Some Key Notes / Observations:

• Note: All stats below (except individual stats) are FBS-ONLY; disregarding the McNeeses and Murray States and other cupcakes
• Somehow, we are the best Offense and the Best Defense they've faced this season
• Conversely, they are also the best Offense and Best Defense we will have faced
• "Alright, we'll call it a draw" /gif
• Moss has rushed 76 times, and has only had 2 negative rushing yards (hat tip to the OL)
• Mizzou has ALOT of graduate students leading their stats
• Their best LB (on paper) is only 5'10; we have to be able to take advantage of that right?
• Their kicker is 3/4 from 50+ but 0/3 from 40-50 yard range.
• If we get into the Redzone against an FBS team, we're scoring! (a FG probably)
• Florida's defense is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad...

Sounds like a stressful game.

solishu said:

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Sounds like a stressful game.

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Definitely

Defensively better. Offensively better. That is on paper ONLY. They haven't played a good team, yet.

Our offensive numbers are off due to embarassment of ND game.

Either way, I believe we have the more elite team and this is going to show up in the game stats.

So you're saying there's a chance?

Exactly what i expected

Wonder how we compare with explosive plays. That would be cool to see.

I know we tend to give up one or two per game and all I keep hearing is they have 1st round WR and a QB that likes to take shots downfield. Our DB's will have to be on point (solid coverage and for God's sake, no 3rd and long interference/holding calls negating a possession). What will help is getting consistent pressure.

KatyAggie2000 said:

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Wonder how we compare with explosive plays. That would be cool to see.

I know we tend to give up one or two per game and all I keep hearing is they have 1st round WR and a QB that likes to take shots downfield. Our DB's will have to be on point (solid coverage and for God's sake, no 3rd and long interference/holding calls negating a possession). What will help is getting consistent pressure.

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On offense, Missouri is 84th in 10+ yard plays (44); Texas A&M is 78th (46) .. (FBS games only)

On defense, Missouri is 5th in 10+ yard plays allowed (28); Texas A&M is 87th (53) .. (FBS games only)

Thanks for posting, Spreadsheet. This is the part of the game that concerns me. We'll match up well with our front and physicality but if we don't get pressure their WR core will run wild and will put a huge strain on the secondary.

Hey Spreadsheet - good to see your work as usual. I'm pretty sure I saw the first spreadsheets many moons ago...

Question: Does your formula take into account the strength of schedule? Mizzou is highly rated, but I would argue its because its all cupcake games... they have not played any teams with deeply rated recruits... and thus, very skewed in my opinion.

Watching the film, we look much much stronger than they do... physically we don't seem like the same league. Mizzou, in my opinion, is weaker than Florida.

Lotta gold, but TFL is the most important stat, as a negative play takes strain off the defense

Glad this is at 11am. Member guest final round starts at 8, be done by 10:30. In the bar watching the game without a care in the world.

Yet Vegas has the Ags as a 5 point favorite; I don't see it.

So Mizzou has "Advantage" in 25 line item categories and the Aggies in 10 and yet the game appears to be a "pick 'em"?

czar_iv said:

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Yet Vegas has the Ags as a 5 point favorite; I don't see it.

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Has the line moved that much. Yesterday it was between -1.5 and -2.5

czar_iv said:

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Yet Vegas has the Ags as a 5 point favorite; I don't see it.

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Where are you seeing this?

I see -1 to -1.5 for A&M (O/U at 48.5). If you're getting -5 somewhere, bet Mizzou to cover (I hate typing that).

aglaes said:

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So Mizzou has "Advantage" in 25 line item categories and the Aggies in 10 and yet the game appears to be a "pick 'em"?

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The formula compares how they have performed against their competitors and how we have performed against ours. It takes into account key stats only like: points per yard / points per play, turnover margin, homefield advantage, % +/- versus the opponent, team talent level, 3rd down success, first downs, RZ success, etc.

Eventually, I want to work in a # of snaps / experience KPI, but haven't found a reliable source to take that from yet.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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aglaes said:

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So Mizzou has "Advantage" in 25 line item categories and the Aggies in 10 and yet the game appears to be a "pick 'em"?

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The formula compares how they have performed against their competitors and how we have performed against ours. It takes into account key stats only like: points per yard / points per play, turnover margin, homefield advantage, % +/- versus the opponent, team talent level, 3rd down success, first downs, RZ success, etc.

Eventually, I want to work in a # of snaps / experience KPI, but haven't found a reliable source to take that from yet.

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I'm sure you have it, but have you ever shared how the spreadsheet projections compare to actuals - ie just in picking the winner correctly and how far off it is on points scored for each team.

So let it be written, so let it be done!

solishu said:

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Sounds like a stressful game.

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Arkansas 2.0

I wonder what the stats look like with throwing out ND since Weigman played the entire game?

The best defense that Missouri has seen was Vanderbilt, who held them to 20 points in regulation, sacked Brady Cook three times and had 8 tackles for loss. Vanderbilt lost to Georgia State who has lost to Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.

Vanderbilt's QB, Diago Pavia, known as mostly a rushing QB, passed for 178 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another 84 yards. Not very good defense by Missouri against a rushing QB. Missouri's defense only managed 1 sack and 6 TFLs.

