Stats:
MSU Offense vs Ag Defense
Runs: 5.6 to 3.8 allowed. Advantage them. Average is around 4/carry.
Passes: 9.4 to 6.3. Slight advantage to them. Average is around 7/attempt (not counting sacks)
3rd: 41% to 34%. Advantage Ags. Average is around 42%
Pass Pro: allowed 7 sacks, Ags have 17. Advantage Ags.
Aggie Offense vs MSU Defense
Runs: 6.1 to 2.5. Slight advantage Ags.
Pass: 9.4 to 7.6. Advantage Ags
3rd: 54% to 26%. Draw.
Pass Pro: allowed 4 sacks, they have 14. Advantage Ags.
Other Stats, they are +2 in turnovers, we are -2. Advantage them.
We have been penalized 33 times in 5 games, they have 20 in 4. Advantage them.
They have home-field advantage and are coming off a bye-week. Advantage them. They have played L$U and 3 bad teams. They struggled against UAB. We have played 3 good programs and 2 bad ones. None of our wins appear as good as L$U.
One other point. L$U just fired its QB. Had they started the backup, they probably would have won.
I would say we have the advantage statistically, but the bye is huge. The line moving makes me nervous.