Saban is the GOAT but we have a good one in Jimbo. I am not even thinking we can consistently beat Alabama, but I do think we can be in the top 5 and be in the playoffs. Maybe with some luck and Bama having a bad day, we may even win.

To do that we have a coach who can manage this. Check.

Next is to get the actual components who do things on the field. Players. That means recruiting.

My theory is we need to consistently get players of this quality:

(5 * players + 4* players) / (3* players) >= 3.00

Once we do this over many cycles, we will see results. Yes, JFF was a 3 star but he was a massive outlier and probably no coach but Sherm saw his potential.

Look at the chart from 247 below for 2020.

Applying the formula above:

Clemson: 15/5 = 3.00
Alabama: 18/4 = 4.50
LSU: 16/5 = 3.2
Texas: 16/4 = 4.00

Our Score?
A&M: 9/9 = 1.00

We think recruiting is going great, but we are actually far behind the others including Texas. Texas this year is far ahead at 4.00.

A&M (2019): 1.45
A&M (2018): 1.30
A&M (2017): 0.40
A&M (2016): 0.62

Overall we are trending in the right direction and this year is not yet over, but we have some distance to cover. I'll post the final score when we get to NSD.


Jimbo better hurry up and do something.



Until we get our recruiting score up to 3.00 and consistently, we cannot get into the playoffs reliably.

FAT SEXY said:

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Still a long way to go until NSD..

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True, but keep track of the recruiting score based on the formula above. If we crack 3.00 by NSD we are with the big boys. Else another year of "wait till next year" for us.

There is merit to the idea, but teams like Wisconsin give another perspective, 2/15.

83Aggie said:

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There is merit to the idea, but teams like Wisconsin give another perspective, 2/15.

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Yes, there may be exceptions, but in statistics you are looking to generalize based on the data we have so you can make predictions with as much reliability as possible.

I have not looked into Wisc in detail, there may be other factors that have contributed to their success. Wisconsin last year was not very good.

My point is we need to fix recruiting if we expect to get into the playoffs. That happens only if we recruit close to the guys who get in consistently rather than look for the exceptions.

We are recruiting well behind Bama and LSU. The sips also, although we don't hav to play them.

The 2020 is not what we need to compete In the SEC West.

FAT SEXY said:

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Still a long way to go until NSD..

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No. Only two months. And the top talent is already locked in.

We need an OL coach with NFL credentials that can convince players he can get them into the League ( similar to what Sleepy did) 3-4 star OL guys that are legit NFL prospects is the first step to turning it around or much better bagmen

FAT SEXY said:

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AngryAG said:

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FAT SEXY said:

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Still a long way to go until NSD..

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No. Only two months. And the top talent is already locked in.

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February is only 2 months away

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I guess you don't follow college football these days.

Signing day this year is December 18. That is two two months away.

FAT SEXY said:

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You can make up for mild talent deficiencies with good development and convincing enough guys to stay a full 4 years.

Experienced upperclassmen can do wonders for a program.

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That is the truth.

If anyone disagrees look at how clemson was recruiting in the years leading up to their natty.

Thanks Miller58 for this insight we have heard every year for the past 20 years!

FAT SEXY said:

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AngryAG said:

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FAT SEXY said:

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Still a long way to go until NSD..

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No. Only two months. And the top talent is already locked in.

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February is only 2 months away

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Most kids sign in December now.

Many times the Stars are bent towards older players, or players who develop early.

Patterson at TCU makes a living by recruiting 3Star player that he can keep 4 years.

Saban has made a living getting players who would be 2nd Round in the NFL draft to stay that extra year to become a 1st Rounder.

Clemson had a ton of guys stay.

#4 Clelin Ferrell (DE): RS Jr <- Projected 8th pick as a RS So
#13 Christian Wilkins (DT): SR <- Projected 2nd Rd as Jr.
#17 Dexter Lawrence (DT): Jr

You don't win National Championships by recruiting great HS players. You win Championships by having Future NFL players (1st and 2nd Rounders) decide to remain in college, instead of going into the draft.

Count me how many players stayed on those teams... and then look at their record. I would take the #8 pick in the NFL draft over some high school 5Star, everyday.

The vast majority of your class has to be committed by the end of August. By now, focus has shifted to the 2021 class.

You are assuming that star ratings have inherent meaning and are a predictable indicator of overall talent. This is not the case.

As has been illustrated some kids get stars just because of who is recruiting them.

Why don't we just let Jimbo go after players that he feels will excel within his system?

Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

amercer said:

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Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

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Are you sure this was the strategy? I see a ten-year, high-value, fully guaranteed hire as a long-term commitment so self-loathing fools can't do anything except self-loathe.

Present company excluded of course.

amercer said:

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Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

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A&M will never get "top 5" classes every year no matter who the coach is.

AngryAG said:

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FAT SEXY said:

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AngryAG said:

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FAT SEXY said:

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Still a long way to go until NSD..

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No. Only two months. And the top talent is already locked in.

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February is only 2 months away

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I guess you don't follow college football these days.

Signing day this year is December 18. That is two two months away.

