Aggie1188 said:
Give me Alabama by 30 over Orange-kansas.
30 might be a little high to actually drop money on, given that scores in that range tend to be dominated by whether the winning coach wants to get reps in more for his starters or backups. However, there are a few interesting stats of note here:
- Bama under Saban has beat the first P5 team they played each season by at least double digits. Every time. For 15 years in a row.
- Their average win margin against these teams is 23.6.
- Their average win margin against these teams that have been ranked is 23.3.
- Their average win margin against these teams that have been ranked in the top ten is 19.5 (four instances, with the only win coming in at less than 15 points being against Virginia Tech in Saban's 3rd year).
- In fact, Saban has only won by 15 points or less against these teams 3 times: his first year (2007) against Vandy, his third year (2009) against Virginia Tech, and 2014 against a West Virginia team that was only recently P5 and had gone 4-8 the previous year (and may therefore have flown under the radar a bit).
- Over the last 5 years (since Bama shifted offensive philosophies), excluding the 2020 year when he opened against an SEC team and had less off-season prep time than usual, Saban has won this opening game by an average of 34 points. Three of these five opponents were ranked.
Bet as you feel is warranted.