Thanks for putting this together

I hope we are not counting on FG's to win this game

Eerily close to the Vegas spread.

Thanks!

tehmackdaddy said:

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Eerily close to the Vegas spread.

Thanks!

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It's almost like they both use a points per yard model.

That said, I can't see either team scoring 20, much less 24.

So tamu -2 ...ssa must work for Vegas.

Aggies2009 said:

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It's almost like they both use a points per yard model.

That said, I can't see either team scoring 20, much less 24.

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Interestingly, the models predict a more efficient scoring offense versus LSU than versus Auburn.

Thanks for the Spreadsheet. It serves to bolster my gut feel that these 2 teams are very evenly matched overall.

I will say this, I would take the under all day long on 48 pts scored tho. I could easily see it being under 40.

I think the game will be decided by turnovers.

Burrow = 200 yards game
9 td's
4 INT's
56%

Mond = 240 yards game (and can run)
17 td's
8 INT's
59%


Advantage - Ags

I think this comes down to A&M's run defense. I don't think LSU can win this game through the air, but they get the play action going due to being able to run the ball, they can pull away.

I also noticed the LSU scoring diff by quarter. They tend to score and get up early and clamp down on teams. If A&M can keep it close, I can actually see the A&M offense wearing down LSU a bit and getting the win.

Spreadsheet Ag for the win!!!....thanks for the work.

Emilio Fantastico said:

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Leander - Ag said:

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Burrow = 200 yards game
9 td's
4 INT's
56%

Mond = 240 yards game (and can run)
17 td's
8 INT's
59%


Advantage - Ags

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Umm, LSU secondary >>>>>>>>>> Ags secondary
Advantage LSU

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This. Burrow will enter the Heisman discussion after another mediocre QB torches our **** secondary again

This is doing nothing to help me focus on anything but Saturday.

Thank you for that. Honestly.

Double play the under

Double play LSU

What the stats don't show is that LSU is stronger and more physical.

I'd love love to see the Ags Cap the season with a big win, but LSU 20-13

A lot of data - did you go back and run the spreadsheet for the previous games to see how accurate it is?
Also, where is the aggieball stat where we give up a huge play on the first or second play of the game to spot points? (e.g. throw an interception on the first play, or give up 75 yd run/pass play)

People have bumped the threads, this has been pretty accurate. I wouldn't bet the farm though.

Thanks for doing this!

For the ones I've done this year I am 5 for 5 straight up...

vs UK: 25-23; 25-24 Ags-W (actual 20-14 Ags-W) .. off by about 14 points cumulative
at SCAR: 29-21; 28-24 Ags-W (actual 26-23 Ags-W) .. of by about 4 points cumulative
at MSST: 17-22; 18-23 Ags-L (actual 13-28 Ags-L) .. off by about 10 pts cumulative (that last run by Fitzgerald, uggghhhh)
at AUB: 18-26; 19-25 Ags-L (actual 24-28 Ags-L) .. off by about 8 pts cumulative
vs MS: 37-23; 38-23 Ags-W (actual 38-24 Ags-W) .. off by only 1-2 pts cumulative

In the past, under Sumlin, the swings were big and wide, and I did decently, but it was not nearly so close to the mark. This year under Jimbo, my formulas seem to have dialed probably due to more consistency by the team - making it a tad easier to predict.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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Texas A&M Aggies vs LSU Tigers

(vs FBS Stats Only)

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I don't get why you statisticians think your going to win the game with stats. IT'S THE SCOREBOARD, THE SCOREBOARD, AT THE END OIF THE GAME, THE DAMNED SCOREBOARD!!!

I guess you're right. No one ever has ever shown any form of benefit using statistics and prior history/performance to predict an outcome.

Ever.

Calm down, old man

SpreadsheetAg said:

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For the ones I've done this year I am 5 for 5 straight up...

vs UK: 25-23; 25-24 Ags-W (actual 20-14 Ags-W) .. off by about 14 points cumulative
at SCAR: 29-21; 28-24 Ags-W (actual 26-23 Ags-W) .. of by about 4 points cumulative
at MSST: 17-22; 18-23 Ags-L (actual 13-28 Ags-L) .. off by about 10 pts cumulative (that last run by Fitzgerald, uggghhhh)
at AUB: 18-26; 19-25 Ags-L (actual 24-28 Ags-L) .. off by about 8 pts cumulative
vs MS: 37-23; 38-23 Ags-W (actual 38-24 Ags-W) .. off by only 1-2 pts cumulative

In the past, under Sumlin, the swings were big and wide, and I did decently, but it was not nearly so close to the mark. This year under Jimbo, my formulas seem to have dialed probably due to more consistency by the team - making it a tad easier to predict.

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great work as usual, SSA. out of curiosity what sort of modeling do you use? some type of regression?

Quote:

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I don't get why you statisticians think your going to win the game with stats. IT'S THE SCOREBOARD, THE SCOREBOARD, AT THE END OIF THE GAME, THE DAMNED SCOREBOARD!!!

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aeon-ag said:

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SpreadsheetAg said:

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Texas A&M Aggies vs LSU Tigers

(vs FBS Stats Only)

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I don't get why you statisticians think your going to win the game with stats. IT'S THE SCOREBOARD, THE SCOREBOARD, AT THE END OIF THE GAME, THE DAMNED SCOREBOARD!!!

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*you're

Spreadsheet , have you checked how you track v. sagarin?

halfastros81 said:

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Spreadsheet , have you checked how you track v. sagarin?

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are you positive they are not one in the same?

Pppppffffftttttttttt

SpreadsheetAg said:

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Pppppffffftttttttttt

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what modeling are you using, again?

Well....it was close.

You got that going for you.

Spot on SSA!!!!

Hope you all bet the over!