Early season rankings have many voters factoring expected losses from remaining sos. If 2 teams have a similar start to their season and 1 has an easier remaining road, that team will usually be ranked higher with the expectation that they will finish with a better record.

60% of the time the favored team wins everytime.

think -2.5 is too low. ND is not a top 20 team this year.

Notre Dame is perennially overrated. Vegas (and the betting public) understands this and is setting lines accordingly.
This season the Irish inflation is worse than most. The more I look at this game (match ups, etc.), the more I like the Ags. I don't think the O-line will have any issues with the ND front and Elko knows how to plan to punish Riley Leonard.

I have the final score Ags 26 ND 18.

Note: score prediction is more a comment on what I project to be a middling 8-9 win ND team than any success I believe the Ags will have.

barnag said:

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33 said:

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cs69ag said:

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I heard yesterday our Ags are 39-2 in their last 41 non conf games at home

I have not gone back to check that out

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You have to strip out the cupcakes from this record.

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So take out App State too?

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App St and Clemson come to mind

Bill Superman said:

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mortal said:

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Bill Superman said:

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Why the Sam Hill is the #20 team favored -2.5 over the #7 team, and I don't want to hear anything about home field advantage with that big of a difference in ranking.

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Uh Bill, the "vegas oddsmakers" don't pay attention to the rankings. It's simply the money being even on both side. This game has a lot of folks betting on the Aggies.

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Then admittedly the rankings are wrong and therefore rendered useless.

Vegas is a better indicator of ranking and should be used as the consensus. The only other issue with that is Vegas uses their system based on how y'all dumbasses are going to throw away the little money you have which throws the spread off just a little.

Besides that, vegas oddsmakers should be the primary reference when it comes to the playoff committee ranking system, and not your typical political bs run by the AP.

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You are getting way to worked up on the oddsmakers especially if you are not betting on games. Simply, the odds set set to make the house money and when adjusted it's designed to steer money to the profitable side for Vegas. Here's what it is NOT 1) Prediction of the actual score 2) Used to assist in any various polls rankings. ESPECIALLY unstable when trying to analyze odds compared to a random preseason poll guesses

Rankings are dumb particularly pre season. The line reflects these are two evenly matched teams and the game is in College Station. Both teams have a tremendous amount of unknowns. You would think our coaching change combined with roster turnover would push ND a little higher but I guess this is an indictment on low confidence in ND.

barnag said:

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33 said:

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cs69ag said:

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I heard yesterday our Ags are 39-2 in their last 41 non conf games at home

I have not gone back to check that out

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You have to strip out the cupcakes from this record.

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So take out App State too?

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too soon

Craigy said:

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Bill Superman said:

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mortal said:

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Bill Superman said:

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Why the Sam Hill is the #20 team favored -2.5 over the #7 team, and I don't want to hear anything about home field advantage with that big of a difference in ranking.

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Uh Bill, the "vegas oddsmakers" don't pay attention to the rankings. It's simply the money being even on both side. This game has a lot of folks betting on the Aggies.

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Then admittedly the rankings are wrong and therefore rendered useless.

Vegas is a better indicator of ranking and should be used as the consensus. The only other issue with that is Vegas uses their system based on how y'all dumbasses are going to throw away the little money you have which throws the spread off just a little.

Besides that, vegas oddsmakers should be the primary reference when it comes to the playoff committee ranking system, and not your typical political bs run by the AP.

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You are getting way to worked up on the oddsmakers especially if you are not betting on games. Simply, the odds set set to make the house money and when adjusted it's designed to steer money to the profitable side for Vegas. Here's what it is NOT 1) Prediction of the actual score 2) Used to assist in any various polls rankings. ESPECIALLY unstable when trying to analyze odds compared to a random preseason poll guesses

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How many times can you be wrong in one post? 1. I'm not worked up. 2. I am betting. 3. Vegas odds are exactly a prediction of how betters think the score will end up. 4. My whole post is that it should be used since the polls are so far off.

This is exactly right. I actually worked as an oddsmaker before. One of the biggest misconceptions out there is that "Vegas" puts spreads at who they think will win and by how many. That's not how it works at all. The spread is based on how you can ensure even money coming in from both teams. That is the main goal. If the line is -2.5, that means there is more early money coming in on Texas A&M. Probably from the excitement of Elko, the deep pockets of betters, etc.

For example, when the spread moved from -1 to -2.5 when ND's left tackle got hurt, it wasn't because we would think the Aggies would then win by that much, just the perception of what the public would think.

Honestly, if you want an indicator of who people think will actually win, check the spreads leading up to kickoff. Smart money doesn't usually come in until gameday. My guess is that this spread would shrink .5 to 1 point before kickoff because I would bet that the ND betters would wait closer to gameday. Just see how I see it playing out.

Only on TexAgs can we see PO'd because we're not ranked or ranked high enough .. much less favored to be beat a top 10 team.

And now the OP who's PO'd we're ranked at all and favored to beat a top 10 team.

I hope we beat the ever living HELL outta ND!!! And tbh, with our D and their OL, I believe we have a decent chance.

CoachB19 said:

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This is exactly right. I actually worked as an oddsmaker before. One of the biggest misconceptions out there is that "Vegas" puts spreads at who they think will win and by how many. That's not how it works at all. The spread is based on how you can ensure even money coming in from both teams. That is the main goal. If the line is -2.5, that means there is more early money coming in on Texas A&M. Probably from the excitement of Elko, the deep pockets of betters, etc.

