to head over the next two teams and better wins than any of them save Georgia. There's no way you take a 10-2 Texas over 10-3 A&M and no way you take 10-2 LSU over 10-3 A&M.

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Logically yes, it would defy history what preference Texas has been given because of their name would be my concern.

Let's have fun with this...

What if Ole Miss beats GA this weekend, and GA beats UT? Then what?

And I thought, that conference championships did not count against you for playoff spots, or to your point, why would you risk the chance of missing out?

JROD9398 said:

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Let's have fun with this...

What if Ole Miss beats GA this weekend, and GA beats UT? Then what?

And I thought, that conference championships did not count against you for playoff spots, or to your point, why would you risk the chance of missing out?

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Exactly what I'll be rooting for...and then for Bama to beat LSU this weekend but lose the Iron Bowl lol

That's what I was getting at, are conference title games going to become not worth playing. If your comfortably in the playoff but it risks dropping along with the risk of injuries playing another game the cons are going to start outweighing the pros some years. To your point, my opinion is the 12 should be set prior to CCG's but allowing adjustment of order depending on CCG outcomes possibly.

Gyles Marrett said:

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JROD9398 said:

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Let's have fun with this...

What if Ole Miss beats GA this weekend, and GA beats UT? Then what?

And I thought, that conference championships did not count against you for playoff spots, or to your point, why would you risk the chance of missing out?

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Exactly what I'll be rooting for...and then for Bama to beat LSU this weekend but lose the Iron Bowl lol

That's what I was getting at, are conference title games going to become not worth playing. If your comfortably in the playoff but it risks dropping along with the risk of injuries playing another game the cons are going to start outweighing the pros some years. To your point, my opinion is the 12 should be set prior to CCG's but allowing adjustment of order depending on CCG outcomes possibly.

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The issue comes if there is a Power 4 conference championship game participant that is outside of the predetermined 12 that wins their championship and earns the first round bye.

If we get to the championship game, we're making the playoff, win or lose.

They're not going to take an A&M team that, in your scenario, has the same or better overall record as the non-participants, and had the better in-conference record and then drop us below them for losing. It won't happen, specifically because if it did, teams in the SEC and Big10, where each conference will generally get 4 in most years, teams would realize they could lay a game late in the year and get in by being the 3rd or 4th ranked team in the conference and not having to play another game.

I agree, the SEC and BIG10 Conf Champ losers should be auto bids.

Now, I could see a seeding thing happen. For example

1 GA 12-1
2 TN 10-2
3 A&M 10-3
4 LSU 10-2
5 tu 10-2

I could see the above, only because we did not play TN during the year. However, I doubt it. It should be GA 1 and A&M 2

I think it would be A&M vs LSU if above scenario played out. I don't think we get 4 in though. I think BIG for sure gets 4. I think bYU or Miami get in as a non conference champion. ND is in. Boise is in: that's 9.

If LSU loses championship game, Texas is in and LSU is out. If Ags lose, I think they still get bid over Texas.

Bottom line is root for Miami and BYU to win conference. If they do I think SEC gets 4 in

That's the scenario I want except not the Bama Iron Bowl loss

Bama beats LSU
Ole Miss beats Georgia
Georgia beats UT
Ags win out

Ags 7-1
Georgia 6-2
tu 6-2
UT 6-2
Bama 6-2
LSU 6-2
Ole Miss 6-2

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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If we get to the championship game, we're making the playoff, win or lose.

They're not going to take an A&M team that, in your scenario, has the same or better overall record as the non-participants, and had the better in-conference record and then drop us below them for losing. It won't happen, specifically because if it did, teams in the SEC and Big10, where each conference will generally get 4 in most years, teams would realize they could lay a game late in the year and get in by being the 3rd or 4th ranked team in the conference and not having to play another game.

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They left out a one loss UGA team that was number one all year but a three loss A&M is a lock? I don't think so.

rootube said:

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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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If we get to the championship game, we're making the playoff, win or lose.

They're not going to take an A&M team that, in your scenario, has the same or better overall record as the non-participants, and had the better in-conference record and then drop us below them for losing. It won't happen, specifically because if it did, teams in the SEC and Big10, where each conference will generally get 4 in most years, teams would realize they could lay a game late in the year and get in by being the 3rd or 4th ranked team in the conference and not having to play another game.

