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Pickell has us losing. Here's why I don't care.

6,937 Views | 49 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by halfastros81
HTXag25
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JD Pickell from On3 has us losing 24-21 this weekend against Florida.

He reasons that he sees Florida being able to get to Weigman and create pressure. And he doesn't believe in our receivers. Also reasoned that Floridas backs are against the wall with Napier on the hot seat and says that people aren't giving them enough credit. Also, home game in the swamp he reasons to be another advantage.

Crazy to me that if Weigman actually played like himself against Notre Dame, i.e. didn't throw 2 bad interceptions, and we lose that game by less or actually win the game, The entire perception of us nationally drastically changes.

Don't get me wrong, we have our holes and we have some things that need to be fixed and improved upon, but people in the media and the normal every day cfb fan view us in such a polarizing way. It's either we're a sleeping giant on our way to win the SEC, or we're the bottom of the barrel program. The obvious and realistic truth is we're nowhere close to either of those things. But we're a lot closer to that SEC title than most people think.

I haven't been an Aggie Football fan long compared to everyone else. (My first game I remember watching was Nebraska in 2010, shout-out Randy Bullock). But it's been the same s**t pretty consistently. We are either put on this pedestal or get treated like we're Rutgers.

Obviously I will not be changing the minds of all of CFB or any of the popular talking heads, but I want to share with y'all how I will be viewing the rest of the games this season. It's called statistics and reasoning. I'm sick of ridiculous and extreme narratives. No more comparing histories, using emotion and frustration to make our predictions, and for the love of God stop comparing ourselves to that school in Austin.

Our matchup this Saturday is between our guys and Florida. Florida lost their season opener to Miami 41-17. They threw for 122 yards and 2 interceptions between Mertz and Lagway. They totaled 139 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. They had 1 sack and 1 interception on defense. Cam Ward threw for 385 yards and 3 TDs against them. They really struggled in their zone concepts and coverage as this was where many of Miami's big plays came from. Miami was able to get to Mertz quick and often and tallied 3 sacks. Miami led long and methodical drives and succeeded in both the run and pass game.

I won't discuss Floridas game against Samford because these type of games really aren't good for much in terms of forecasting a teams success. Every SEC team should easily decimate their yearly FCS opponent. It was 14-0 at halftime of this game which should be somewhat concerning for a team of this caliber against an FCS opponent but again can't take much from these kinds of games.

I like our boys in this game. I think our passing game opens up more than everyone expects it to, and I think we can exploit their weaker secondary. Jabre is back, Moose is finding his groove, Cyrus has been dependable and Jahdae and Noah have proven they can be reliable and make plays. Leveon and our o line will carry their momentum and swagger into this game and provide some needed yards on the ground in a hostile environment. And our defense should be able to keep Florida within reach the entire game. Offense just needs to prove it to them, to us and to the rest of the country.

Yes, a humid 2:30 game in the Swamp is not what I would call a comfortable playing environment but this game is gonna be dictated by our players and their performance. Not some ugly stadium with 90,000 fans wearing colors meant for a 10 year olds Nike elite socks.

It's time to start looking at games for what they are. How can your team follow up the previous weekend? How does your team matchup to theirs? Does our scheme have potential to exploit theirs? Will our QB finally step up and show us his true potential and not waver under the shining lights? These are the questions I want to start asking and worrying about. Nothing else. Who cares NIU beat ND. Get over it. Who cares tu beat a depleted and over ranked Michigan team. Move on. We have 10 games left and as far as I'm concerned it is completely plausible to finish this season with a respectable record like 9-3 or even 10-2.

We're a great school in a great town. We have all the needed facilities and resources for a winning program. Whether y'all believe it or not, we've shown glimpses of that potential. We have such great talent and the pieces are in place to take that next step.

The fightin Texas Aggies win 31-17 this weekend, and all the great Aggies traveling to Gainesville get to leave that stadium with a big smile on their face and a bowl full of hope.

Drink the kool-aid. This s**t tastes good.

