It's that time again...

We had good success with college football last season and I had a blast with you guys. Things got REALLY fun during college basketball season when we hit an all-time hot streak at one point. Who wants to run it back??

Sorry for my summer absence. I'm admittedly terrible at handicapping baseball so I usually take the summer off to reset and start looking at college football.

We still have a couple weeks to go, so I'll post some of my week zero and week one plays and leans here on this thread. I'll also post any season win total bets I make or any other futures.

Right now the only three future bets I've made are:

Clemson over 10 wins (+105): I like this considering we push with 10 wins. Anything under 10 wins would be a disappointment for them.

Northern Illinois over 5.5 wins (-130): I think this team is a little undervalued. Tough season last year but they were plagued with injuries. They should get to 6.. maybe 7 wins.

LSU to win the National Championship (16/1 odds): The odds may have changed since I placed this bet about a month ago, but I think there's good value here. This is a talented Tigers team.

I'll be sure to post any additional bets I make in this thread.. so follow along and feel free to post your own plays or any questions you have for me.

Also- it's a long season and there's going to be some really good weeks and some really bad weeks. There's no denying that. It's gambling. But if you followed along last year, I'm sure you can vouch that if you play along you'll win more than you lose.

Good luck fellas! Let's kill it this year.

Week zero/week one plays so far:

New Mexico State -8 vs UMass: I'm generally not a fan of laying this number, but Jerry Kill has the Aggies in a good place and I think they'll be the much more motivated team in the season opener at home. This game might be close for three quarters but I think NMSU pulls away and wins by 10-14 points.

UConn +17 vs NCST: Disclaimer.. this number has moved quite a bit so keep an eye on it. I wouldn't play it at anything less than +17. I can't believe my first two bets of the year are on UConn and New Mexico State. Disgusting. But this is a good spot for the Huskies who are returning a lot of talent and coming off a bowl game appearance last year. Jim Mora has done a great job and I think the Huskies will be motivated to prove last year wasn't a fluke. They won't win this game, but I think they hang around at home.

Toledo +10 at Illinois: I actually won't be surprised at all to see the Rockets pull the upset here. They're clearly the best team in the MAC and they absolutely have enough talent to take the Illini down to the wire. Illinois lost Chase Brown- and he was a majority of their offense last year. Toledo should be motivated against a Big 10 team and I don't see the Illini pulling away.

Is there even enough interest to keep this thread going all year? Just want to make sure it's worth the time/effort. If there's not any interaction, I likely won't be posting much.

Interested

Yea interested! Thank you for all you do!

Personally I think there's lots of value in handicapping games with smaller schools like UConn and NMSt much of the time. The matchups aren't as closely analyzed as the bigger P5 matchups where the line setters know the majority of the money will be bet. And if that's where the value is, that's where the money needs to go.

Shoot, I'd still be interested and willing to contribute even there were zero eyes checking in. I'm on vacay in Florida and did my first pass on Week 0 and Week 1 games. Need to cross check some data and backup logic on Covers.

FYI for all those looking to get in on some background info and scouting, there's two very solid podcasts I listen to (down below). Great listen for conference previews and hear their logic after looking at Phil Steele's guide with team/production turnover outlooks. For the earlier picks in the year, these are incredibly helpful until trends and tendencies emerge in the Week 2/3 games.

Podcasts are:

1. Big Bets on Campus
2. Sports Gambling Podcast.

I'll touch back in soon. Going to want to lock up these numbers for NMSU and UCONN. They already off two pints each on list markets.

Current Week 0 Leans:

USC 1H -18
Purely a play on USC improving on defense through the portal and an inferior SJSU. Play will come down to Cordeiro for SJSU giving USC's D a fit. Probably a 28-7 half for me. Always have been a 1H spread guy for superior offense and talent gaps.

Ohio +2.5 or ML +115
Liked this one a lot more when the odds were higher. Ohio with their QB healthy is really good. SDSU lost a lot and also didn't have much to work with last year to start. Major issues all around. 1 unit play on the team going in the right direction over one in the other.

Vandy -17.0
Lots of chalk for Vandy, but Hawaii is Hawaii. Question is are they motivated to play after the fires. How has that disrupted the program? Clark Lea has Vandy heading in the right direction and was impressive to end the year. Lost a couple of guys, but expect to see a similar game they played Hawaii last year.

ND -20.5
Nothing official here yet and this is more of a lean/no play. I'm inclined to believe Hartman with a vastly improved ND in the 2nd half last season is no fluke. Not concerned about losing Tommy Rees to Bama. Navy has an excellent D but the Ireland game is a little weird to me. Straight degen play, but I'd save my money for Week 1.

NMSU -7.5
Still think UMass is UMass. Liked how NMSU would play at times with Jerry Kill last year. If things gel, I could see value with them like UConn of last year.

Im here every week. Wont necessarily add a whole lot (other than an occasional notable win / bad beat), but I'll consume it all.

I've always enjoyed this thread. Would love to see it continue.

By all means, keep this thread ALIVE !!!

I'm in for this season. Not a great season last year… finished 45-45-3.

