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Utah's Kyle Whittingham: "It's just the tip of the iceberg"

6,719 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by JW
Iraq2xVeteran
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The last time there was a significant shift in the complexion of Division I conferences more than a decade ago, the University of Utah emerged as one of the big winners of the process. When Colorado left the Big 12 for a Pac-10 invite in early June 2010, the league sought a 12th team, eventually calling on Utah.

With Texas and Oklahoma declaring their intent to leave the Big 12 and join the SEC this week, more significant conference movement is on the horizon. Nobody quite knows what the fallout will look like, but Kyle Whittingham, whose football program was a central figure in the last round of realignment, has some thoughts on the matter.

"It's the tip of the iceberg," the longtime Utes head coach told The Salt Lake Tribune Tuesday at Pac-12 media day at The W Hollywood. "I think there's a seismic shift that's going to take place in college football and it'll never be the same down the road once all this change takes place. Right now, everyone's trying to scramble to get themselves positioned for, financially first of all, and relevance."

Whittingham has long been a proponent of expanding the College Football Playoff. The current four-team format, in place since the event's inception in 2014, is likely to give way to a 12-team format later this decade, but Whittingham doesn't believe it will stop there. "I think the Playoff will go to 16, I don't think there's any way around that," Whittingham said. "There's too much money being left on the table, bottom line. The final arrangement is going to be what is financially best. That's what's going to happen."

While a 16-team format is not currently on the table, moving to 12 teams would give the Pac-12 greater ability to contend for a national championship. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be the top-four seed and receive a first-round bye, while seeds 5-12 would play each other in the first round.

Under the four-team format, the conference has been mostly a non-factor. In 2014, Oregon won a CFP semifinal before falling to Ohio State in the championship game. Washington got rolled in a 2016 semifinal, and that has been the extent of the Pac-12s participation on college football's biggest stage. Two programs, and none in the last five seasons.

https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2021/07/28/utahs-kyle-whittingham/
Iowaggie
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From a non-P5 perspective, the start of this realignment is much more foreboding. In the past, there was always a hope for a G5 school to sneak into a P5 conference, but this is different. This is P5 schools purging the weaker members.


If I was PAC or Big Ten or ACC, unless there was this great property (maybe Kansas) out there, I'm not making moves. I'm just thinking the SEC is hurting their post-season revenue chances, and OU-T just made it tougher to make the post-season as the new playoffs basically guaranteed the B12 champ a spot and they either need to win the SEC or hope for at-large (which would have been much easier in the B12). Now, I think the SEC either has to stay at 8 games or they've just made it tougher on themselves to get the 6 at-large spots.

That means less post-season playoff revenue for the new SEC teams split among more teams.

And I don't understand why Ms State, Ole Miss or even Florida would want to make it tougher on themselves to get to the playoff or even have a winning season.
Sparkie
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It's going the way of March Madness for college football playoffs. At first, I thought the added playoff games would be too much for college athletes. Now that they are paid, go earn your money.
rootube
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He should be very concerned same for Colorado, Cal, Oregon St, Arizona. They may be snapping the line and several PAC teams could end up below the cut line.
aggiehawg
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Iowaggie said:

From a non-P5 perspective, the start of this realignment is much more foreboding. In the past, there was always a hope for a G5 school to sneak into a P5 conference, but this is different. This is P5 schools purging the weaker members.


If I was PAC or Big Ten or ACC, unless there was this great property (maybe Kansas) out there, I'm not making moves. I'm just thinking the SEC is hurting their post-season revenue chances, and OU-T just made it tougher to make the post-season as the new playoffs basically guaranteed the B12 champ a spot and they either need to win the SEC or hope for at-large (which would have been much easier in the B12). Now, I think the SEC either has to stay at 8 games or they've just made it tougher on themselves to get the 6 at-large spots.

That means less post-season playoff revenue for the new SEC teams split among more teams.

And I don't understand why Ms State, Ole Miss or even Florida would want to make it tougher on themselves to get to the playoff or even have a winning season.
Agree with all of that. The days when the SEC fulfilled all of their bowl commitments will be over. Hell, most of the bowls will go away anyway with the insane 12 team playoff. It will be hard enough for a very deep fully stocked team to go through 16 games. But a G5 team won't have the depth to make it through that many rounds in an expanded playoff.
Gramercy Riffs
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I guess I didn't realize Utah "was a central figure in the last round of realignment."
aginresearch
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I'd say chances are high that the PAC-12 is in danger of falling apart much like the Big 12 is currently. The Big 10 will merge with select schools from the PAC-12 and discard the rest. The two strongest conferences are the SEC and Big 10. If you are not currently a member of either of those two conferences you had best have a very good resume and revenue profile or else.
Jarrin' Jay
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Iowaggie said:

From a non-P5 perspective, the start of this realignment is much more foreboding. In the past, there was always a hope for a G5 school to sneak into a P5 conference, but this is different. This is P5 schools purging the weaker members.


