.....I was convinced this offseason that we will a NC in the next 2-3 years with the talent on our payroll. Now, after APP STATE, not sure we have the right coach.

But all of that is in the context of a TERRIBLE game. I was overly harsh on this team after a one game setback. Still not sold on Jimbo, but he has built a Bama/UGA like defense. Good enough to win regardless of offense.

We play a talented team next week but it is at home...They have a subpar QB as well...and our defense is elite.

Win next week and we are back to pouring the maroon kool aid.

24-17 good guys.

The 2007 Michigan team that lost to App went 9-4 and beat a motivated Tebow in their bowl game before bowl games were uncool. Expect to beat Miami and Arkansas and have the hype machine back on until Mississippi State brings reality back.

Our talent alone will plenty of games. 8-5 and 9-4 are the new baseline. It's just those outcomes aren't very good or convincing in year 5. To be fair 9-4 against schedule is a pretty good year for us.

And Michigan didn't come close to a conference title for another 10 years...

TBF, star rankings are for recruits and reflect past talent. They're a lagging indicator. Our coaching might suck so bad that App State really does have more talented players at this point change to better development at the college level.

Until Harbaugh stopped using his offense which is what Jimbo needs to do

They played better on Saturday, that's for sure.

The Collective said:

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I think we are in the middle of an overreaction honestly. It is what fans do. The team isn't as good as projected but probably not as bad as we looked Saturday. I am interested in where things go. If we lose to Miami and Arkansas though, the bottom will probably fall out.

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I know a bunch of people have been tooting this horn now, but please watch Josh Pate's video on our game and tell us again it's "not as bad as we looked". If anything, this made me realize it's a lot worse than I thought initially. It's no longer just about switching QBs at this point

I did not remember that about the 2007 Michigan team. Interesting

Say what you will, bottoming out for this team is finishing 7-6. That's beyond abysmal. But its not going to be 4-8 or 3-9 like some you are screaming about.

App might be the 4th of 5th best team we play this year. Honestly think they beat Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina outright. Probably cover against Miami, Mississippi State, and and LSU.

Bottom line is We COULD lose to anyone and we'll beat some people too.

Perhaps Fisher is too close to the quarterbacks to be objective in selecting the starter. Maybe an OC could make a better choice in determining the starter. I would like to see the Aggies go after Phil Longo at North Carolina for OC. He has a history of high profile offenses at Sam Houston, Ole Miss and North Carolina. His offense put up 63 points against App.State the week before the Aggie game against them.

PascalsWager said:

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Say what you will, bottoming out for this team is finishing 7-6. That's beyond abysmal. But its not going to be 4-8 or 3-9 like some you are screaming about.

App might be the 4th of 5th best team we play this year. Honestly think they beat Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina outright. Probably cover against Miami, Mississippi State, and and LSU.

Bottom line is We COULD lose to anyone and we'll beat some people too.

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I hope you are right. But I was laughing three days ago at the guy who predicted a 3-3 start for us, thinking he had to be smoking something to offer that prediction.

We know for a fact where the ceiling is: 13-1. But with what I saw on Saturday, I think the floor can easily be below 7-6. It all depends upon how they respond this week.

Lose to Miami, and I think 4-8 is very reasonable for this team.

BrandonJ51 said:

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Until Harbaugh stopped using his offense which is what Jimbo needs to do

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More accurately he needs an OC. I have a hard time seeing him successfully change offenses after being stuck on this for so long.

PascalsWager said:

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The 2007 Michigan team that lost to App went 9-4 and beat a motivated Tebow in their bowl game before bowl games were uncool. Expect to beat Miami and Arkansas and have the hype machine back on until Mississippi State brings reality back.

Our talent alone will plenty of games. 8-5 and 9-4 are the new baseline. It's just those outcomes aren't very good or convincing in year 5. To be fair 9-4 against schedule is a pretty good year for us.

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That Michigan team didn't beat anyone that won 10 games that season. Florida was 9-4. Michigan also lost that year to Wisconsin by 16 and Oregon by 32 and both of those teams also finished 9-4, so it was mediocrity all the way around. Michigan's best win that year was over a 9-4 Illinois team that lost in the Rose Bowl. The average win total of the teams Michigan beat was 6. Considering Penn State, Illinois, and Florida all finished with 9 wins that year, most of the teams they beat had significantly fewer than 6.

We don't have many teams on our schedule that will win fewer than 6-7 games, so even if we get 2-3 wins, as Michigan did that year, as an outlier, we aren't going to get anywhere near 9 using this example as a template (or whatever you want to call it). Plus, we're looking at huge losses to good teams.

I don't think we are overreacting. Our D is pretty solid and held a good offense to 17 points despite being on the field ALL DAY. I think our DL is relatively small as the App state OL manhandled and pushed them off the LOS by two yards on almost every run play. After two games it is painfully obvious that the offense is terrible.

PascalsWager said:

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Say what you will, bottoming out for this team is finishing 7-6. That's beyond abysmal. But its not going to be 4-8 or 3-9 like some you are screaming about.