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We are in on a lot of kids that could put us in the 5-10 range. We just signed the composite #3 class. You can win titles with that level.

Development and enthusiasm and work ethic beat measuresables all day. Guys that try harder and give more effort always win. All other things being equal.

I'm not sure how we can expect our recruiting to improve or stay on an upward trend if we aren't more competitive on the field. I think most of this "talent deficit" talk is just excuse making. We may not have the talent to win it all but we should be way better than the 6-6 we're headed for.

greg.w.h said:

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amercer said:

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Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

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Are you sure this was the strategy? I see a ten-year, high-value, fully guaranteed hire as a long-term commitment so self-loathing fools can't do anything except self-loathe.

Present company excluded of course.

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I see us eating a 45 million dollar buyout in a couple of years if things don't turn around quick, but then I'm not any good at predicting the future. So maybe this time is the time it works out for us.

1876er said:

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amercer said:

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Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

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A&M will never get "top 5" classes every year no matter who the coach is.

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Then we should stop *****ing when we lose to all the top 10 teams on our schedule

Sterling82 said:

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I'm not sure how we can expect our recruiting to improve or stay on an upward trend if we aren't more competitive on the field. I think most of this "talent deficit" talk is just excuse making. We may not have the talent to win it all but we should be way better than the 6-6 we're headed for.

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Perhaps make that argument once we actually go 6-6?

Talent deficit vs. Clemson, Bama, and LSU is a real thing.

vs. the rest of our schedule? not so much.

OP's metric is not bad. It's simple, intuitive, and probably more sensitive around the threshold of total team talent for "elite" on-the-field results (conference championships, CFP berths, etc.). The evaluation is a little anecdotal (e.g. what constitutes a "top" program) and one-sided (i.e. does a low value for that metric reliably predict failure?). At the least, a metric for program success (on-the-field results) needs to be created.

But the real problem is that it doesn't take time into account, and thus does not address the oft-repeated "correlation =/= causation" rebuttal. Specifically, do the "top" programs cross the talent threshold first, or do they cross the program success threshold first? Mack Brown and Bob Stoops in the 2000s are great examples of the respective ends of this continuum. Another way to look at this question is as the construction of a latent variable that predicts program success, changes much slower than talent level, but heavily influences talent level. (Some of us might call this "program culture" or "elite coaching" or, douchily, "the X factor.")

IMO answering this question would require metrics for talent & on-the-field results that are still fairly sensitive below the "elite" thresholds, so that they can capture the transition from sub-elite to elite, in order to determine which threshold was crossed first. Whether or not OP's talent level metric meets this requirement would be seen clearly in an analysis vs. time talent level vs. program success.

This is good enough to go 8-4 or better every season.

1876er said:

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amercer said:

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Yeah, most of the money we threw at Jimbo was to get us top 5 classes every year. If we don't improve quick, it's 75 million down the drain

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A&M will never get "top 5" classes every year no matter who the coach is.

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Great...another legendary board bleeder with an informative post...

It would be interesting to look at Clemson's recruiting over the past 10-15 years. They are one of the few non-historically great programs that has managed to achieve blue blood status.

We (Clemson) have not recruited like Bama or even FSU for that matter. Our rankings aren't near as high as others because we take small classes and develop guys. We've been around Top 10 but this year will be the first time we've finished #1.

DABO is also big on 2-star or even 0-star guys like Hunter Renfrow because they bring certain characteristics hard work, dedication, smarts on the field. Our coaches have been on record as saying that having all 5-star guys isn't good. Too many attitudes and baggage. They'd rather have low maintenance, hard worker 4-star than a prima Donna 5-star guy.

Are you miller58?

DallasAg 94 said:

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Many times the Stars are bent towards older players, or players who develop early.

Patterson at TCU makes a living by recruiting 3Star player that he can keep 4 years.

Saban has made a living getting players who would be 2nd Round in the NFL draft to stay that extra year to become a 1st Rounder.

Clemson had a ton of guys stay.

#4 Clelin Ferrell (DE): RS Jr <- Projected 8th pick as a RS So
#13 Christian Wilkins (DT): SR <- Projected 2nd Rd as Jr.
#17 Dexter Lawrence (DT): Jr

You don't win National Championships by recruiting great HS players. You win Championships by having Future NFL players (1st and 2nd Rounders) decide to remain in college, instead of going into the draft.

Count me how many players stayed on those teams... and then look at their record. I would take the #8 pick in the NFL draft over some high school 5Star, everyday.

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Team would be so much different if Sternberger Williams and McCoy and Dodson had not forgoe their senior season

Your formula is far too exaggerated. Your numbers make it seem like Texas is recruiting four times better than us, which just isn't true. A single player getting reclassified from three to four stars raises our score by 25%. A better score would be a percentage of high star recruits to total recruits. We are definitely lagging behind, but it's not the ridiculous superlative you've come up with.

We need a team of juniors and seniors. We get experience out there and we'll win. Of course sprinkle in a great underclassman or two but overall we need experience. Experience wins, no one is winning anything with a bunch of underclassmen playing most of the snaps.