For those that do not know what FEI is

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FEI Ratings (FEI), Offense Ratings (OFEI), Defense Ratings (DFEI), and Special Teams Ratings (SFEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS), the number of losses a team one standard deviation above average would expect to have against the schedule (GLS), and the number of losses an average team would expect to have against the schedule (ALS). Strength of record ratings (EWD, GWD, AWD) are the difference between a team's schedule strength ratings and its actual losses.

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https://www.bcftoys.com/2024-fei/

The below ranking are updated through week 8

Texas A&M - 14 (-4)

Past opponents

ND - 6 (-4)
McNeese State - N/A (FCS)
Florida - 25 (+1)
BG - 79 (-13)
Arkansas - 41 (-12)
Missouri - 37 (+6)
State - 85 (+8)
LSU - 12 (+5)

Future oppenents

SC - 20 (-1)
New Mexico State - 128 (NC)
Auburn - 42 (-6)
tu - 4 (NC)

Projects to 9-3 although obviously this is far from being an accurate predictor of wins and losses . The opportunity is there to do better but we have to get less predictable on offense and stop giving up explosive plays due to mental errors.

Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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Quoting for incorrectness.

All I was saying is the statistical team ranks quoted projects to 9-3 at this point . Was not predicting it although I think it is 2nd most likely outcome with 8-4 being slightly more likely

I feel like our chances vs LSU and Mizzou are about 50/50 so figure we split those. Maybe 40% at beating tu and 50/50 with Scar. The rest are over 50% imo

jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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7-5 is the floor. I think 10-2 is the best but not extremely likely.

We will be 8-4 or 9-3. Hopefully 9-3, that would give us good momentum.

jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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And right on cue, we open as a 2.5 point favorite vs Mizzou next week.

Sounds about right.

jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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At best? If we can beat Missouri I think we are realistically 8-9 wins. The 9th comes from beating either LSU or S. Carolina.

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jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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Muy said:

At best? If we can beat Missouri I think we are realistically 8-9 wins. The 9th comes from beating either LSU or S. Carolina.

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If we beat Mizzou, 9 wins becomes the expectation, with a shot a 10 wins.

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+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)

jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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Muy said:

At best? If we can beat Missouri I think we are realistically 8-9 wins. The 9th comes from beating either LSU or S. Carolina.

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AustinAg2K said:

If we beat Mizzou, 9 wins becomes the expectation, with a shot a 10 wins.

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Agreed. Unless something major changes, we'll probably be favored in every game until Thanksgiving.

Updated through week 5

Probable cupcake win: New Mexico State

Likely SEC wins: @Mississippi State and @Auburn

Tossup SEC games: Missouri, LSU, and @South Carolina

Likely SEC loss: Texas

With a win over Arkansas and 3 tossup games remaining against Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina, we have a floor of 7-5 (4-4 SEC) and a ceiling of 10-2 (7-1 SEC). Hopefully, we can win 2 of those 3 tossup games to finish 9-3 (6-2 SEC) and have an opportunity for a 10th win in our bowl game.

I think FEI's might be very helpful for those who dont really understand the game. they can look at numbers and go "aha! so that explains it"

That's kind of how I see but I have tu as a toss up because it's a rivalry game and the first with tu as an SEC member.

I think I'll start adding the movement for each team when i update this next week.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Probable cupcake win: New Mexico State

Likely SEC wins: @Mississippi State and @Auburn

Tossup SEC games: Missouri, LSU, and @South Carolina

Likely SEC loss: Texas

With a win over Arkansas and 3 tossup games remaining against Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina, we have a floor of 7-5 (4-4 SEC) and a ceiling of 10-2 (7-1 SEC). Hopefully, we can win 2 of those 3 tossup games to finish 9-3 (6-2 SEC) and have an opportunity for a 10th win in our bowl game.

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I'd put Auburn in the tossup category but the rest seems right.

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Probable cupcake win: New Mexico State

Likely SEC wins: @Mississippi State and @Auburn

Tossup SEC games: Missouri, LSU, and @South Carolina

Likely SEC loss: Texas

With a win over Arkansas and 3 tossup games remaining against Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina, we have a floor of 7-5 (4-4 SEC) and a ceiling of 10-2 (7-1 SEC). Hopefully, we can win 2 of those 3 tossup games to finish 9-3 (6-2 SEC) and have an opportunity for a 10th win in our bowl game.

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rootube said:

I'd put Auburn in the tossup category but the rest seems right.

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I agree but Auburn's offense is the worst we will see in the SEC. I think that will bode well for us.

