Worst US Intelligence Failure

9,364 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by M1Buckeye
Spore Ag
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A few come to mind like Pearl Harbor, Battle of the Bulge, Tet Offensive.
P.H. Dexippus
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AG
The 2008 election? j/k...kinda

9/11
Robert Hanssen
BQ_90
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AG
Little Big Horn on the micro scale
74OA
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Collapse of the Soviet Union. Right up to the end, our intelligence services were all sure Russia would never let the USSR's satellite republics go peacefully.
BQ08
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Chinese entry into the Korean War would be up there for sure.
IDAGG
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Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

The 2008 election? j/k...kinda

9/11
Robert Hanssen
Walker spy ring as well. I believe I read somewhere that someone high up in our defense department stated that for a while the Russians had "war winning" information from those traitors, especially WRT the Navy.
JoeAggie1010
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BQ08 said:

Chinese entry into the Korean War would be up there for sure.
Would that occasion be more of a MacArthur failure than an intelligence failure?
Macarthur
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JoeAggie1010 said:

BQ08 said:

Chinese entry into the Korean War would be up there for sure.
Would that occasion be more of a MacArthur failure than an intelligence failure?
Bite your tongue.
Bighunter43
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What about the JFK Assassination? Then again, maybe it wasn't...lol
aalan94
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Quote:

Quote:

BQ08 said:

Chinese entry into the Korean War would be up there for sure.

Would that occasion be more of a MacArthur failure than an intelligence failure?
BQ is right on. A runner up for 2nd Place would be having 9 hours warning that the Japanese Empire had launched a surprise attack at Pearl Harbor and would probably attack the Philippines the very next day, and doing nothing to prepare for it. Then promptly getting shellacked by the Japanese right on schedule.

A nickel for the first person who guesses the common theme between these two examples. Hint: Starts with Mac and is a synonym for "arrogant *******."
JABQ04
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Battle of the Bulge gets my vote. Surprised we knew absolutely nothing about a massive build up and then we got blindsided. We had indications that the Japanese were going to attack, just didn't know when or where exactly. And we knew the Chinese were in Korea, just chose to believe it was simply a handful when we clearly had captured members form at least three divisions.
CanyonAg77
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I thought it was Truman, not MacArthur, who took the decision to pursue the North Koreans across the 38th parallel, thus bringing the Chinese into the war?

Will also add that failing to notice Soviet spies in the Manhattan Project was pretty bad.
BQ78
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Lee's Lost Order before Antietam and it was a failure all around for America. Someone lost it for the Confederacy and McClellan did not take advantage of it as he should have.
Rabid Cougar
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BQ_90 said:

Little Big Horn on the micro scale
He knew exactly what was down there. He was just too big to fail in his own mind.
Rabid Cougar
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McClellan's Peninsula Campaign 1862.

Nothing between him and his 120,000 man army and Richmond but Prince John and 13,000 Confederates.

He was "fighting an army twice his size" but in reality no more than a 10th the size of his own.
tamc1956ag
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S
MacArthur
Spore Ag
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With McClellan it is more like failure in intelligence.
BQ78
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While we're at it Grant at Shiloh was a pretty bad failure.
aalan94
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Quote:

I thought it was Truman, not MacArthur, who took the decision to pursue the North Koreans across the 38th parallel, thus bringing the Chinese into the war?
Truman made the decision with MacArthur's recommendation. But that's not the intelligence failure. Determining enemy thought processes is the most difficult part of intelligence, because you're interpreting decisions that you don't have access to, as opposed to actual verifiable facts.

There was no actual evidence of Chinese movement into North Korea as we crossed the 38th Parallel, but over the next few weeks, that evidence started to come. MacArthur failed to see it, in fact, intentionally dismissed it, allowing his troops to walk into a trap.
aalan94
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I will add another huge one, based on the scale of the carnage that followed:

Stalin's inability to see Operation Barbarossa. The signs were numerous and obvious, but not only would Stalin not see them, he attacked those people who gave him the news, accusing them of lying to him as part of some conspiracy. What resulted was the greatest, most violent theater in the greatest war in history. If the Russian/German conflict was its own stand alone war, it would STILL be the largest in history.

