Someone here edit: i went back and saw it was hunter2012 last week made a GREAT point which I think needs acknowledging, and has me changing positions on A&M's chances.

First, so I dont bury the lead: A one- loss ND team that loses ACC CCG is not making the playoffs over one-loss A&M.

Same for a one- loss Ohio St team AND a one-loss Bama team, if those losses are in the Conf Champ game.

The Selection Committee (and yes, its membership changes) treats conf championship games as a de facto play-in game to the NC Playoff.

No team has ever lost a CCG and made the playoffs. A one-loss team that did not qualify for its CCG has twice made it into Playoffs over a CCG loser (and winner) that beat it earlier in season.

The Committee (wisely) does not want to see a potential rematch of two teams that played each other a month before.

Theres a certain "you had your chance" reality; if you lose your Conference Championsip game at end of season, you really can't complain to us that you deserve to play for the National Championship.

Especially when A&M's loss was so early in the season, if it looks fairly impressive (not even outstanding or dominant) in its last few games, it should be in.

Any other result would be the Committee acting contrary to everything it has done previously.


SINCE I REACHED MY POSTING LIMIT:

JJxvi said:

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IMO, the committee would not be as reticent to put two teams into the playoff right after playing in the CCG if those two teams went 1-1 against each other as Clemson and Notre Dame would be if this were to come to pass this year.

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Presumably both teams would be full strength in CCG and THAT should be the final ( and only) determinant of who is best and deserves to play for a NC. why should ND get another bite when it already had a chance to prove it REALLY was better than a full strength Clemson team? It's a weak argument to claim the earlier season close win at home over a weakened Clemson team is on par with the more recent CCG that favored no one. the Committee will not go for it.

Gigemags382 said:

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.....But in what universe does A&M get in over Bama if Bama's only loss is in the SEC championship, considering that Bama demolished A&M and won the division?

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The Selection Committee invariably plays the "what have you done for me lately?"
game, often excusing prior (and especially early) season results.

FL would obviously be much improved if it beats Bama, and A&M (who beat FL) is also obviously much improved. It is completely forseeable the Committee will look at
Bama's loss and say "Bama? Not so much"!

Alpha Texan said:

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Might have been my post. I really do feel confident we're in if we win out but i won't be upset if we don't make it.

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i went back and saw it was hunter 2012, but seriously, Alpha, i really like your posts and have been wanting to complement you on your thoughtful reasoning, especially (and hope this doesnt seem patronizing) for a young person. i think you have a certain wisdom lacking in so many. And no, zoo, i dont need to get a room!

Divining Rod said:

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Someone here last week made a GREAT point which I think needs acknowledging.

First, so I dont bury the lead: A one- loss ND team is not making the playoffs over one-loss A&M.

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I stopped reading after this...

what

Your premise is incorrect. The media is dying for ND to make the playoffs, and last time they were this good was the in the 80's. Two ACC teams are far more likely to make it than two SEC teams. Sucks but true.

A lot of games to play still. Some of you haven't been here long enough to catch BAS I guess

IMO, the committee would not be as reticent to put two teams into the playoff right after playing in the CCG if those two teams went 1-1 against each other as Clemson and Notre Dame would be if this were to come to pass this year.

rootube said:

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Your premise is incorrect. The media is dying for ND to make the playoffs, and last time they were this good was the in the 80's. Two ACC teams are far more likely to make it than two SEC teams. Sucks but true.

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I agree completely. Luckily the media doesn't vote. And it's not like ND hasn't already had its Playoff chances. This is no renaissance for ND after 40 yrs if wandering the desert. They're a two-time flop in the playoffs.

I agree but they also don't use strict criteria for a reason. Past decisions don't necessarily dictate future rulings. That being said they seem to strongly dislike conference championship rematches.

Divining Rod said:

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Someone here last week made a GREAT point which I think needs acknowledging, and has me changing positions on A&M's chances.

First, so I dont bury the lead: A one- loss ND team that loses ACC CCG is not making the playoffs over one-loss A&M.

