Look at how many points lsu has scored last 4 games. 17, 14, 13, 27 (against ULM). That's why

Depends on if the NSU (not show up) random modifier hits (State/Ole Miss).
I thought we exorcised that demon until the game in Oxford. But it still lives and can show up at any time.

A&M covering fully rests on turnovers. We've thrown more interceptions than LSU this year but they have almost two fumbles a game (18 on the year!).

A&M is undefeated this year in games where we tie or win the turnover battle. We don't have to win that but we can't lose it. LSU has one loss where they tied the turnover battle (UCLA), other than that they've lost the turnover battle in all of their losses.

In the away games we've struggled in the offense has cost us significantly with turnovers.
Colorado - Calzada fumbled at the goal line costing us 7
Arky - late INT to seal the game.
Ole Miss - safety, pick 6 and int at our 15 lead to 16 points in a game we lose by 10. Even if the defense holds that's 12 points in a 10 point loss that, with an extra point, is a cover.

Even at home vs MSU the offense had an early int for a FG and a safety leading to 5 points in a 4 point loss.

If Calzada is patient and doesn't get rattled we should cover. He doesn't have to be Bama good, just manage the game and let the running game and defense carry the day.

I was at the game in Baton Rouge the year LSU put a complete beat down on us. I didn't think the atmosphere was all that intimidating. LSU's season is basically done and we have momentum on our side. I'd like to see Jimbo get a little payback for the last time we were there.

I'd be surprised if they even get close to selling out. They don't hate us like they hate Alabama, they simply don't respect us. I just don't think the players or fans really care at this point. My wife is from south Louisiana and I'm there now. They all think they'll lose. Plus, none of them really care. So I think their apathy is infectious.

All I can say is that I'm glad to see it.

Vegas is right more often than wrong.

Crazy line. I really think LSU is going to win this game--call me a traitor, whatever, but I am just being completely honest based on past performances.

Just an Ag said:

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LSU has been competitive in mostly every game this year, and they are playing for a bowl (right), it is a night game in Baton Rogue and season regular season finale, and they are playing last game for Coach O. We better be ready to play!

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This Saturday apparently is the last game for Orgeron's staff regardless of whether they win or not. There appears to be disinterest by LSU admin to even go to a bowl. They are ready to turn the page.

I don't see 'making a bowl' as much motivation for them. Saturday is The End.

It will be Ed O's final game though and I would expect LSU to gamble a lot and play really loose, go for it on a lot of 4th downs, a couple trick plays, blitz us a bunch on D, etc. That is the main thing I'd expect. Aggressive play calling by them on both sides of the ball.

Just an Ag said:

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LSU has been competitive in mostly every game this year, and they are playing for a bowl (right), it is a night game in Baton Rogue and season regular season finale, and they are playing last game for Coach O. We better be ready to play!

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This

TMartin said:

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Start fast boys.

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This. We start fast then we crush their hopes and it's over. They're fragile right now. But let them hang around and they have the talent to beat us regardless of how bad their coach is

jeepdriver54 said:

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Again, please remember the line by Vegas is set to equalize bets on both sides. Vegas doesn't think we are better, they think more idiots will bet on us than LUS. Will any of you realize this? EVER?

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No, we ain't got no sense.

A. LSU looked very beatable against ULM yesterday.
B. People on tiger droppings were talking about how this game has attendance issues in the past for them., let alone when theyre playing for next to nothing.

Dear anyone affiliated w/ LSU who says they don't care about the LSU/A&M game this week…

Ian Neff said:

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All I can say is that I'm glad to see it.

Vegas is right more often than wrong.

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You're exactly right, in every game on the Vegas line, either the favorite covers or the dog covers and the house takes their ten percent and heads to the bank.

Yeesh. Seems like a no brainer. I don't bet A&M games, but if I did I would take LSU +7 in BR all day.

Ags away from Kyle:

10-7 colofugginrado
10-20 Arky
35-14 Mizzou (yay)
19-29 Ole Miss

We've scored total of 4 pts more on road in four games against competition that is on average about the same as LSU. We're averaging 18.5 pts per game.

This is a 50/50 game AT BEST. Throw in the intangibles and it's LSU's game to lose.

Divining Rod said:

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Ags away from Kyle:

10-7 colofugginrado
10-20 Arky
35-14 Mizzou (yay)
19-29 Ole Miss

We've scored total of 4 pts more on road in four games against competition that is on average about the same as LSU. We're averaging 18.5 pts per game.

This is a 50/50 game AT BEST. Throw in the intangibles and it's LSU's game to lose.

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Agree. I take those points all day long and pray A&M wins a close one.

.

jeepdriver54 said:

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Again, please remember the line by Vegas is set to equalize bets on both sides. Vegas doesn't think we are better, they think more idiots will bet on us than LUS. Will any of you realize this? EVER?

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When will idiots like you realize that if Vegas adjusted the number too far one way or the other, that they would lose all the money? Here are some neutral predictions by (relatively) reputable sources.