BTHO Everyone


HTownMan87
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anyone selling the cliff notes?
HTXag25
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I apologize for the length. TLDR: We need to change the way we look at Aggie Football. Start looking at the season by a game by game basis. And let go of the past and other story lines surrounding college football. This is a great football team that's capable of a lot. It's not as bleak as everyone makes it. Also, Power is back.
Artimus Gordon
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Well this is a huge game and gives us a good indication of which way the program is going. It is bigger than the ND game.
JPK89
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***** Pickell and TLDR rookie posts
Eliminatus
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Artimus Gordon said:

Well this is a huge game and gives us a good indication of which way the program is going. It is bigger than the ND game.
It's only big BECAUSE of the ND game. Aside from the pumpers, many people (from both Aggies and casual observers) consider this a make or break game. If we show up and win, awesome. If we show up and lose but at least compete, we can continue the narration of "getting back on track". No one will believe it of course but maybe the pitchforks stay in the barn. If we embarrass ourselves again.....the wheels are going to come off and it's going to be bad.
Kozmozag
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Its matters more because its a SEC game. Win this one and there is still hope of a great season. Lose it and the dream is over for the year.
rgag12
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My wife wishes my "I don't cares" translated to the equivalent effort of a 500 word post
rhutton125
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$3 Sack of Groceries
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rootube
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You say if Weigman plays like himself but he really hasn't played enough games to know what like himself is. Maybe the ND game was him playing like himself. Guess we get to find out soon.
Nice Guy Eddie
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HTXag25 said:

JD Pickell from On3 has us losing 24-21 this weekend against Florida.

He reasons that he sees Florida being able to get to Weigman and create pressure. And he doesn't believe in our receivers. Also reasoned that Floridas backs are against the wall with Napier on the hot seat and says that people aren't giving them enough credit. Also, home game in the swamp he reasons to be another advantage.

Crazy to me that if Weigman actually played like himself against Notre Dame, i.e. didn't throw 2 bad interceptions, and we lose that game by less or actually win the game, The entire perception of us nationally drastically changes.

Don't get me wrong, we have our holes and we have some things that need to be fixed and improved upon, but people in the media and the normal every day cfb fan view us in such a polarizing way. It's either we're a sleeping giant on our way to win the SEC, or we're the bottom of the barrel program. The obvious and realistic truth is we're nowhere close to either of those things. But we're a lot closer to that SEC title than most people think.

I haven't been an Aggie Football fan long compared to everyone else. (My first game I remember watching was Nebraska in 2010, shout-out Randy Bullock). But it's been the same s**t pretty consistently. We are either put on this pedestal or get treated like we're Rutgers.

Obviously I will not be changing the minds of all of CFB or any of the popular talking heads, but I want to share with y'all how I will be viewing the rest of the games this season. It's called statistics and reasoning. I'm sick of ridiculous and extreme narratives. No more comparing histories, using emotion and frustration to make our predictions, and for the love of God stop comparing ourselves to that school in Austin.

Our matchup this Saturday is between our guys and Florida. Florida lost their season opener to Miami 41-17. They threw for 122 yards and 2 interceptions between Mertz and Lagway. They totaled 139 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. They had 1 sack and 1 interception on defense. Cam Ward threw for 385 yards and 3 TDs against them. They really struggled in their zone concepts and coverage as this was where many of Miami's big plays came from. Miami was able to get to Mertz quick and often and tallied 3 sacks. Miami led long and methodical drives and succeeded in both the run and pass game.

I won't discuss Floridas game against Samford because these type of games really aren't good for much in terms of forecasting a teams success. Every SEC team should easily decimate their yearly FCS opponent. It was 14-0 at halftime of this game which should be somewhat concerning for a team of this caliber against an FCS opponent but again can't take much from these kinds of games.

I like our boys in this game. I think our passing game opens up more than everyone expects it to, and I think we can exploit their weaker secondary. Jabre is back, Moose is finding his groove, Cyrus has been dependable and Jahdae and Noah have proven they can be reliable and make plays. Leveon and our o line will carry their momentum and swagger into this game and provide some needed yards on the ground in a hostile environment. And our defense should be able to keep Florida within reach the entire game. Offense just needs to prove it to them, to us and to the rest of the country.

Yes, a humid 2:30 game in the Swamp is not what I would call a comfortable playing environment but this game is gonna be dictated by our players and their performance. Not some ugly stadium with 90,000 fans wearing colors meant for a 10 year olds Nike elite socks.

It's time to start looking at games for what they are. How can your team follow up the previous weekend? How does your team matchup to theirs? Does our scheme have potential to exploit theirs? Will our QB finally step up and show us his true potential and not waver under the shining lights? These are the questions I want to start asking and worrying about. Nothing else. Who cares NIU beat ND. Get over it. Who cares tu beat a depleted and over ranked Michigan team. Move on. We have 10 games left and as far as I'm concerned it is completely plausible to finish this season with a respectable record like 9-3 or even 10-2.

