Steve Sarkisian has never won 10 games before. His best record was a 9-4 finish in 2014 at USC. Texas will likely reach the Big 12 Championship Game and perhaps win that game for the first time since 2009, but they could also lose 2 regular season games. Even if Texas manages to make the College Football playoffs by becoming a 12-1 Big 12 champion, I think Georgia or Michigan will beat them in the CFP semifinal.
Alabama's dominance already started declining in 2021. Besides a 41-38 loss at Texas A&M on 10/9/2021, Alabama had 4 close wins over Florida (31-29 road win), LSU (20-14 home win), Arkansas (42-35 home win), and Auburn (24-22 4-overtime road win) by a combined margin of 17 points. Last year, Alabama's 2 losses to Tennessee (52-49 road loss) and LSU (32-31 overtime road loss) were by a combined margin of 4 points, but by the same token, their 3 wins over Texas (20-19 road win), Texas A&M (24-20 home win), and Ole Miss (30-24 road win) were by a combined margin of 11 points.
I won't be surprised if Alabama loses 2 or more conference games and does not win the SEC West. The SEC West race is wide open. On Good Bull Hunting, Robert Behrens wrote while there aren't really any guaranteed losses on the Aggies' schedule, there are also hardly any guaranteed wins.
The best and worst case scenario for the Texas A&M Aggies this season - Good Bull Hunting