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They absolutely are

There is ZERO chance that a one loss A&M gets in over a one loss Notre Dame team.

I mean maybe there's an argument for 1-loss A&M getting in over 1-loss ND.

But in what universe does A&M get in over Bama if Bama's only loss is in the SEC championship, considering that Bama demolished A&M and won the division?

Our best bet to make the playoffs is to win out and have notre dame do the same. That would eliminate a two loss Clemson team and move us up to 4. Also need bama to win out. If these three things happen we are in.

SinKiller said:

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There is ZERO chance that a one loss A&M gets in over a one loss Notre Dame team.

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Your missing the point, a conference championship loser is not making the playoff according to past committee rulings. It does not matter if it's Alabama with a loss to Florida or Notre Dame with a loss to Clemson.

Or we could petition the league to allow us to sched BYU and play our way in. Just saying.

If ND and Ags go 1-loss, we will not be the choice. I think people hanging their hats on TWO cases where the CFB by-passed 1-loss CCG losers are going to be disappointed. In both those cases, there were strong resume support for leaving those two teams out of the playoff. Unfortunately not the case for us this year v Notre Dame.

1) ND will have the better overall resume
2) ND will have the better collection of top wins
3) ND will be a conf runner-up
4) ND will have superior power numbers
5) With no cross-conference games, the traditional SEC edge will not be in evidence this year.

A win over BYU in the final game of the season flips every single one of the above metrics into the Ags favor except the conference runner-up.

Has there been any actual speculation from decision-makers that we would get a game against BYU or is that just a TexAgs pipe dream? Seems unlikely especially now with the Ole Miss game probably having to be played on 12/19. Why would they give us/BYU that opportunity when they have never done that in the past regardless of the unprecedented circumstances under which we are playing this season?

hunter2012 said:

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SinKiller said:

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There is ZERO chance that a one loss A&M gets in over a one loss Notre Dame team.

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Your missing the point, a conference championship loser is not making the playoff according to past committee rulings. It does not matter if it's Alabama with a loss to Florida or Notre Dame with a loss to Clemson.

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You're missing the point, ND sells and is a national draw. All things being equal, no chance.

This whole conversation is irrelevant if we can't get another freaking game in.

These Covid policies suck

Might have been my post. I really do feel confident we're in if we win out but i won't be upset if we don't make it.

SinKiller said:

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hunter2012 said:

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SinKiller said:

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There is ZERO chance that a one loss A&M gets in over a one loss Notre Dame team.

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Your missing the point, a conference championship loser is not making the playoff according to past committee rulings. It does not matter if it's Alabama with a loss to Florida or Notre Dame with a loss to Clemson.

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You're missing the point, ND sells and is a national draw. All things being equal, no chance.

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You said no chance. If ND gets beat by 20+ in the ACC championship, they will be looked at as only beating Clemson because Lawrence was out and will not get in. There is no way ND gets in fresh off a season-ending blow out loss. I am not saying I think this will happen, but it is a plausible scenario where a 1 loss a&m gets in over a 1 loss ND. Your premise of there is zero chance is wrong.

If Bama is 10-0 and loses to 9-1 FL in SEC CG I can guarantee you Bama will make the CFP as #4 at 10-1 along with FL, A&M would be odd-man out. A&M at 9-1 would make CFP ahead of a 9-2 FL team with a H2H win over FL.

There are multiple ND/Clemson scenarios, but just focusing on the SEC, the above would hold.

It will not matter though, Bama will win every game the rest of the season by 20+.

PS - Don't think aTm finishes 9-1, love our team and what Jimbo is building, but I don't see 9-1, 7-3 or 8-2 more likely.

Jarrin' Jay said:

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If Bama is 10-0 and loses to 9-1 FL in SEC CG I can guarantee you Bama will make the CFP as #4 at 10-1 along with FL, A&M would be odd-man out. A&M at 9-1 would make CFP ahead of a 9-2 FL team with a H2H win over FL.

There are multiple ND/Clemson scenarios, but just focusing on the SEC, the above would hold.

It will not matter though, Bama will win every game the rest of the season by 20+.