Here's what I have for futures right now…

Mississippi State under 6.5 wins
Auburn over 6.5 wins
Ole Miss over 7.5 wins
Texas Tech over 7.5 wins
USC national champ
LSU national champ
Georgia national champ
Kentucky over 6.5 wins

what online betting service is the best to use?

LMCane said:

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what online betting service is the best to use?

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Spotted the cop.

First week lines. Who you got?

I posted this a few times in the 2022 thread but I'll share here as well. I try my best to post my picks here but sometimes life gets busy. If you want my bets in real time, download the Action Network app and follow me using this link: https://myaction.app/TaylorTravis15

You can see my open bets and get notified when I place new ones. You can also see my records in each sport as well. I've been tracking for about four years now.

NCAAF: 258-208-7
NCAAB: 778-628-21
NHL: 217-155-6
NBA: 279-165-4
NFL: 127-85-4
MLB: 113-97-4

Obviously, there's never guarantees. I'm extremely confident that if you tail me all season you'll profit, but cold streaks happen and it's gambling at the end of the day. That being said, I've done this for a long time and I have a system that I'm confident in.

Feel free to ask questions here if you're new to sports betting or just want my two cents (or anyone else's two cents) on a game or anything else. You can also send me a message on Twitter (@TaylorTravis15).

This thread was so much fun last year.. college football was good to us and college basketball was very good to us. I'm sure there's a few guys on here who can vouch. Let's run it back!!

Navy +20.5
UTEP +2/u53.5
Ohio +4

A couple more futures I've played. Conference champions.

Kansas State to win the Big 12 at +600: I think Texas is clearly the best team in the conference but it's either OU or KSU after that... at 6/1 I think this is good value.

Toledo to win the MAC at +155: They have the best roster in the MAC and a favorable schedule. If they stay healthy they should make the conference title game.

South Alabama to win the Sun Belt at +230: This is a very sneaky good team. They'll beat the Pokes in Stillwater in week three.

Usc TT over whatever number is posted

Love it!

Yessir, great thread last year! You made everyday a little more interesting - looking forward to 2023!

texsn95 said:

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Usc TT over whatever number is posted

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It's 48.5

I rarely bet totals during week one. Lots of new faces and schemes being worked in. Just my two cents.

Locked in as of this AM:

USC 1H -18.5
NMSU -6.5
LA Tech 1H -7
Vandy -17.5

Still going to sit on Ohio. Might pull the trigger on JVSU at +1. The BBoC folks seem high on them and will listen to their analysis tomorrow.

The big add was La Tech 1H -7. Shooting for the push and thought I'd get lower but was too late. La Tech was a strong 1H closing out the year. Bachmier from Boise comes in and should be a good fit in Cumbie'a scheme. FIU reports are that they're FIU again and aren't going to be a strong defensive unit.

I'm really curious what y'all think about the ND/navy game. The domers got a great QB transfer from wake who was fire last season before his injury. I'd like to take navy to cover the spread but I'm nervous about ND's QB play. Thoughts?

Definitely staying away from that one.

Navy is ranked 108 out of 133 on the power index, they went 4-8 overall last year and the only time they've ever beaten ND was back in 2016. They're returning 16 starters (9 defense, 7 offense); their strength is the defense but ND always has decent receivers. I don't see them keeping up with the Irish as they'll have a new transfer QB who can ball.

I've got the game total over 47.

Too Chains said:

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Locked in as of this AM:

USC 1H -18.5
NMSU -6.5
LA Tech 1H -7
Vandy -17.5

Still going to sit on Ohio. Might pull the trigger on JVSU at +1. The BBoC folks seem high on them and will listen to their analysis tomorrow.

The big add was La Tech 1H -7. Shooting for the push and thought I'd get lower but was too late. La Tech was a strong 1H closing out the year. Bachmier from Boise comes in and should be a good fit in Cumbie'a scheme. FIU reports are that they're FIU again and aren't going to be a strong defensive unit.

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You don't buy the 1/2 point (hook) down on key numbers?

I'm feeling good that I reluctantly took notre dame.

Doesn't look like navy is stopping the run or the pass. The Irish might be actually good this year from the look of their first drive

I took a 5 game 7point teaser with the ND over at 42, so I squeezed by that. Now I'm a bit worried UTEP is going to suck an egg against JSU and blow my +5 UTEP spread.

GarryowenAg said:

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I took a 5 game 7point teaser with the ND over at 42, so I squeezed by that. Now I'm a bit worried UTEP is going to suck an egg against JSU and blow my +5 UTEP spread.

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Baffling last couple of calls by Utep on that last drive, but you survived...

What do you think about the Ags over 48.5 next Saturday?

Seems like Petrino will play fast for 4 quarters. Ags have most of their offense back, minus Achane.

New Mexico has most of their offense back as well. They also only have 4 defensive players back.

Went 1-1 yesterday. Hit on San Diego State -2.5 and missed on Navy +21.


May not touch our game at all until I have a chance to see the offense. Lots of question marks.

Wrong thread lol