VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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Michigan would be the favored team if y'all played that game next week, according to the numbers I used for the OP.

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According to actual casinos, Texas is favored by 2.5.

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These posters haven't bothered at looking at facts this entire thread, why start now? Easier for them to just assume OU and Michigan are going to stacked instead of doing actual research.

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I am sorry that I didn't include enough facts in the OP for the more simpleminded amongst us to be able to follow along. To lay it out clearly, the entire point of this post is to look at what SP+ (not Vegas, though it is one of the tools that does a decent job at competing with Vegas) says about each team based on its power rating and an assumed 3 point home advantage. Even despite that, you response completely misses the point that a spread within a field goal is nowhere close to a double digit blowout.

Now that I feel dirty for feeding the trolls this much, I will pivot to mentioning that the most interesting part of this data is that the top competitors for the #2 team in the SEC are all mid tier or lower teams from the last several years (#7, 8, and 11 from the data I posted recently on win totals since the last conference change). There is certainly an NIL piece to this, but it does lend credence to the people that say schedules were based on recent win/loss records, so teams that are a lot better now than they were just a few years ago may be significant benefactors in the opening year of the new SEC.

Ugly said:

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VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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Michigan would be the favored team if y'all played that game next week, according to the numbers I used for the OP.

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According to actual casinos, Texas is favored by 2.5.

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These posters haven't bothered at looking at facts this entire thread, why start now? Easier for them to just assume OU and Michigan are going to stacked instead of doing actual research.

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I am sorry that I didn't include enough facts in the OP for the more simpleminded amongst us to be able to follow along. To lay it out clearly, the entire point of this post is to look at what SP+ (not Vegas, though it is one of the tools that does a decent job at competing with Vegas) says about each team based on its power rating and an assumed 3 point home advantage. Even despite that, you response completely misses the point that a spread within a field goal is nowhere close to a double digit blowout.

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You did provide facts, thanks. I believe what is more important is returning roster experience and talent and if the head coach is coming back, which is why I believe both Texas and Texas A&M will have strong seasons. People are high on Michigan and OU for some strange reasons, football facts say a team that lost 18 starters and their head coach or a team that lost all their OL and will be playing predominantly first and second year guys are two teams that will struggle; especially against a team that returns their OL and QB has some talent at skill. When Texas leaves Ann Arbor after a 27-17 win, the board will act shocked.

Are you saying Miss State, Auburn, and South Carolina are all competing for top tire status in the SEC? Miss State and SC are going to be awful this fall, Auburn could be an 8 or 9 win squad. Did you mean to say Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee? If so, yes all three will be strong this fall. Of course Texas doesnt play any of those 3 and we only play one of them and its at home.

Notre Dame game is going to tell us a lot imo.

halfastros81 said:

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Notre Dame game is going to tell us a lot imo.

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Agreed. They lost a lot to the portal and to the NFL but gained a good QB and have a really solid group of talent. That said, we have the talent and experience to beat them by more than a TD. I think we pull away to a comfortable win and that propels us to a strong 2024.

Top tire, yes…as in big piles that catch on fire occasionally and burn for weeks if not years.

TXAG 05 said:

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Plus, swept off the field by Washington? The game was close and Texas almost won on the last play. Some of y'all really need to take off your maroon glasses.

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Sure they did. Sips got there due to B12 officiating. Won't happen in SEC.

Maybe you should take off your orange glasses.

Wearetheaggies said:

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TXAG 05 said:

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Plus, swept off the field by Washington? The game was close and Texas almost won on the last play. Some of y'all really need to take off your maroon glasses.

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Sure they did. Sips got there due to B12 officiating. Won't happen in SEC.

Maybe you should take off your orange glasses.

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I really really hope you are correct. I have my doubts though, years of bad officiating and biased officiating have me preparing for Texas to get all the calls this fall so they league can prop up playoff contenders. Their weak schedule doesn't help either. a 4-0 Texas team hosting a 2-2 Miss State is going to get all the calls. a 4 loss Florida team strolling into Austin isn't going to get any calls either.