PS - Don't think aTm finishes 9-1, love our team and what Jimbo is building, but I don't see 9-1, 7-3 or 8-2 more likely.

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Not looking for an argument I am just genuinely curious why you think this. Is this BAS or do you have football reasons why we don't match up well with our remaining opponents?

SinKiller said:

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There is ZERO chance that a one loss A&M gets in over a one loss Notre Dame team.

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If someone truly believes a one loss A&M team gets in over a one loss Notre Dame team... well, welcome to college football. You obviously have not followed the sport very long

We've already discussed this. There were only 2 teams that went into their CCG undefeated and lost. Both from the B1Gw. Neither was especially punished for the loss. They just did not do enough to impress the committee. One lost out to conference champ ou. The other lost out to '17 Bama, which had been beating the fire out of people until losing to Auburn.

I think it is a huge assumption that the committee extra-punishes a CCG loss.

And it's not hard to shift things around so that Clemson and ND do not meet in the semi. Make ND play Bama. They would be 14 point dogs. Make Clemson play tO$U, they would be 3 pt dogs. The odds of a Clemson/ND game 3 in the final would be less than 10%.

Jarrin' Jay said:

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If Bama is 10-0 and loses to 9-1 FL in SEC CG I can guarantee you Bama will make the CFP as #4 at 10-1 along with FL, A&M would be odd-man out. A&M at 9-1 would make CFP ahead of a 9-2 FL team with a H2H win over FL.

There are multiple ND/Clemson scenarios, but just focusing on the SEC, the above would hold.

It will not matter though, Bama will win every game the rest of the season by 20+.

PS - Don't think aTm finishes 9-1, love our team and what Jimbo is building, but I don't see 9-1, 7-3 or 8-2 more likely.

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Disagree. A&M's schedule was arguably more difficult than Bama's. We beat UF so we should get a shot over Bama if they lose to UF in the SECCG...

But we know that will never happen so let's stop playing-out this scenario. UF is a one-dimensional offense and has an average passing D at best. Bama's pass rush will shut them down.

Mac Jones + Waddle/Devonta/Waddle >>>> Kyle Trask + Pitts.

You guys better prepare for the Cotton Bowl vs.another big fail team again

it is quaint that you think one loss teams named Bama,Notre Dame, & Ohio,State are just like one loss teams with lesser name recognition.

SEC Champs said:

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Jarrin' Jay said:

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If Bama is 10-0 and loses to 9-1 FL in SEC CG I can guarantee you Bama will make the CFP as #4 at 10-1 along with FL, A&M would be odd-man out. A&M at 9-1 would make CFP ahead of a 9-2 FL team with a H2H win over FL.

There are multiple ND/Clemson scenarios, but just focusing on the SEC, the above would hold.

It will not matter though, Bama will win every game the rest of the season by 20+.

PS - Don't think aTm finishes 9-1, love our team and what Jimbo is building, but I don't see 9-1, 7-3 or 8-2 more likely.

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Disagree. A&M's schedule was arguably more difficult than Bama's. We beat UF so we should get a shot over Bama if they lose to UF in the SECCG...

But we know that will never happen so let's stop playing-out this scenario. UF is a one-dimensional offense and has an average passing D at best. Bama's pass rush will shut them down.

Mac Jones + Waddle/Devonta/Waddle >>>> Kyle Trask + Pitts.

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You do know Waddle is out for the season, right?

Just to throw another wrench into the playoff plans.

What if Indiana were to call Ohio State this week and say that due to Covid, they can't play their game, and both win out the remainder of the season.

Indiana would end up 7-0, Ohio State 6-0, so not only is the question there of who goes to the Big Ten Championship game, but both teams could end up undefeated.

The same could happen on the West side as undefeated Wisconsin is to play undefeated Northwestern this weekend. If they cancel the game, both could still be undefeated, but in that case Northwestern has more games played and seems like the logical candidate to go the Big Ten CCG.

I would say it is unlikely that one or both of these games gets cancelled, but after a week with plenty of game cancellations, it isn't crazy.