Also, I should put a plug in for this book, which I read a long time ago. I recall that it was fairly good: https://www.amazon.com/Military-Intelligence-Blunders-John-Hughes-Wilson/dp/0786707151
aalan94
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Edit: I just noticed you said "U.S." Still, it's good to see the worst failures of other countries to put ours in perspective.
BQ_90
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Battle of Brooklyn Heights. Although the British not following up was probable even worse disaster or tactical blunder
Martin Cash
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Worst US Intelligence Failure?

Electing Nancy Pelousy Speaker.
Rabid Cougar
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BQ78 said:

While we're at it Grant at Shiloh was a pretty bad failure.
One of two times the Union Navy gunboats bailed the Union Army out of a very tight jam. The other was also in 1862 with McClellan at Malvern Hill.
BQ78
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Bailed out by the navy and Buell/Pope, how weak was that sauce?
Bighunter43
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BQ78 said:

Bailed out by the navy and Buell/Pope, how weak was that sauce?


I'd say some pretty bad Confederate blunders helped bail him out too!!
RGV AG
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Quote:

Stalin's inability to see Operation Barbarossa. The signs were numerous and obvious, but not only would Stalin not see them, he attacked those people who gave him the news, accusing them of lying to him as part of some conspiracy. What resulted was the greatest, most violent theater in the greatest war in history. If the Russian/German conflict was its own stand alone war, it would STILL be the largest in history.
Agree. Not only that, the GRU had Richard Sorge as an agent in Tokyo, he had proven very reliable and well connected, and he advised about the pending invasion several times and Stalin dismissed the info. Later, he provided the USSR with info verifying that the Japs would not attack the USSR, or at least it was not planned, and that enabled Stalin to free up large numbers of troops and materiel for the war against the Nazi's. This was a significant component of the Russian victory.

In all honesty either Stalin purposely ignored the signs/ingelligence or did so for some other reason. I have read a couple of books where there is speculation that Stalin believed that the Germans were much weaker than they were and over estimated (or had no notion of the true impact of the purges) the Soviet military capability and let the invasion happen.
Smokedraw01
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Hiring Fran.
BQ78
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User name checks out?
BQ78
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And Washington basically repeated that error at Brandywine, which is why he was just a mediocre field commander IMO.
YZ250
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I don't think the attack on the Philippines was an intelligence failure. All they were told was that Pearl Harbor was attacked and not when the attack would come. The air force launched planes and some were on patrol. Shortly after they landed the attack came.

I think the failure is that of the FDR administration sacrificing the Philippines. They and the governor general opposed MacArthur's build up of the Philippine army. They wouldn't even give them rifles that were less than 40 years old. Add to that the fact that the US Asiatic fleet fled the Philippines to wait for the US Pacific fleet to come west. Good luck defending an archipelago from a Japanese invasion without the help of a navy. The only reason MacArthur got out was because of pressure from Australia and one senator. Otherwise he was to die and be used as a rallying cry like "remember the Alamo".
CanyonAg77
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Quote:

I don't think the attack on the Philippines was an intelligence failure. All they were told was that Pearl Harbor was attacked and not when the attack would come. The air force launched planes and some were on patrol. Shortly after they landed the attack came.
As I recall, they didn't even have the planes dispersed, nor ready for combat, etc. The pilots should have been sleeping under the wings, and every gun position with a crew 24/7.
YZ250
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That is true that a lot of the planes were not dispersed. However, they did have pilots on alert and also had planes in the air on patrol. Squadrons were launched from Iba, Clark and Nichols. Their was confusion due to conflicting reports. Some were headed to Clark but were diverted back to Manila bay. Others were to patrol Bataan. A squadron from Nichols landed at Clark to refuel and were ready to launch but didn't receive orders to launch again.
CanyonAg77
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So I did the Google thing. Don't know if this is accurate, but it confirms a lot of your assertions. Basically, it says that MacA was paralyzed and indecisive, while his Air Commander wanted to go blow s**t up on Formosa, from whence the attack came.

Said commander put his planes in the air, but when MacA finally agreed to the raid, landed them all to refuel and arm.....just in time for the Japanese to show up.

His failure, I think, was to not have a CAP overhead, rotating in and out with fresh pilots, with the rest of the fighters on alert.

https://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/wwii/articles/macarthursfailures.aspx
cbr
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Lol, politicians creating a superpower out of China by selling access and secrets for 30 years. Hands down. Not close

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