For example, when the spread moved from -1 to -2.5 when ND's left tackle got hurt, it wasn't because we would think the Aggies would then win by that much, just the perception of what the public would think.

Honestly, if you want an indicator of who people think will actually win, check the spreads leading up to kickoff. Smart money doesn't usually come in until gameday. My guess is that this spread would shrink .5 to 1 point before kickoff because I would bet that the ND betters would wait closer to gameday. Just see how I see it playing out.

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You're correct, but Craigy said vegas odds are "designed to steer money to the profitable side for Vegas" which is not how that works.

Bill Superman said:

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CoachB19 said:

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This is exactly right. I actually worked as an oddsmaker before. One of the biggest misconceptions out there is that "Vegas" puts spreads at who they think will win and by how many. That's not how it works at all. The spread is based on how you can ensure even money coming in from both teams. That is the main goal. If the line is -2.5, that means there is more early money coming in on Texas A&M. Probably from the excitement of Elko, the deep pockets of betters, etc.

For example, when the spread moved from -1 to -2.5 when ND's left tackle got hurt, it wasn't because we would think the Aggies would then win by that much, just the perception of what the public would think.

Honestly, if you want an indicator of who people think will actually win, check the spreads leading up to kickoff. Smart money doesn't usually come in until gameday. My guess is that this spread would shrink .5 to 1 point before kickoff because I would bet that the ND betters would wait closer to gameday. Just see how I see it playing out.

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You're correct, but Craigy said vegas odds are "designed to steer money to the profitable side for Vegas" which is not how that works.

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Drop your shovel, Bill…

Aggie Dad Sip said:

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Bill Superman said:

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CoachB19 said:

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This is exactly right. I actually worked as an oddsmaker before. One of the biggest misconceptions out there is that "Vegas" puts spreads at who they think will win and by how many. That's not how it works at all. The spread is based on how you can ensure even money coming in from both teams. That is the main goal. If the line is -2.5, that means there is more early money coming in on Texas A&M. Probably from the excitement of Elko, the deep pockets of betters, etc.

For example, when the spread moved from -1 to -2.5 when ND's left tackle got hurt, it wasn't because we would think the Aggies would then win by that much, just the perception of what the public would think.

Honestly, if you want an indicator of who people think will actually win, check the spreads leading up to kickoff. Smart money doesn't usually come in until gameday. My guess is that this spread would shrink .5 to 1 point before kickoff because I would bet that the ND betters would wait closer to gameday. Just see how I see it playing out.

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You're correct, but Craigy said vegas odds are "designed to steer money to the profitable side for Vegas" which is not how that works.

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Drop your shovel, Bill…

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It's a pitchfork, sip. Now get off my lawn.

Bill Superman said:

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Aggie Dad Sip said:

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Bill Superman said:

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CoachB19 said:

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This is exactly right. I actually worked as an oddsmaker before. One of the biggest misconceptions out there is that "Vegas" puts spreads at who they think will win and by how many. That's not how it works at all. The spread is based on how you can ensure even money coming in from both teams. That is the main goal. If the line is -2.5, that means there is more early money coming in on Texas A&M. Probably from the excitement of Elko, the deep pockets of betters, etc.

For example, when the spread moved from -1 to -2.5 when ND's left tackle got hurt, it wasn't because we would think the Aggies would then win by that much, just the perception of what the public would think.

Honestly, if you want an indicator of who people think will actually win, check the spreads leading up to kickoff. Smart money doesn't usually come in until gameday. My guess is that this spread would shrink .5 to 1 point before kickoff because I would bet that the ND betters would wait closer to gameday. Just see how I see it playing out.

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You're correct, but Craigy said vegas odds are "designed to steer money to the profitable side for Vegas" which is not how that works.

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Drop your shovel, Bill…

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It's a pitchfork, sip. Now get off my lawn.

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Drop your pitchfork, Bill.

Now it is a chess match.

Each team will have the same number of pieces on the board. And the quality of the pieces is surprisingly equal.

Now it is up to the Masters to make the best decisions for their moves..

I pick Elko ( with Collin Klein).

maroongoon95 said:

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We don't have home field advantage. In recent history we usually lose our home games to good teams and sometimes teams like App State

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I'd guess we're batting pretty high in night games at Kyle Field in the last 5 years

Mike Elkos Burner said:

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maroongoon95 said:

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We don't have home field advantage. In recent history we usually lose our home games to good teams and sometimes teams like App State

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I'd guess we're batting pretty high in night games at Kyle Field in the last 5 years

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Recent history is why we have a new coach.

AginKS said:

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Only on TexAgs can we see PO'd because we're not ranked or ranked high enough .. much less favored to be beat a top 10 team.

And now the OP who's PO'd we're ranked at all and favored to beat a top 10 team.

I hope we beat the ever living HELL outta ND!!! And tbh, with our D and their OL, I believe we have a decent chance.

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When was the last time we lived up to high expectations? I mich prefer e teeing the season without all of the hype. 20 is fair but I'd prefer to be unranked until we prove otherwise.

-3 now. Smart money's got smarter. Nothing wrong with a push.