If the favorites all win this weekend, there will never have been a clearer CFP field of four - GA, UM, TCU and USC.

Yet #5 - probably tOSU, but it doesn't matter who it is - will complain. And that's because - first man out always complains since many like to complain.

If the field was 16, #17 would complain

If the field was 64, #65 would complain.

Keep this in mind when anyone uses complaining as a justification for CFP expansion - if the field were 128, #129 would complain.

Making post season games more entertaining? - valid reason. Someone getting left out? - not so much.

And nobody will care. There are some years where the #5 has a legit reason to complain. This year would not be it.

That being said, does anyone really think Bama, Tenn, Ohio St, etc. would not likely beat TCU? That is why the expansion needs to and is happening.

The sports radio people this morning in DFW were beside themselves with the thought that if TCU loses this weekend to K-State that they'll probably be left out.

The denial they have that the Big 12 isn't considered a top tier conference is hilarious.

tOSU complaining is part of their culture. They'll complain about anything.

Also pay attention to how undeserving the teams ranked ~ 9-12 are of having a shot at a national championship. Utah? I get that expansion is more exciting but 12 is too many.

So a 1-loss OSU should not be able to complain about losing a spot to 1-loss USC?

cevans_40 said:

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So a 1-loss OSU should not be able to complain about losing a spot to 1-loss USC?

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USC will be Pac 12 champ, if they win. So no.

Also, their 1 loss was by 1 point, on the road, to the #11 team in the country.

tOSU got the doors blown off them at home by Michigan.

wangus12 said:

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The sports radio people this morning in DFW were beside themselves with the thought that if TCU loses this weekend to K-State that they'll probably be left out.

The denial they have that the Big 12 isn't considered a top tier conference is hilarious.

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If K-State beats TCU, then OSU should absolutely jump them. I don't see how that is even debatable.

Hungry Ojos said:

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wangus12 said:

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The sports radio people this morning in DFW were beside themselves with the thought that if TCU loses this weekend to K-State that they'll probably be left out.

The denial they have that the Big 12 isn't considered a top tier conference is hilarious.

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If K-State beats TCU, then OSU should absolutely jump them. I don't see how that is even debatable.

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To be fair, the B1G is pretty bad this year.

wbt5845 said:

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If the favorites all win this weekend, there will never have been a clearer CFP field of four - GA, UM, TCU and USC.

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Well TCU and USC have the best opportunity to lose - that would be awesome !!

cevans_40 said:

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So a 1-loss OSU should not be able to complain about losing a spot to 1-loss USC?

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Artorias said:

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cevans_40 said:

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So a 1-loss OSU should not be able to complain about losing a spot to 1-loss USC?

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USC will be Pac 12 champ, if they win. So no.

Also, their 1 loss was by 1 point, on the road, to the #11 team in the country.

tOSU got the doors blown off them at home by Michigan.

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So Utah is as good as Michigan

Picadillo said:

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tOSU complaining is part of their culture. They'll complain about anything.

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Ummmm…. Have you looked around here lately? Or on any college football forum? Or really anywhere in our culture about almost any topic?

Complaining and whining is not exclusive to tOSU in any way, shape, or form. It is the culture we live in today.

If USC defeats Utah in the Pac-12 championship game, they will be a 12-1 Pac-12 champion. 11-1 Ohio State does not have a reason to complain about losing the last playoff spot to 12-1 Pac-12 Champion USC.

wbt5845 said:

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If the field was 64, #65 would complain.

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See Buzz Williams last year.

cevans_40 said:

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Artorias said:

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cevans_40 said:

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So a 1-loss OSU should not be able to complain about losing a spot to 1-loss USC?

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USC will be Pac 12 champ, if they win. So no.

Also, their 1 loss was by 1 point, on the road, to the #11 team in the country.

tOSU got the doors blown off them at home by Michigan.

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So Utah is as good as Michigan

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Please show me where anyone said that? If you cannot see the difference exaplined above, I don't know what to tell you. Clearly the committee sees it that way.

Hungry Ojos said:

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wangus12 said:

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The sports radio people this morning in DFW were beside themselves with the thought that if TCU loses this weekend to K-State that they'll probably be left out.

The denial they have that the Big 12 isn't considered a top tier conference is hilarious.

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If K-State beats TCU, then OSU should absolutely jump them. I don't see how that is even debatable.