If I was PAC or Big Ten or ACC, unless there was this great property (maybe Kansas) out there, I'm not making moves. I'm just thinking the SEC is hurting their post-season revenue chances, and OU-T just made it tougher to make the post-season as the new playoffs basically guaranteed the B12 champ a spot and they either need to win the SEC or hope for at-large (which would have been much easier in the B12). Now, I think the SEC either has to stay at 8 games or they've just made it tougher on themselves to get the 6 at-large spots.

That means less post-season playoff revenue for the new SEC teams split among more teams.

And I don't understand why Ms State, Ole Miss or even Florida would want to make it tougher on themselves to get to the playoff or even have a winning season.

The SEC can't stay at 8 games, they will need 9 games to have enough TV inventory to justify the $ amounts being discussed, IMHO.
greg.w.h
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I'm hoping for ten. Last year was what college football should be.
rootube
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Probably right but there are a heck of a lot more than two teams in the PAC despite their recent struggles.
aginresearch
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Absolutely, I don't see this stopping at 16 team super conferences. There is more expansion coming.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Under the four-team format, the conference has been mostly a non-factor. In 2014, Oregon won a CFP semifinal before falling to Ohio State in the championship game. Washington got rolled in a 2016 semifinal, and that has been the extent of the Pac-12s participation on college football's biggest stage. Two programs, and none in the last five seasons.
There is a direct reason for why the PAC 12 has been a non-factor in the CFP scheme. They went to a 9 conference game schedule. Ask the math students down in Stanford as to how that hurts their W-L records unnecessarily. They only have 12 teams. Should have stuck to an 8 conference game schedule.

Same thing goes for the B1G. Self-inflicted wounds.

Math is hard.
aggiehawg
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aginresearch said:

Absolutely, I don't see this stopping at 16 team super conferences. There is more expansion coming.
If true, then the PAC would need 4 schools. ACC-one after Notre Dame, B1G-two. I don't think the PAC will be able to find 4 additional universities that would be acceptable to a majority of the current member schools. So maybe they go to 14 and hold there.
aTm2004
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The B1G is currently at 14 schools, so they need 2 to get to 16.

The ACC is currently at 14 schools (not including ND as a full member), so they need to add 2 to get to 16

Pac is currently at 12.

So, there are 8 little sisters of the poor left with only 7 spots available. The way I see it playing out is both the B1G and ACC make a huge push for Notre Dame, and what ND chooses will decide the rest.

If ND goes to the ACC, the ACC will take West Virginia and get to 16. Then the B1G will take Kansas and another BDF school (Iowa State maybe with it's AAU).

If ND goes B1G, then just Kansas goes while the ACC gets WVU and one of the BDF schools.

The Pac will need to swallow it's academic and religious pride and absorb 4 of the remaining 5 schools, and this is a chance to get games in the central time zone, which they desperately need. Which one gets left out? What happens if BYU enters the chat?
aginresearch
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The PAC-12 is not going to survive. It's a zombie. I'd also be concerned about the ACC as well.
4
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The non P5 schools need their own division.

It's well past time. It's silly to have them competing with schools 10 times their size.

Not good for them, not good for us.
Iowaggie
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Jarrin' Jay said:

Iowaggie said:

From a non-P5 perspective, the start of this realignment is much more foreboding. In the past, there was always a hope for a G5 school to sneak into a P5 conference, but this is different. This is P5 schools purging the weaker members.


If I was PAC or Big Ten or ACC, unless there was this great property (maybe Kansas) out there, I'm not making moves. I'm just thinking the SEC is hurting their post-season revenue chances, and OU-T just made it tougher to make the post-season as the new playoffs basically guaranteed the B12 champ a spot and they either need to win the SEC or hope for at-large (which would have been much easier in the B12). Now, I think the SEC either has to stay at 8 games or they've just made it tougher on themselves to get the 6 at-large spots.

That means less post-season playoff revenue for the new SEC teams split among more teams.

And I don't understand why Ms State, Ole Miss or even Florida would want to make it tougher on themselves to get to the playoff or even have a winning season.

The SEC can't stay at 8 games, they will need 9 games to have enough TV inventory to justify the $ amounts being discussed, IMHO.

I agree, and ESPN may even request 10-games since they are calling the shots and would rather have 1 game of Florida-Texas instead of two games of Florida v FIU and Texas vs Sam Houston St.

