aggie813 said:
I hate to say it but, overall I give the edge to Auburn. They are sharp, coming off a top 10 win. We are coming off a bye week and historically we come out flat after a bye.
Yes, we were usually flat after bye week under Kevin Sumlin. Kevin Sumlin went 2-6 after bye weeks, and one of those wins was a very uninspiring 21-16 home win over Louisiana Monroe after the first bye week in 2014. Even worse, Sumlin lost his last 5 SEC games after bye weeks, including 3 at Kyle Field.
2012: lost to Florida 20-17 at home. Hurricane Isaac forced a Week 1 bye for Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M.
2013: defeated Ole Miss 41-38 on the road and lost at LSU 34-10.
2014: defeated Louisiana Monroe 21-16 and lost to LSU 23-17 at home
2015: lost to Alabama 41-23 at home
2016: lost at Alabama 33-16
2017: lost to Mississippi State 35-14 at home
By contrast, Jimbo Fisher is 3-2 after bye weeks. Jimbo Fisher had lost his first two games after a bye week, but has won his last three such games. In 2018, Mississippi State had the second best scoring defense (13.2 points per game) behind only Clemson. There was no way Kellen Mond and our offense would have scored much against that defense. Then in 2019, we faced Alabama after the first bye week. Since then, Jimbo has not lost after a bye.
2018: lost at Mississippi State 28-13
2019: lost to Alabama 47-28 at home and defeated South Carolina 30-6
2020: defeated LSU 20-7 after 2 weeks off and Tennessee 34-13 after another bye
Auburn had a bye week before playing an Ole Miss team that was coming off a 31-17 home win over LSU. Likewise, we have a bye week before hosting Auburn, who was coming off a 31-20 home win over Ole Miss. That's why we are currently 6-point favorites.