SP+: Ags by 13.7
FPI: Ags by 3.7 (61.7% win chance)
Sagarin: Ags by 4.34, 5.13, and 7.93 using their three methods.

But by all means, feel free to bet the money line if you are so sure that Vegas is intentionally giving you money.

I don't know what to expect from LSU.

Nor from A&M at this point.

Was LSU +7 ever actually available at any sportsbook?

Its showing +6.5 everywhere I have seen.

Ugly said:

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jeepdriver54 said:

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Again, please remember the line by Vegas is set to equalize bets on both sides. Vegas doesn't think we are better, they think more idiots will bet on us than LUS. Will any of you realize this? EVER?

---

When will idiots like you realize that if Vegas adjusted the number too far one way or the other, that they would lose all the money? Here are some neutral predictions by (relatively) reputable sources.

SP+: Ags by 13.7
FPI: Ags by 3.7 (61.7% win chance)
Sagarin: Ags by 4.34, 5.13, and 7.93 using their three methods.

But by all means, feel free to bet the money line if you are so sure that Vegas is intentionally giving you money.

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I don't think Vegas is giving away free money, but I sure as heck don't think any of those predictions pass the smell test. We're simply not good at scoring points on the road, and I don't know why anyone would think we will all of a sudden rise up and hang 50 on LSU at Death Valley. I don't think LSU will score very many, either, but this one is harder than Ole Miss (and we know how that turned out).

LSU allowed Auburn and Arkansas to break trends in Baton Rouge.
1. Auburn defeated LSU 24-19 on 10/2 for their first win in Baton Rouge in 22 years and in the 21st century. Auburn's previous win in Baton Rouge was a 41-7 drubbing on 9/18/99.
2. Arkansas defeated LSU 16-13 in overtime 9 days ago for their first win over LSU in 6 years. Arkansas' previous win over LSU was a a 31-14 rout in Baton Rouge on 11/14/15.

LSU's only SEC home win was a 49-42 win over Florida on 10/16. In that game, LSU was a 10.5 point underdog to Florida, but they won the turnover margin 4 to 0. Since scoring 49 points against Florida, LSU scored just 17 against Ole Miss, 14 against Alabama, 13 against Arkansas, and 27 against Louisiana Monroe in their last 4 games. By contrast, their defense has been much improved and held these opponents to 31, 20, 16, and 14 points respectively.

For these reasons, we are currently a 6.5-point road favorite in Baton Rouge. Both Texas A&M and LSU have strong defenses, and this game will probably be a defensive slugfest. I predict a 24-17 win over LSU.

Little Rock Ag said:

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Ugly said:

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jeepdriver54 said:

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Again, please remember the line by Vegas is set to equalize bets on both sides. Vegas doesn't think we are better, they think more idiots will bet on us than LUS. Will any of you realize this? EVER?

---

When will idiots like you realize that if Vegas adjusted the number too far one way or the other, that they would lose all the money? Here are some neutral predictions by (relatively) reputable sources.

SP+: Ags by 13.7
FPI: Ags by 3.7 (61.7% win chance)
Sagarin: Ags by 4.34, 5.13, and 7.93 using their three methods.

But by all means, feel free to bet the money line if you are so sure that Vegas is intentionally giving you money.

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I don't think Vegas is giving away free money, but I sure as heck don't think any of those predictions pass the smell test. We're simply not good at scoring points on the road, and I don't know why anyone would think we will all of a sudden rise up and hang 50 on LSU at Death Valley. I don't think LSU will score very many, either, but this one is harder than Ole Miss (and we know how that turned out).

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I don't expect us to score even 30 points on LSU in Baton Rouge. Yes, our offense has struggled on the road. Other than a 35-14 win over Missouri, we have not scored more than 19 points away from Kyle Field. I just think we will win a defensive slugfest, like Arkansas did. I am predicting a 24-17 win over LSU.

I don't expect to win this game unless Zach plays much better.

8-4 with QB2, 2 true fish OL and all the WR injuries.... that would actually be a decent season.

9-3 with all that would be fantastic and one of Jimbo's best coaching jobs ever.

This game will 100% be on Zach. LSU still has good players on D, and they will load the box to stuff the run. Zach must play well from kickoff and hit enough passes in 1Q to make the LSU D play honest.

I just see this playing out like the Pig or State game unfortunately.

Hoping / praying to be wrong.

Won't surprise me if the game stays somewhat close, but I think we'll win without a lot of drama in the end.

I don't see this as the matchup problem that Miss St and Ole Miss presented. While Arkansas was a good matchup for us on paper, our team was still in adolescent growing mode and we weren't playing well at either the offensive line or QB position.

Today our offensive line has evolved into a solid B strength and our QB play has improved from D/F to a solid C. Overall, we're a much better team than the one that played Miss St and Arkansas.

We have struggled on the road no question, however, the game in Oxford does give the team a frame of reference and I think we'll be better this time around.

Aggies are going in dry and its not going to be close. Ags by 3 touchdowns.

Easy money.