If they are playing 9 games (or 10) it really hurts the conference's chances to get an additional team or two into the playoffs.
Emilio Fantastico
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aginresearch said:

Absolutely, I don't see this stopping at 16 team super conferences. There is more expansion coming.
It would seem that a 20 team super-conference would be the ultimate goal.

You would have four 5-team pods.

You would play the four other teams in your pod (2 home, 2 road).
Two pods would play each other for five more conference games for a total of 9.
Which two pods play each other would rotate each year so you play each pod in three years.
Best record from each two pods that matched up against each other would play in the CCG.
This would also balance things out in the conference over time as relative strength shifts as it has with SEC East vs SEC West.

The tricky thing would be trying to balance out the home/road games in the pod to pod matchups both at the pod level and the individual team level since it will be a 3H/2R or 2H/3R for each team/pod.
aTm2004
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4 said:

The non P5 schools need their own division.

It's well past time. It's silly to have them competing with schools 10 times their size.

Not good for them, not good for us.
Yep, and it will happen. When it does, I'll find one of those schools to support as well since it will be what college football once was.
bslater07
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This needs to get down to 2 conferences with specific criteria for making the playoffs. No more media, playoff committee, whatever. NO HUMAN/s should be deciding who makes the playoffs. It's absurd on the face of it.
ColoradoMooseHerd
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Texas Tech is going to be very interesting. Are they close enough to a major market to make them relevant in the realignment conversation. Will TCU be the school that benefits the most, being situated in the DFW Area.

Would Pac-12 accept TCU to bring in the Texas Market?
Would the ACC accept SMU to get the Texas Market?

Both conferences would probably love to have regular games in the DFW area for recruiting and brand marketing for Football, Basketball and possibly student recruitment

Baylor and Tech could be left out as not flagships and not in major markets without stretching a little bit.
Sgt. Schultz
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ColoradoMooseHerd said:

Texas Tech is going to be very interesting. Are they close enough to a major market to make them relevant in the realignment conversation. Will TCU be the school that benefits the most, being situated in the DFW Area.

Would Pac-12 accept TCU to bring in the Texas Market?
Would the ACC accept SMU to get the Texas Market?

Both conferences would probably love to have regular games in the DFW area for recruiting and brand marketing for Football, Basketball and possibly student recruitment

Baylor and Tech could be left out as not flagships and not in major markets without stretching a little bit.
Ok State and tech have a lot of grads in DFW and Houston. I would think tech and okie state are sort of joined at the hip. Add TCU and between the 3 schools, you would have pretty good viewership in DFW and to a lesser extent Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and the rest of Texas. BYU would be the 4th team to the PAC. Baylor and K-State seem to be the odd schools out.
I know nothing!
ColoradoMooseHerd
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Sgt. Schultz said:

ColoradoMooseHerd said:

Texas Tech is going to be very interesting. Are they close enough to a major market to make them relevant in the realignment conversation. Will TCU be the school that benefits the most, being situated in the DFW Area.

Would Pac-12 accept TCU to bring in the Texas Market?
Would the ACC accept SMU to get the Texas Market?

Both conferences would probably love to have regular games in the DFW area for recruiting and brand marketing for Football, Basketball and possibly student recruitment

Baylor and Tech could be left out as not flagships and not in major markets without stretching a little bit.
Ok State and tech have a lot of grads in DFW and Houston. I would think tech and okie state are sort of joined at the hip. Add TCU and between the 3 schools, you would have pretty good viewership in DFW and to a lesser extent Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and the rest of Texas. BYU would be the 4th team to the PAC. Baylor and K-State seem to be the odd schools out.
What is more important having graduates that live there are being there? If it is for recruiting.
What benefit does UCLA get for traveling to Lubbock? Zero
What benefit does Clemson get for traveling to Stillwater? Zero

In my opinion there would be more value to Pac 12 schools to have football and basketball games in Dallas, not Lubbock and Stillwater.
Buford T. Justice
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They should put all of the games on an odd night, like Tuesday. If it is all about tv revenue, who gives a damn about the gate?
Buford T. Justice
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That is a very interesting scenario that you presented.
I'm not the up to speed on the enrollment composition of either TCU or SMU, but generally speaking, aren't there a lot of California kids at both universities?
Buford T. Justice
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IMO, the simplest way is to allow only the conference champions to advance to the playoff. It is transparent and consistent. It makes too much sense.
Sgt. Schultz
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ColoradoMooseHerd said:

Sgt. Schultz said:

ColoradoMooseHerd said:

Texas Tech is going to be very interesting. Are they close enough to a major market to make them relevant in the realignment conversation. Will TCU be the school that benefits the most, being situated in the DFW Area.