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They left out a one loss UGA team that was number one all year but a three loss A&M is a lock? I don't think so.

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The SEC will get as many or more teams in this playoff as the entire size of the last playoff.

They left UGA out because they couldn't take 2 SEC schools and they couldn't put UGA in OVER the Bama team that just beat them (and Bama getting in forced tu in as well since they had won earlier in the year).

But 12 > 4 is really the only part of this argument that matters in this particular comparison.

Only if they want Texas in really bad. A 10-3 Aggie or LSU team would not get in over
11-2 SMU that lost in CCG
12-1 BYU that lost in CCG
121 Miami that lost in CCG
11-2 ISU that lost in CCG
11-1 Indiana
11-1 Penn St
10-2 or 11-2 Ohio St

Now if they want Texas in at 10-2 over any of those teams then I think Aggies get in and LSU wouldn't. The argument of not counting it against a CCG loser goes away because I just listed 5 possible losers and they all won't get in.

bearcat said:

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Only if they want Texas in really bad. A 10-3 Aggie or LSU team would not get in over
11-2 SMU that lost in CCG
12-1 BYU that lost in CCG
121 Miami that lost in CCG
11-2 ISU that lost in CCG
11-1 Indiana
11-1 Penn St
10-2 or 11-2 Ohio St

Now if they want Texas in at 10-2 over any of those teams then I think Aggies get in and LSU wouldn't. The argument of not counting it against a CCG loser goes away because I just listed 5 possible losers and they all won't get in.

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My understanding was that it wouldn't be held against you as it pertained to other teams within your conference.

So if UGA/A&M played in the SEC Championship they are the first two teams from the SEC getting in. If they want to put 4 teams in from the SEC due to conference strength, none of them can "jump" the loser of the Conference championship. They don't want to incentivize teams to tank to miss out on the Conference Championship in order to not make the playoff.

Will be interesting to see how it shakes out in a few weeks.

bearcat said:

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Only if they want Texas in really bad. A 10-3 Aggie or LSU team would not get in over
11-2 SMU that lost in CCG
12-1 BYU that lost in CCG
121 Miami that lost in CCG
11-2 ISU that lost in CCG
11-1 Indiana
11-1 Penn St
10-2 or 11-2 Ohio St

Now if they want Texas in at 10-2 over any of those teams then I think Aggies get in and LSU wouldn't. The argument of not counting it against a CCG loser goes away because I just listed 5 possible losers and they all won't get in.

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A&M would go over SMU and ISU easily in those situations. Potentially over BYU as well. People said the big xii would get one if isu and byu were undefeated when they played, now isu has a loss.

listening to TA radio yesterday, Olin and Nuno sure seem to think what I proposed here very likely would happen. a 10-3 A&M being left out and a 10-2 Texas team we beat getting put in.

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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rootube said:

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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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If we get to the championship game, we're making the playoff, win or lose.

They're not going to take an A&M team that, in your scenario, has the same or better overall record as the non-participants, and had the better in-conference record and then drop us below them for losing. It won't happen, specifically because if it did, teams in the SEC and Big10, where each conference will generally get 4 in most years, teams would realize they could lay a game late in the year and get in by being the 3rd or 4th ranked team in the conference and not having to play another game.

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They left out a one loss UGA team that was number one all year but a three loss A&M is a lock? I don't think so.

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The SEC will get as many or more teams in this playoff as the entire size of the last playoff.

They left UGA out because they couldn't take 2 SEC schools and they couldn't put UGA in OVER the Bama team that just beat them (and Bama getting in forced tu in as well since they had won earlier in the year).

But 12 > 4 is really the only part of this argument that matters in this particular comparison.

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Why couldn't they take two SEC teams last year. If you can explain that I think you will see how a 3 loss SEC champ game loser could get left out. Take a look at the rest of PSU's schedule. Is a one loss B10 team with zero T25 wins going to be left out? No.

Let's say we beat Horn and lose in the SEC champ game. Would a two loss horn team who just lost to us get left out over a three loss A&M. I'd like to say we would get in over them but I have my doubts.

The committee will find a way to keep us out.