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tOSU got housed at home in the last game of the year. Their best win is Penn State and they were losing in the 4th quarter when Penn State decided to crap the bed with turnovers. TCU has two top 10 wins per Segarin to tOSUs 1. If TCU gets destroyed by KState then I agree with you but if it's a close loss tOSU shouldn't jump in.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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If USC defeats Utah in the Pac-12 championship game, they will be a 12-1 Pac-12 champion. 11-1 Ohio State does not have a reason to complain about losing the last playoff spot to 12-1 Pac-12 Champion USC.

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as well as avenging usc one loss for the season.

AggieDub04 said:

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Hungry Ojos said:

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wangus12 said:

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The sports radio people this morning in DFW were beside themselves with the thought that if TCU loses this weekend to K-State that they'll probably be left out.

The denial they have that the Big 12 isn't considered a top tier conference is hilarious.

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If K-State beats TCU, then OSU should absolutely jump them. I don't see how that is even debatable.

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tOSU got housed at home in the last game of the year. Their best win is Penn State and they were losing in the 4th quarter when Penn State decided to crap the bed with turnovers. TCU has two top 10 wins per Segarin to tOSUs 1. If TCU gets destroyed by KState then I agree with you but if it's a close loss tOSU shouldn't jump in.

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While this may be true, you know the CFP will put tOSU in over TCU. One is a blue-blood, one is not. It is dumb, but it is reality.

Anytime you have judges, it's subjective.

Bigger sample = less subjective


Frankly, if you don't win your conference you don't deserve to be in.

It's less the complaining about being left out and more that it's possible for 5-10 to upset

wbt5845 said:

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If the favorites all win this weekend, there will never have been a clearer CFP field of four - GA, UM, TCU and USC.

Yet #5 - probably tOSU, but it doesn't matter who it is - will complain. And that's because - first man out always complains since many like to complain.

If the field was 16, #17 would complain

If the field was 64, #65 would complain.

Keep this in mind when anyone uses complaining as a justification for CFP expansion - if the field were 128, #129 would complain.

Making post season games more entertaining? - valid reason. Someone getting left out? - not so much.

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This is a terrible argument....

Yes, people will always complain, look at March Madness.

But you can't really be saying the complaints of a #5 team left out of a 4 team playoff are the same as a #65 left out of a 64 team tournament....

The number 5 team is a lot closer to the top 4 teams in ability and chances of winning than that #64 team....

With all the supposed improvements they've made in the process and taking SOS into account, why does it still come down to when teams lose?

The other annoying thing is Bama being ahead of UT. If the panel is doing that because Hooker is out then they're doing the same hypothetical BS they've always done.

National championships for each playoff seed since 2014:

1-seed: 2019, 2020
2-seed: 2015, 2016, 2018
3-seed: 2021
4-seed: 2014, 2017

That's a pretty good spread and a pretty good showing for the last-team-in, winning it all 25% of the time.
When the last team in is winning the title 0% of the time, then you know you don't have to expand anymore.

The transparency is poor. So it looks like there are considerations other than "best four" that have been used to especially Notre Dame's and Ohio State's benefit in 2020 as a specific example. That creates a sensation that the choice is therefore political probably with a focus on producing an optimized financial take for the CFP that then maximizes revenue distribution to participating conferences.

The conference championship designation and extra game breaks ties and behaves like a half game advantage which only really conveys to the ccg winner. Based on Notre Dame's selection in 2020 you could argue the ccg conveys a slight advantage to the losing team which might look like a quarter game advantage in breaking ties.

The result is if the losses are tied and the relative schedule strength is the same (rare) a ccg winner gets slotted first, a ccg loser second, a non ccg participant third.

This is likely why the SEC has agreed to the six best conference winners with having a ccg game being a differentiator that caused the Big 12 to add one.

As to jockeying before announcement: we are TERRIBLE as a school at doing this. Just absolutely AWFUL. Our nature is to expect our resume to speak for itself and we don't communicate at all what it means. So when we missed the cfp semi invite in 2020 and when our men's basketball missed the NCAA invite last spring we were left with publicly complaining with ESPN especially and loudly arguing the committees made the right choice.