Would Pac-12 accept TCU to bring in the Texas Market?
Would the ACC accept SMU to get the Texas Market?

Both conferences would probably love to have regular games in the DFW area for recruiting and brand marketing for Football, Basketball and possibly student recruitment

Baylor and Tech could be left out as not flagships and not in major markets without stretching a little bit.
Ok State and tech have a lot of grads in DFW and Houston. I would think tech and okie state are sort of joined at the hip. Add TCU and between the 3 schools, you would have pretty good viewership in DFW and to a lesser extent Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and the rest of Texas. BYU would be the 4th team to the PAC. Baylor and K-State seem to be the odd schools out.
What is more important having graduates that live there are being there? If it is for recruiting.
What benefit does UCLA get for traveling to Lubbock? Zero
What benefit does Clemson get for traveling to Stillwater? Zero

In my opinion there would be more value to Pac 12 schools to have football and basketball games in Dallas, not Lubbock and Stillwater.
Who is to say that Tech and Ok State won't be required to play one "home game" each in jerry world every year against a west coast team? That would be a concession they would happily make in order to remain semi-relevant.

Playing tech or ok state during the day on tv in dallas matters more to recruits than starting a game at 9:30-10:00 at night when everyone is partying and not watching football. The PAC is *****ing about 9:00 am PST west coast games in order to have more national exposure. At least an 11:00 game in central time zone will have a central team involved and some eyeballs. If the PAC doesn't expand east, the AAU members may get picked off by the B1G.
I know nothing!
Divining Rod
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aTm2004 said:

4 said:

The non P5 schools need their own division.

It's well past time. It's silly to have them competing with schools 10 times their size.

Not good for them, not good for us.
Yep, and it will happen. When it does, I'll find one of those schools to support as well since it will be what college football once was.


yep, as i said. eventually this will come full circle and the " amateur" league will have the better product, as far as entertainment and pure enjoyment.
Iowaggie
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4 said:

The non P5 schools need their own division.

It's well past time. It's silly to have them competing with schools 10 times their size.

Not good for them, not good for us.


I've been saying that for a while, but realistically, what's changed for the G5 schools with this move?
Maybe less hope that they will move into a power conference, but Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Memphis, Cincinnati were operating on tens of millions less per year than Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee or Ohio State, now the gap is wider, but it doesn't change that there are those with a lot more money than other schools.


UTExan
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Gramercy Riffs said:

I guess I didn't realize Utah "was a central figure in the last round of realignment."


Actually it was. Second perfect BCS busting season in 5 years plus a physical beat down of Saban's Alabama team in the 2009 Sugar Bowl. Don't believe me: watch the game footage.
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Divining Rod
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OkSU needs to stay close to Tech, who needs to stay close to TCU. THey deliver significant value from a geographic, socioeconomic, and athletic perspective.

Depending how watered diwn this expansion becomes, they might make up a nice partial pod.

Dont disregard value of Amarillo/Lubbock/Midland/Odessa with combined population of 800,000 and all the regional folks in west texas and panhandle. lots of tech eyes and hearts out there, not just in DFW.
VOLvo
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Iowaggie said:

4 said:

The non P5 schools need their own division.

It's well past time. It's silly to have them competing with schools 10 times their size.

Not good for them, not good for us.


I've been saying that for a while, but realistically, what's changed for the G5 schools with this move?
Maybe less hope that they will move into a power conference, but Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Memphis, Cincinnati were operating on tens of millions less per year than Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee or Ohio State, now the gap is wider, but it doesn't change that there are those with a lot more money than other schools.


What I see changing is the TV money.

Small schools are going to get less big paydays playing giants because the money for TV is in the conference games. There's just not enough slots and ESPN is going to "request" (read: negotiate) for more conference games which draw more eyes.

Small schools are going to lose even the "tiny network" exposure because there's no money there at all and less time slots open. No exposure, no money..... the programs starve.

I don't see a solution but I do hope someone in the smaller college ranks finds one.
JW
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32 teams will be in 2 conf with 4 divisions each. Sound familiar?
aggiehawg
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JW said:

32 teams will be in 2 conf with 4 divisions each. Sound familiar?
And then the ratings will crash and the money starts to dry up. Get too small and many people will lose interest unless they went to that school or are a diehard T-shirt fan.
supahfly
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40% of TCU's student body is from California, so there would be alumni/families in Cali if TCU joined Pac12.

Not sure any of the Big 12 schools meet the Pac-12's "academic" standards." They are snooty that way. The "C" in TCU may be an issue, as well . . .

As far as Texas Tech possibly joining the Pac, a visit to Lubbock may keep the California folks from moving to Texas. yee-haw.
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