App might be the 4th of 5th best team we play this year. Honestly think they beat Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina outright. Probably cover against Miami, Mississippi State, and and LSU.

Bottom line is We COULD lose to anyone and we'll beat some people too.

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So you're saying their SEC ready?

I appreciate the optimism but this year teams are going in dry and deep on us.

All that matters now is how this program responds on Saturday. That's coaches and players. Upsets happen, a talented team taking an opponent lightly or not showing up happens.

PascalsWager said:

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Say what you will, bottoming out for this team is finishing 7-6. That's beyond abysmal. But its not going to be 4-8 or 3-9 like some you are screaming about.

App might be the 4th of 5th best team we play this year. Honestly think they beat Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina outright.

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This is absolutely DELUSIONAL thinking. They are no better than the 4th worst team.

91AggieLawyer said:

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PascalsWager said:

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The 2007 Michigan team that lost to App went 9-4 and beat a motivated Tebow in their bowl game before bowl games were uncool. Expect to beat Miami and Arkansas and have the hype machine back on until Mississippi State brings reality back.

Our talent alone will plenty of games. 8-5 and 9-4 are the new baseline. It's just those outcomes aren't very good or convincing in year 5. To be fair 9-4 against schedule is a pretty good year for us.

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That Michigan team didn't beat anyone that won 10 games that season. Florida was 9-4. Michigan also lost that year to Wisconsin by 16 and Oregon by 32 and both of those teams also finished 9-4, so it was mediocrity all the way around. Michigan's best win that year was over a 9-4 Illinois team that lost in the Rose Bowl. The average win total of the teams Michigan beat was 6. Considering Penn State, Illinois, and Florida all finished with 9 wins that year, most of the teams they beat had significantly fewer than 6.

We don't have many teams on our schedule that will win fewer than 6-7 games, so even if we get 2-3 wins, as Michigan did that year, as an outlier, we aren't going to get anywhere near 9 using this example as a template (or whatever you want to call it). Plus, we're looking at huge losses to good teams.

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How many games do we have in our ENTIRE history over teams that won 10 games? If that is your bar for a "good" team than almost NO ONE will ever meet it.

They beat 9 win Penn State, and 9 win Illinois as you said. They beat 8-5 Purdue. And two other bowl teams in 7 win Michigan State and 6 win Northwestern.

I would BE SHOCKED if our opponents win totals did NOT look similar to that at the end of the season. Most year The SEC doesn't have 6 teams that win 10 games.

In 2021 MS State, LSU, and Auburn were 6-7 win teams.
In 2019 4 of our 8 SEC opponents finished with 6 or less wins
in 2018 4 of our 8 SEC opponents finished with 6 or less wins

I could just keep going if you want.

91AggieLawyer said:

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PascalsWager said:

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Say what you will, bottoming out for this team is finishing 7-6. That's beyond abysmal. But its not going to be 4-8 or 3-9 like some you are screaming about.

App might be the 4th of 5th best team we play this year. Honestly think they beat Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina outright.

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This is absolutely DELUSIONAL thinking. They are no better than the 4th worst team.

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I don't have access to SP+. If you do go ahead post it and we can evaluate. Football outsiders has a strong F+ metric that's public though.

For 2021
App State #39
Miami #45
MS State #41
LSU #57
South Carolina #66

For 2019
App State #27
Miami #45
MS State #49
Ole Miss #48
South Carolina #50

Link
I'm showing you some evidence over a large sample size. Let's see some from you to back up your claims.

The Collective said:

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I think we are in the middle of an overreaction honestly. It is what fans do. The team isn't as good as projected but probably not as bad as we looked Saturday. I am interested in where things go. If we lose to Miami and Arkansas though, the bottom will probably fall out.

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I'm pretty sure a lot of people were saying we'd be better this season but the record may not reflect it because of young OL and schedule.

But it was expected the losses would come against SEC schools, not App State.

I hear you on that point. I just don't think our fate is fully decided yet. Football is a struggle - you either respond to adversity or you let it overtake you. We are about to find out a lot about this team over the next 3 weeks.

The Collective said:

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I hear you on that point. I just don't think our fate is fully decided yet. Football is a struggle - you either respond to adversity or you let it overtake you. We are about to find out a lot about this team over the next 3 weeks.

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Unfortunately, I believe Jimbo has repeatedly demonstrated he is too damn stubborn to change and the same QB will start and he'll continue to try and fit the square peg (the players) into a round hole (his O scheme) and the results will be much worse.

I mean we've all been in situations where you prepare, you get yourself ready to go and have a plan and realize the plan is not working but the people driving bus refuse to change lanes and drive off the cliff. Trying harder just makes that fall come a lot faster so you kind of just quit. The players are not going to continue to try hard if the guy driving the bus is headed for a cliff and won't do the obvious and change lanes.

I eat crow 'till the cows come home if things are different Saturday, but I don't think they will be.

agracer said:

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I eat crow 'till the cows come home if things are different Saturday, but I don't think they will be.

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I'd love for you to eat crow as well. I'm not confident at all either. Just not willing to say dumpster fire quite yet, because last year felt like we flirted with it all year and it never fully happened.