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Probable cupcake win: New Mexico State

Likely SEC wins: @Mississippi State and @Auburn

Tossup SEC games: Missouri, LSU, and @South Carolina

Likely SEC loss: Texas

With a win over Arkansas and 3 tossup games remaining against Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina, we have a floor of 7-5 (4-4 SEC) and a ceiling of 10-2 (7-1 SEC). Hopefully, we can win 2 of those 3 tossup games to finish 9-3 (6-2 SEC) and have an opportunity for a 10th win in our bowl game.

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rootube said:

I'd put Auburn in the tossup category but the rest seems right.

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Auburn has lost 5 consecutive games to Power 4 opponents, including 4 at home. Dating back to an embarrassing 31-10 home loss to New Mexico State on 11/18/23, Auburn has lost 6 of their 7 games to FBS opponents, including 5 of 6 at home. That's why I put Auburn in the likely SEC win category.

vander54 said:

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That's kind of how I see but I have tu as a toss up because it's a rivalry game and the first with tu as an SEC member.

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I also think it plays to our advantage to catch them later in the year after they've been worn down by their first SEC (even if cream puff) schedule.

We could potentially have Conner back by then as well.

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Cupcake win: New Mexico State

Likely SEC wins: @Mississippi State

Tossup SEC games: @Auburn, Missouri, LSU, and @South Carolina

Likely SEC loss: Texas

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rootube said:

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This is how I have it. I also think we'll be favored in every toss up game. I don't expect us to win all 4, but I think 3 is a possibility and a realistic hope at the moment.

It's fairly possible we could be 9-2 heading into the tu game having only lost to top 10 teams. That's about all I could have hoped for before the season started.

If that happens, anyone who has questioned coaching on this board should be called out.

We aren't 7-5 until we lose four more. We aren't 11-1 until we don't lose one more…and win eight of course…

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jsc8116 said:

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Think this is a 7-5 squad at best. Nmst for 5th win and combo of wins 6 and 7 from Miss St, Auburn, S. Carolina

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vander54 said:

7-5 is the floor. I think 10-2 is the best but not extremely likely.

We will be 8-4 or 9-3. Hopefully 9-3, that would give us good momentum.

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This. Our defense is playing well enough to win us some close ones but juuuust inconsistent enough on big plays to lose one we should win. If we can get to 10 wins that shows how good this coaching staff is. 9 wins and there is hope for the future.

Personally I'll be very disappointed with 8 wins. We don't have "the" quarterback you need to win it all and our receivers lack explosion, but we're talented enough that a good coach can find a way.

Thanks for the link. Good stuff.

Is there data that evaluates how this system does in predicting winners /losers . I ask because I see some anomalies wrt several game outcomes to date this yr for example KSt-BYU and Kentucky-South Carolina . Turnovers obviously would be a big factor but I dunno how those are accounted for .

Something else that sticks out at a glance , Ole Miss at 6 after playing a bunch of teams with no pulse and then losing to the one team they played with a pulse.

Several factors go into these numbers. I dont know them all but i do know we still have a relatively low number of data points. Ole Miss could be 6 because of this or the data shows that the loss to Kentucky was an anomaly. Time will tell

Also Kentucky is ranked 19 by this system so it's not like it was a crazy loss.

A win this weekend would throw the FEI out of wack. Can't wait to see it.

Yeah, I don't take any issue with Kentucky at 19, it's Ole Miss at 6 that has me scratching my head . Seems to me they should be much closer. Kentucky has played a much more difficult slate so far and they beat them head to head and totally dominated TOP which greatly impacted Ole Miss by reducing their possession opportunities. Ole Miss only ran 56 plays . I'd say most teams that limit Ole Miss to 56 plays has a good chance to beat them.

halfastros81 said:

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Yeah, I don't take any issue with Kentucky at 19, it's Ole Miss at 6 that has me scratching my head . Seems to me they should be much closer. Kentucky has played a much more difficult slate so far and they beat them head to head and totally dominated TOP which greatly impacted Ole Miss by reducing their possession opportunities. Ole Miss only ran 56 plays . I'd say most teams that limit Ole Miss to 56 plays has a good chance to beat them.

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Sip at 5 should also have you scratching your head. They have only played cupcakes, a bad Michigan team and struggled mightily against the only worst SEC team this past Saturday yet are still at 5. And at #2 if you ask the "experts".

The FEI methodology is mostly but not neatly summarized on the website. To the extent it is proprietary and treated as a trade secret it's just an opinion poll of one. But it looks pretty well described.

