Whistling,
Fran was a house of cards in my opinion. In fact, back when he was hired I made a post essentially saying what I'm about to say here. (I can't remember if I made the post on TexAgs or on some Baylor board, but either way, it's out there somewhere if someone wants to search for it.)
First, let's look at his New Mexico stint, his first turnaround gig. Fran steps in 1992 and promptly goes 24-32 in his first five years. That may have been a technical improvement over Sheppard's (prior coach) years, but it wasn't by much and was hardly anything to write home about. Then, in 1996 something happened. The WAC started to change. This was the year that the WAC expanded to 16. In that 1996 year, Tulsa, TCU, Rice, and SMU all were added to New Mexico's schedule for the 1996 and 1997 seasons. Behind an unbelievably weak non-conference slate which consisted of a D1AA team, New Mexico State, and (at the time, an emerging D1A independent) UCF, New Mexico found a way to 6 wins. The three conference wins were over TCU (4-7), Tulsa (4-7), and UTEP (2-9).
With a load of returning starters and a SOS of nearly triple digits (#97), the Lobos notched 9 wins over teams that would go a combined 32-58 in 1997. They lost in their bowl game to a 6-5 Arizona team.
Fran promptly jumped to TCU after that year. He began coaching the Frogs in 1998 with a very talented sophomore RB named LaDanian Tomlinson, who was already a part of the Horned Frog program.
Something unique should be noted here. In 1998, the first year that Fran took over the Frogs, the 16 team WAC rotated their quadrants. There had been 4 quadrants of 4 teams each. TCU, Rice, SMU, and Tulsa were in the most easterly quadrant, which had paired them up with New Mexico, BYU, Utah, and UTEP in the 1996 and 1997 seasons. With the rotation for the 1998 season (and what would’ve been the 1999 season), TCU traded those four teams for UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, and Air Force, all of whom were considerably weaker. For the 1999 season, the current members of the MWC (sans-TCU) all jumped to their own league (Mountain West) out of frustration with the craziness of the WAC (and what they perceived was dilution of the league). The WAC did not expand to replace those 8 teams, so the WAC for 1999-2000 ended up being:
Fresno State
Hawaii
Rice
SMU
Tulsa
San Jose State
Nevada (added in 2000)
UTEP
TCU
The weaknesses of that schedule (the rotation in 1998 and the post-breakup WAC in 1999 and 2000) was evident and can be backed up by the W/L records of TCU’s opponents in 98-00. In that three year span, TCU’s opponents were a combined 184-244, including 119-171 in 1999 and 2000 when TCU’s SOS figures were over 100 (#105 in 1999 and #101 in 2000). The weak schedule, combined with having the best RB in the entire country (which Fran didn’t even recruit, but inherited), gave Fran the perfect storm to win at TCU. Even TCU was disgusted by the weakness of the WAC and jumped to CUSA for the 2001 season.
As a side note, I would also point out that Gary Patterson was Fran’s DC at New Mexico during his two best years there (1996 and 1997) and followed him to TCU where Patterson has had enormous success.
Following the amazing 2000 year for the Frogs, Fran jumped to Alabama. Fran is always credited with a turnaround at Alabama for a reason I’ve yet to figure. In 1999, the Tide won the SEC-West and lost to Michigan by 1 point in the Orange Bowl. That was far from a program on life support. If I recall correctly, they had a very talented recruiting class thanks to the Orange Bowl appearance the year before. While they did have a 3-8 overall record in 2000, the Tide had 3 losses by less than a TD and 6 losses by 10 or less. And again, they were one year removed from a BCS bowl and an appearance in the SEC championship game when Fran took over.
Fran’s record in his two years at Bama was 17-8, pretty good. But considering most of his own recruits never saw the field and given the competitiveness and success of the program before his arrival, it’s a huge question of whether or not that was really a “rebuilding situation.” More importantly, the Alabama teams in the few years after his departure suffered talent wise. Fran had left the cupboard bare.
In the end, I’m not overly impressed with any of those rebuilding jobs.
New Mexico was probably the best but considering he went to one bowl game in those 7 years and that 9-4 bowl team was built on a weak schedule, I’m not sure whether it was really turned around or UNM’s strength was simply overinflated that year.
At TCU, he built up an incredible W/L record against some of the most horrid SOS figures in the nation and with the nation’s best RB which he did not recruit.
And at Alabama, who had plenty of talent when he arrived and was one year removed from a BCS bowl, he did good, at best, although recruiting was a problem after he left.
We all remember that he then immediately jumped for BCS and the rest is history. His W/L records were impressive and there was tons of fanfare about his hiring, but it’s my opinion that Fran was always a house of cards, jumping at the first chance for a new gig because the previous one was never a true rebuild, but a combination of circumstanced in which any decent coach could’ve succeeded.