We're a great school in a great town. We have all the needed facilities and resources for a winning program. Whether y'all believe it or not, we've shown glimpses of that potential. We have such great talent and the pieces are in place to take that next step.

The fightin Texas Aggies win 31-17 this weekend, and all the great Aggies traveling to Gainesville get to leave that stadium with a big smile on their face and a bowl full of hope.

Drink the kool-aid. This s**t tastes good.

BTHO Everyone






He's a sophomoric Mouth breather. Who cares what that poser thinks?
MisterJones
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TLDR

BTHO Florida
texag101
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HTXag25 said:

Drink the kool-aid. This s**t tastes good.

Thanks Sunshine. /s
infinity ag
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HTownMan87 said:

anyone selling the cliff notes?


Let me put this magnum opus into ChatGPT to summarize
infinity ag
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infinity ag said:

HTownMan87 said:

anyone selling the cliff notes?


Let me put this magnum opus into ChatGPT to summarize


JD Pickell predicts a 24-21 Florida win against Texas A&M, citing Florida's ability to pressure Weigman and doubts about A&M's receivers. He argues Florida's desperation due to Coach Napier's hot seat and home advantage in the Swamp. Reflecting on the season, the writer notes that perceptions of A&M vary drastically, from being seen as a rising SEC contender to a struggling program. They believe the truth lies between these extremes, with the team showing glimpses of potential for SEC success. Despite Florida's weaknesses in their opener against Miami, the writer is optimistic about A&M's ability to exploit Florida's secondary and control the game. They predict a 31-17 victory for Texas A&M, dismissing the influence of the environment and focusing on the team's capabilities. The writer stresses looking at matchups and performance rather than narratives and history, expressing confidence that A&M can achieve a strong season record.
LMCane
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Uh, Aggie football is much closer to the bottom of the league than to the top of the league

everyone understands this.

Georgia
Texas
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Alabama
Missouri

you really see a team that just lost at home in Elko's sold out premiere is at the top of the league.

the same Notre Dame team manhandled by NORTHERN ILLINOIS in South Bend a week later?!?
TyperWoods
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F On3 the entire lot of them


I agree we do need to watch Aggie football game by game.

Game 1:was depressing
Game 2 was very concerning revealing the pathetic passing game in game 1 wasn't an aberration.
Iraq2xVeteran
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Dating back to a 43-20 loss to Georgia on 10/28/23, Florida has lost 6 consecutive games against Power 4 teams, including 3 consecutive home games against Power 4 teams. From the beginning of 2018 through the first 9 games of 2020, Dan Mullen started 24-6 against Power 4 teams, but since the infamous shoe throw in a 37-34 home loss to LSU on 12/12/20, Florida is 10-24 (2-9 at the end of Dan Mullen's tenure, 1-0 under interim head coach Greg Knox, and 7-15 under Billy Napier) in their last 34 games against Power 4 teams.

From the beginning of 2018 through the first 9 games of 2021, Jimbo Fisher started 25-12 against Power 4 teams, but since our 29-19 road loss at Ole Miss on 11/13/21, we have gone 7-15 (7-12 at the end Jimbo Fisher's tenure, 0-2 under interim head coach Elijah Robinson, and 0-1 under Mike Elko) in our last 22 games against Power 4 teams, including 10 consecutive road losses. Also, we have lost 3 consecutive games against Power 4 teams, dating back to our 42-30 loss at LSU on 11/25/23.

Both Texas A&M and Florida lost home openers to nonconference Power 4 opponents by 10+ points each, and both teams are desperate to start 1-0 in SEC play to snap lengthy losing streaks against Power 4 teams. This is a must win road game to snap a 10-game road losing streak and a 3-game losing streak to Power 4 opponents with a win at Florida. That would give us our first road win since a 35-14 win at Missouri on 10/16/21, 1064 days or 152 weeks later. Otherwise, a loss at Florida would extend our road losing streak to 11 games and our road winning drought to at least 1099 days or 157 weeks before our next true road game at Mississippi State on 10/19. Also, our losing streak to Power 4 opponents would extend to 4 games.

I am predicting a close game with the Aggies wining 31-24 to snap multiple losing streaks and win Mike Elko's SEC debut.
NowhereMan
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I think Pickell was referring to the Pickle Ball match between retirees from FL and A&M at "The Villages" a stones throw from Gainsville.