I'm not a fan of most of the proprietary ratings for the reasons I mentioned above. But gamblers tend to fall in and out of love with them…and up to six of them helped keep a committee away from the BCS standings though note my opinion comment…always seem to have a thumb on the scale for the usual favorites…especially early:

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halfastros81 said:

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Yeah, I don't take any issue with Kentucky at 19, it's Ole Miss at 6 that has me scratching my head . Seems to me they should be much closer. Kentucky has played a much more difficult slate so far and they beat them head to head and totally dominated TOP which greatly impacted Ole Miss by reducing their possession opportunities. Ole Miss only ran 56 plays . I'd say most teams that limit Ole Miss to 56 plays has a good chance to beat them.

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Bill Superman said:

Sip at 5 should also have you scratching your head. They have only played cupcakes, a bad Michigan team and struggled mightily against the only worst SEC team this past Saturday yet are still at 5. And at #2 if you ask the "experts".

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Michigan is not a bad team. Are they the same team that won a natty? No, but they are far from bad. Not many teams have played a powerhouse so far. UGA and Bama are a couple that come to mind.

Bill Superman said:

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Sip at 5 should also have you scratching your head. They have only played cupcakes, a bad Michigan team and struggled mightily against the only worst SEC team this past Saturday yet are still at 5. And at #2 if you ask the "experts".

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Your hate for them is clouding your objectivity. Just looking at the rankings only 2 teams have beaten a current top #10 team (texas and Bama). Other than Bama and maybe tenn, I don't see any other team with a better resume currently.

1. Bama - #1 and rightfully so
2. OSU #3 - Who have they beaten? 3 cupcakes and an unranked MSU. They should not be above texas
3. Tenn #4- They beat NC state and OU. I guess that is a better resume but both teams have shown that they are not at Mich caliber IMO
4. Ga #5 - Lost to #1 so can't rank them higher
5. Oregon #6 - They have beaten no one near the caliber of current #10 Mich. They almost lost to BSU and Idaho
6. PSU #7 - They have a worse schedule and their best win is #24. They almost lost to BGU
7. Miami #8 - Who have they beaten? Fla? Barely beat a 2-3 Va Tech on a very controversial reversed call.
8. Mizz #9 - No need to talk about their resume
9. Mich #10 - They beat them.
10 Everyone else has 1 loss other than ISU/BYU/Indiana and none of them have a win like Mich. Keep in mind texas was beating mich by 25 in the 3rd quarter and essentially ran the clock out. They could have won the game by 40 points.

mich isn't bad but they are one dimensional on offense. Texas is definitely a top 10 team at this point but we'll see if they can avoid their usual speed bump vs OU. Venables is usually pretty good at coming up with a plan to slow good offenses down especially with an extra week to prep. Can OU score enough on them is probably the bigger question?

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Bill Superman said:

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Sip at 5 should also have you scratching your head. They have only played cupcakes, a bad Michigan team and struggled mightily against the only worst SEC team this past Saturday yet are still at 5. And at #2 if you ask the "experts".

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Medaggie said:

Your hate for them is clouding your objectivity. Just looking at the rankings only 2 teams have beaten a current top #10 team (texas and Bama). Other than Bama and maybe tenn, I don't see any other team with a better resume currently.

1. Bama - #1 and rightfully so
2. OSU #3 - Who have they beaten? 3 cupcakes and an unranked MSU. They should not be above texas
3. Tenn #4- They beat NC state and OU. I guess that is a better resume but both teams have shown that they are not at Mich caliber IMO
4. Ga #5 - Lost to #1 so can't rank them higher
5. Oregon #6 - They have beaten no one near the caliber of current #10 Mich. They almost lost to BSU and Idaho
6. PSU #7 - They have a worse schedule and their best win is #24. They almost lost to BGU
7. Miami #8 - Who have they beaten? Fla? Barely beat a 2-3 Va Tech on a very controversial reversed call.
8. Mizz #9 - No need to talk about their resume
9. Mich #10 - They beat them.
10 Everyone else has 1 loss other than ISU/BYU/Indiana and none of them have a win like Mich. Keep in mind texas was beating mich by 25 in the 3rd quarter and essentially ran the clock out. They could have won the game by 40 points.

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Michigan should not be ranked in the top 10 and everyone that knows ball can see that.

I read thru it. Read the interview you linked as well.

halfastros81 said:

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mich isn't bad but they are one dimensional on offense. Texas is definitely a top 10 team at this point but we'll see if they can avoid their usual speed bump vs OU. Venables is usually pretty good at coming up with a plan to slow good offenses down especially with an extra week to prep. Can OU score enough on them is probably the bigger question?

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But start making a list of the teams that have big wins.

Bama over UGA
UGA over Clemson
ND over us???
UK over Ole Miss
Vols over OU?
Horn over Michigan

Who else. I'm sure I'm missing some but there aren't that many.