That's an interesting scenario! If A&M makes it to the SEC Championship and ends up with 3 losses after playing in the title game, the committee might actually weigh that game as a positive, even if it's a loss. Playing for the conference title, especially in the SEC, would show strength compared to a 10-2 team that didn't make it that far. But, with the committee, it's hard to predict, they have pulled moves like prioritizing a team with fewer losses that didn't play the extra game.

One thing to consider is how the CCG plays out...a blowout may be enough to drop a team from the playoff, but a close game would likely keep them as #2 in the conference

So think what you are saying thru. Is it possible for UGA to be ranked #2 and not go to the SEC championship game? Absolutely. I think LSU could get in over them by virtue of beating Bama. Now tell me where each team is projected to be ranked going to CCG.

UGA 2
Ags. 8 or 9 at best
LSU 9/10
Tenn 10/11
Texas 12/13

You don't see the 9 seed dropping at all if they lost CCG?

Now keep that thought in mind. What if SMU finishes unbeaten until CCG along with Miami. Where do you think SMU is ranked? Are you going to punish them for losing to #4 team in your rankings more than #9 losing to #8?
What if ISU finishes out unbeaten and plays #6 team in your rankings. ISU is borderline top 12. Are you moving BYU out then?

It is a flawed system. Why did you have BYU ranked so high in the 1st place if you were to move them out of top 12 because they lost to #12.

We need Notre Dame to drop a game.

They're out if they lose one of their remaining games. This would increases the chances of the SEC getting more teams in (and reduce our chance of getting left out at 10-3).

bearcat said:

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Only if they want Texas in really bad. A 10-3 Aggie or LSU team would not get in over
11-2 SMU that lost in CCG
12-1 BYU that lost in CCG
121 Miami that lost in CCG
11-2 ISU that lost in CCG
11-1 Indiana
11-1 Penn St
10-2 or 11-2 Ohio St

Now if they want Texas in at 10-2 over any of those teams then I think Aggies get in and LSU wouldn't. The argument of not counting it against a CCG loser goes away because I just listed 5 possible losers and they all won't get in.

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10-3 A&M or LSU would get in over SMU, BYU, ISU, and Indiana in your listing. More importantly they get in over 10-2 Texas and 10-2 Tennessee.

bearcat said:

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So think what you are saying thru. Is it possible for UGA to be ranked #2 and not go to the SEC championship game? Absolutely. I think LSU could get in over them by virtue of beating Bama. Now tell me where each team is projected to be ranked going to CCG.

UGA 2
Ags. 8 or 9 at best
LSU 9/10
Tenn 10/11
Texas 12/13

You don't see the 9 seed dropping at all if they lost CCG?

Now keep that thought in mind. What if SMU finishes unbeaten until CCG along with Miami. Where do you think SMU is ranked? Are you going to punish them for losing to #4 team in your rankings more than #9 losing to #8?
What if ISU finishes out unbeaten and plays #6 team in your rankings. ISU is borderline top 12. Are you moving BYU out then?

It is a flawed system. Why did you have BYU ranked so high in the 1st place if you were to move them out of top 12 because they lost to #12.

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I said only as it pertains to teams from the same conference. In my opinion, the two SEC Championship game participants will not be left out in favor of another team from the SEC.

So in your scenario - LSU would be a Top 4 seed by virtue of winning the SEC. UGA would be the 5 seed because they aren't a conference champion and A&M would slot in somewhere in the 7-12 range. If the CFP elects to take one more team from the SEC it would be between the other teams that didn't make the SEC Championship.

Now if the CFP says that only two teams from the SEC are getting in I could see the loser of the SEC Championship being left out in favor of UGA who didn't make it.

Absolutely expect teams to occasionally? often? be penalized for losing a CCG. And frankly, if a team performs particularly badly, maybe they should be penalized. There is a bit of a standing assumption that 10-2 teams within a conference are very comparable. That might not really be the case with uneven scheduling. Lastly, sooner or later, the #5 seed could arguably have an "easier road" than the 2 or 3 seed by virtue of playing a weak G5 team as the #12 and a relatively weak #4 seed (say.....propped up B12 champion with 3 losses).

Long story short, lots of shenanigans will occur eventually under this current format. Get used to it.