SilverTaps86
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Chatgpt summary in two sentences:

JD Pickell forecasts a 24-21 loss for the Aggies against Florida, highlighting concerns about quarterback Weigman and the receiving corps, while acknowledging Florida's pressure due to their coach's job security. Despite the team's flaws, he remains optimistic, believing the Aggies can exploit Florida's weaknesses and achieve a 31-17 victory.
Second2None
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OP should sell a newsletter. Worked well for a previous guy.
2thFixinAg
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quite the long post OP.
this is a shorter answer,

Just about everyone here agrees with you and thinks that we should win the game.

However, a large % (me included) believes that the team will underperform.

The offense was so inept against ND they're going to have to win a game on the road to change our pessimism.
hunter2012
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Medaggie
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TLDR. But we have not won a road game for close to 3 years and some of those teams were awful.

Until we win one, nothing is guaranteed. I can't figure out why we can't win on the road. We have the players.
Iraq2xVeteran
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Medaggie said:

TLDR. But we have not won a road game for close to 3 years and some of those teams were awful.

Until we win one, nothing is guaranteed. I can't figure out why we can't win on the road. We have the players.
I agree with you. We are road favorites, but it won't be an easy road game. We have lost 10 consecutive true road games, dating back to a 29-19 loss at Ole Miss on 11/13/21

11/13/21: 29-19 loss at 10-3 (6-2 SEC) Ole Miss
11/27/21: 27-24 loss at 6-7 (3-5 SEC) LSU
10/1/22: 42-24 loss at 9-4 (4-4 SEC) Mississippi State
10/8/22: 24-20 loss at 11-2 (6-2 SEC) Alabama
10/22/22: 30-24 loss at 8-5 (4-4 SEC) South Carolina
11/12/22: 13-10 loss at 5-7 (2-6 SEC) Auburn
9/9/23: 48-33 loss at 7-6 (3-5 ACC) Miami
10/14/23: 20-13 loss at 9-4 (4-4 SEC) Tennessee
11/4/23: 38-35 loss at 11-2 (6-2 SEC) Ole Miss
11/25/23: 42-30 loss at 10-3 (6-2 SEC) LSU

In summary, 6 of those 10 road losses were decided by 6 points or fewer, but Jimbo Fisher just couldn't win those close road games. Fisher's desire to travel to road games on Thursday nights, meaning players and staff left campus shortly after practice, and sometimes didn't get to hotels until late in the evening or early mornings. Then they'd wake up on Friday mornings and have meetings and just wait around for the game. Our 10th consecutive road loss was under interim head coach Elijah Robinson. I am glad Mike Elko is having his team leave on Friday.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38913228/jimbo-fisher-texas-firing-downfall

A loss at Florida would remind me of our 13-10 loss at Auburn on 11/12/22. That 2022 road game at Auburn featured two teams with identical 3-6 overall records, 1-5 SEC records, and 5-game losing streaks. Because Auburn had fired then 2nd year head coach Bryan Harsin only 12 days earlier, I had expected a road win at Auburn. Instead, then 5th year Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher managed to lose to Cadillac Williams, who was only in his second game as an interim head coach. As a result, Auburn snapped their 5-game losing streak to improve to 4-6 (2-5 SEC) and handed us our 6th consecutive loss for our longest losing streak since 1972. Because we dropped to to 3-7 (1-6 SEC), we missed bowl eligibility for the first time since 2008 and secured last place in the SEC West for the first time ever. In addition, it was our 6th consecutive road loss. For these reasons, I think that was the most disappointing road loss in the Jimbo Fisher era.
NoahAg
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Wow that dude is crazy.
No way we score 21.
JustisWalkert
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uh...words....uh....
offenseguru
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This one comes down to who can stop the run/who can establish and maintain the run game. And turnovers.
duff el pud
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Cliff notes...

Athanasius
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HTXag25 said:

we have our holes
They may take our lives, but they'll never take away our holes.
Nino Brown
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I don't think there will be any in between in this game.

We either come out, control the ball and the clock and shut down their offense minus one or two big plays....or

We make DJ look like a Heisman candidate.
duddleysdraw88
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It all comes down to #15.

The rest of the team is fully capable of winning 8 or more games this year. Even without Reuben.

How short of a leash does Elko have on CW?
Because 2 interceptions likely loses you this game too!


duddleysdraw88
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duff el pud said:

Cliff notes...




Greatness!
texAZtea
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You briefly mention you care about statistics then cherry pick values from one game with no statistical analysis at all.

I don't think you've even taken statistics yet.
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