Interesting discussion. Growing up in Tallahassee, I'd always been told the Gators blackballed FSU and Miami from SEC invitations. Heck, it took an act of the state legislature to get Florida to play FSU.
When FSU joined the ACC, the sportswriters called it a brilliant move financially because FSU could tap into the ACC basketball financial pot while still doing well in football on their own. I think they like playing in the ACC and may not take an SEC invite even if it was offered.
My guess is South Carolina blackballs Clemson, Kentucky blackballs Louisville, and Georgia blackballs Georgia Tech like everyone's discussed. UNC won't leave the ACC. That leaves UVa, Virginia Tech, and Miami.
Florida would probably blackball Miami, but even if they don't, they're less attractive than a Virginia school since the Gators bring most of the Florida market, at least as far as the the networks are concerned.
The state of Virginia's the prize because it brings the Metro DC market and maybe even penetration into Raleigh/Durham (don't really know). Of the two schools, Virginia Tech's always seemed like a better fit. UVa's administration is likely look down on the SEC academically and want to avoid association (something that may be going on with the A&M administration, for that matter) because there's not enough AAU members, etc.
Back when the Big XII was breaking up, Va Tech was the school mentioned to balance A&M. One of my employees is a Hokie, from a Hokie family and claimed the Hokie nation, or whatever they are, all thought it was a done deal for what that's worth.
It simply makes sense. Virginia Tech fits the conference. It brings a major market the SEC doesn't have. None of the current SEC member schools hate the Hokies enough to blackball them.
We look at the SEC and think OU would be a great addition due to the competition factor. Competition may be second to television. If so, OU may not be as high on the SEC's list as Missouri. Missouri is a border state that brings the St Louis and Kansas City markets. Who balances Missouri in the east? Maybe West Virginia?
As much as I like the speculation game, I'm ready to the pencil necks to call the shot. My guess is by year's end. Take a few months, get things in order, see how things shape up, work a few key legislators (remember they don't meet again until 2013 unless Perry calls a special session), and act far enough ahead of the legislative session that all of the dominoes will fall and this will be a fait accompli before the legislature can screw things up.