The Big Ten could end up with 2 or 3 undefeated teams.

TX_Aggie37 said:

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Jarrin' Jay said:

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If Bama is 10-0 and loses to 9-1 FL in SEC CG I can guarantee you Bama will make the CFP as #4 at 10-1 along with FL, A&M would be odd-man out. A&M at 9-1 would make CFP ahead of a 9-2 FL team with a H2H win over FL.



There are multiple ND/Clemson scenarios, but just focusing on the SEC, the above would hold.

It will not matter though, Bama will win every game the rest of the season by 20+.

PS - Don't think aTm finishes 9-1, love our team and what Jimbo is building, but I don't see 9-1, 7-3 or 8-2 more likely.

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Not looking for an argument I am just genuinely curious why you think this. Is this BAS or do you have football reasons why we don't match up well with our remaining opponents?

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LSU, Tennessee, Auburn, and yeah, Ole Miss, will be tough games for the Ags. Ole Miss mainly because they can score and our secondary will have issues.

Yes, we beat Florida when they fumbled late. It's not like that was a mauling. Outside of that, we really don't have a resume. Take away Florida, manhandled at Bama and beat four horrible teams.

Don't get too carried away with that #5, that's as much from circumstance and default as much as anything else.

In the end, the Ags have played 1 maybe 2 really good teams. They weren't in one and won the other late. Outside of that, didn't beat anyone that anyone else in the top 40 probably wouldn't have.

Quote:

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First, so I dont bury the lead:

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Lede.

Not a big deal, just a quick tip on an obscure detail. Carry on.

Quote:

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We've already discussed this. There were only 2 teams that went into their CCG undefeated and lost. Both from the B1Gw. Neither was especially punished for the loss. They just did not do enough to impress the committee. One lost out to conference champ ou. The other lost out to '17 Bama, which had been beating the fire out of people until losing to Auburn.

I think it is a huge assumption that the committee extra-punishes a CCG loss.

And it's not hard to shift things around so that Clemson and ND do not meet in the semi. Make ND play Bama. They would be 14 point dogs. Make Clemson play tO$U, they would be 3 pt dogs. The odds of a Clemson/ND game 3 in the final would be less than 10%.

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This

Those undefeated ccg losers didn't have impressive resumes

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Disagree. A&M's schedule was arguably more difficult than Bama's. We beat UF so we should get a shot over Bama if they lose to UF in the SECCG...

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But they would also have a 28 point win over a top 5 A&M which is also a head to head win

Bama would deserve it over us that's why we need to root for bama in that game

Gramercy Riffs said:

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Quote:

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First, so I dont bury the lead:

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Lede.

Not a big deal, just a quick tip on an obscure detail. Carry on.

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wow! i'm an educated man with decent writing skills, and I never knew that. i now know that "lede" means the same as "lead" as I used it, but that folks in the journalism world use the alternate spelling to avoid potential confusion with the metal "lead" pronounced "led".

thanks for the enlightenment!

That's fine but I would counter with Tennessee has gotten beat by at least two possessions 4 games in a row. Most recently by an Arkansas team that A&M handled with relative ease. Tennessee is bad.

LSU looks TERRIBLE. Sure they played Vandy better than we did, and they beat up on what is turning out to be a terrible SC team. And you can say they always play well against A&M too if you want. But LSU is a bad football team right now and losing that game would be a massive upset and a total let-down.

Ole Miss has put up very good offensive numbers the last 2 games against 2 very bad football teams. At the end of the day they are a 3-4 team with a horrible defense. That is absolutely a game we should win by 2+ possessions if we get any sort of help from the defense at all.

Depending on which Auburn team we get, that is the only game that I would not be surprised to see us struggle in. That Looney Tune offense and an adequate game throwing the ball by Nix could give us fits.

To me it is just as likely we finish 9-1 as it is 8-2. 7-3 would be a major let-down. The style of football we are playing and the way we are winning games is repeatable if we stay healthy. We've done it enough games in a row now that I believe we should win every game left on our schedule.

50-7