For the cfp semi because ESPN benefits from that they arguably ARE conflicted and in basketball Lunardi made it personal (much like BZ did recently.) This is the strongest argument that Bjork is the wrong guy (though decay on many of our programs doesn't scream he is the right guy, either, but most of us think he is focused on fundraising and being the public face of our athletic department more than…so far at least…athletic excellence.)

So…specifically for Texas A&M how do we truly quit looking like we just can't manage getting in when we are close??? I'll argue any discussing after the decision is fruitless and causes the decision makers to align against us. Why doesn't that happen to other schools? Is this only a perception problem or is there a real issue with how our school leads and collects political capital and then protects that capital?

Ohio State and Notre Dame wield enormous ratings power by the way. Texas used to.

Not arguing what the committee will do. I'm arguing the notion that tOSU should be in with no argument is misguided.

InMyOpinion said:

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wbt5845 said:

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If the favorites all win this weekend, there will never have been a clearer CFP field of four - GA, UM, TCU and USC.

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Well TCU and USC have the best opportunity to lose - that would be awesome !!

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Yes, that would be hilarious if both went down.

AggieDub04 said:

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Hungry Ojos said:

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wangus12 said:

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The sports radio people this morning in DFW were beside themselves with the thought that if TCU loses this weekend to K-State that they'll probably be left out.

The denial they have that the Big 12 isn't considered a top tier conference is hilarious.

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If K-State beats TCU, then OSU should absolutely jump them. I don't see how that is even debatable.

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tOSU got housed at home in the last game of the year. Their best win is Penn State and they were losing in the 4th quarter when Penn State decided to crap the bed with turnovers. TCU has two top 10 wins per Segarin to tOSUs 1. If TCU gets destroyed by KState then I agree with you but if it's a close loss tOSU shouldn't jump in.

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Joey Galloway kept saying yesterday that Ohio State beat PSU soundly. I know he went to Ohio State but I would not call losing in the 4th quarter and then scoring right at the end beating them soundly.

Now Mich beat Ohio St soundly.

ONLY Georgia, Michigan, and TCU DESERVE a shot at the national championship right now. Ohio state and USC both have strength of schedules that are worse than TCU. It's very rare that the 5th seed DESERVES a shot at the national title. I'd prefer that we change to having a MAXIMUM of 4 teams in the playoff than expanding it, and I will continue to believe that until an undefeated power 5 conference champion is left out.

Right now there are legitimate reasons and arguments every year for 1 or 2 teams that did not make the 4 team field, primarily having to do with strength of schedule and games played.

There is almost no chance tcu goes 12-0 or even 11-1 playing Bama's schedule this season. But an expanded playoff would still include Bama this season, and likely tcu as well even if they lose the Big 12 champ. game.

Nobody will have legit reasons to complain with an expanded playoff, they may complain but will have no right to complain and nobody will care about their complaints or rationale for it.

We certainly deserved a top 4 spot in 2020. As an A&M fan we should all support the CFP expansion as a field of 12 is likely the only way we ever get in to have a legit chance.

But Bama and UT (the real UT) have strength of schedules much better / harder than tcu..........

Jarrin' Jay said:

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But Bama and UT (the real UT) have strength of schedules much better / harder than tcu..........

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No they don't.
http://powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php

On a different note, I don't understand how several analysts were saying that Michigan should be seeded #1. Great win at Ohio State but I guess everyone forgets that just a couple weeks ago they came very close to losing to IL at home. Also, outside of Ohio State and Penn State the Big 10 not that great and Michigan played a terrible non conf schedule.

Also, several analysts said TCU would still get in the playoffs even with a loss to K-State. I don't think that is necessarily true.

wbt5845 said:

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... but it doesn't matter who it is - will complain. And that's because - first man out always complains since many like to complain....

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Boy did we complain when Aggie Basketball got left out of March Madness this year.
It's all just par for the course when it comes to sports.

Artorias said:

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cevans_40 said:

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Artorias said:

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cevans_40 said:

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So a 1-loss OSU should not be able to complain about losing a spot to 1-loss USC?

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USC will be Pac 12 champ, if they win. So no.

Also, their 1 loss was by 1 point, on the road, to the #11 team in the country.

tOSU got the doors blown off them at home by Michigan.

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So Utah is as good as Michigan

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Please show me where anyone said that? If you cannot see the difference exaplined above, I don't know what to tell you. Clearly the committee sees it that way.

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He is trolling