Brady Cook passed for 23/37 (62%), 228 yards and two touchdowns. Missouri's primary rusher, Nate Noel, rushed 24 times for 199 yards. When I looked at Vanderbilt's defense, they are very undersized. That explains why they're better at rushing the passer than at defending the run.

I believe we'll do very well defensively against Missouri and that Marcel should be productive since they couldn't defend against a running QB, including in the passing game. I also believe our depth on defense will allow us to go four quarters against Missouri and their defense won't.

Two things bother me. Like Bowling Green, they've had two weeks to get ready for us. Second, we need all the talking heads except Tim Tebow to pick against us like they did last week! I'm afraid that Chris Doering may be wavering.

WDGillespie said:

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The best defense that Missouri has seen was Vanderbilt, who held them to 20 points in regulation, sacked Brady Cook three times and had 8 tackles for loss. Vanderbilt lost to Georgia State who has lost to Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.

Vanderbilt's QB, Diago Pavia, known as mostly a rushing QB, passed for 178 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another 84 yards. Not very good defense by Missouri against a rushing QB. Missouri's defense only managed 1 sack and 6 TFLs.

Brady Cook passed for 23/37 (62%), 228 yards and two touchdowns. Missouri's primary rusher, Nate Noel, rushed 24 times for 199 yards. When I looked at Vanderbilt's defense, they are very undersized. That explains why they're better at rushing the passer than at defending the run.

I believe we'll do very well defensively against Missouri and that Marcel should be productive since they couldn't defend against a running QB, including in the passing game. I also believe our depth on defense will allow us to go four quarters against Missouri and their defense won't.

Two things bother me. Like Bowling Green, they've had two weeks to get ready for us. Second, we need all the talking heads except Tim Tebow to pick against us like they did last week! I'm afraid that Chris Doering may be wavering.

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1. Do you think maybe they didn't show up for this game? Simply played down?

2. I'm also worried about the 2 weeks of preparation

I'm also worried about their QB. Dude is completing 67% of his passes when you combine last year and this year's stats.

We need Reed to have a productive game. He needs to look like he did against Florida and possibly then some

Missouri Tigers
Points: 20
Passing yards: 220
Rushing yards: 120
Total yards: 340
Turnovers: 1

Texas A&M Aggies
Points: 24
Passing yards: 200
Rushing yards: 170
Total yards: 370
Turnovers: 0

solishu said:

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Sounds like a stressful game.

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Yes, it does, but it also sounds like Missouri is doomed.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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Somehow, we are the best Offense and the Best Defense they've faced this season

Conversely, they are also the best Offense and Best Defense we will have faced

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1. Should be obvious we are best offense and defense they have faced
2. Their Offense is slightly better than Arky, and their defense is certainly worse than ND

We will be fine, just avoid turnovers and penalties

We're going to have to contain Wease and Burden. Those dudes are legit WR and can hurt you with YAC.

What are your formulas records over the last few years?

AgLA06 said:

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So let it be written, so let it be done!

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"I'm sent here by the chosen ooooooonne!"

WDGillespie said:

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The best defense that Missouri has seen was Vanderbilt, who held them to 20 points in regulation, sacked Brady Cook three times and had 8 tackles for loss. Vanderbilt lost to Georgia State who has lost to Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.

Vanderbilt's QB, Diago Pavia, known as mostly a rushing QB, passed for 178 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another 84 yards. Not very good defense by Missouri against a rushing QB. Missouri's defense only managed 1 sack and 6 TFLs.

Brady Cook passed for 23/37 (62%), 228 yards and two touchdowns. Missouri's primary rusher, Nate Noel, rushed 24 times for 199 yards. When I looked at Vanderbilt's defense, they are very undersized. That explains why they're better at rushing the passer than at defending the run.

I believe we'll do very well defensively against Missouri and that Marcel should be productive since they couldn't defend against a running QB, including in the passing game. I also believe our depth on defense will allow us to go four quarters against Missouri and their defense won't.

Two things bother me. Like Bowling Green, they've had two weeks to get ready for us. Second, we need all the talking heads except Tim Tebow to pick against us like they did last week! I'm afraid that Chris Doering may be wavering.

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Well, but we lost to ND, who lost to NIU, who lost to Buffalo, who lost to Mizzou 38 to 0.

LuoJi said:

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What are your formulas records over the last few years?

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W/L Only:
All Time - 68-18 (77%)
Since Joining the SEC - 38-8 (83%)
In SEC Conference games - 25-8 (76%)

In games predicted <=3 pts differential = 13-6 (68%)

I haven't tracked Vegas Lines over the years; but I don't really want to track anything against the spread, because I don't want this to be a betting tool.

TecRecAg said:

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Glad this is at 11am. Member guest final round starts at 8, be done by 10:30. In the bar watching the game without a care in the world.

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I wonder what temp will be at 11 am, maybe a factor. It didn't hurt ND.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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czar_iv said:

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Yet Vegas has the Ags as a 5 point favorite; I don't see it.

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Where are you seeing this?

I see -1 to -1.5 for A&M (O/U at 48.5). If you're getting -5 somewhere, bet Mizzou to cover (I hate typing that).

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I saw that spread on vegasinsider.com but maybe this site isn't reliable. Honestly I don't see how A&M is a favorite even by a point.