What about WMD's in Iraq

CanyonAg77 said:

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I don't think the attack on the Philippines was an intelligence failure. All they were told was that Pearl Harbor was attacked and not when the attack would come. The air force launched planes and some were on patrol. Shortly after they landed the attack came.

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As I recall, they didn't even have the planes dispersed, nor ready for combat, etc. The pilots should have been sleeping under the wings, and every gun position with a crew 24/7.

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You're right that they didn't have proper dispersal positions, with sand bags, berms, etc. That's on MacArthur's air commander (whose name I forget) and ultimately MacArthur.

But the reason the planes were caught on the ground was a perfect example of the Clauswitzian concept of friction. In this case, almost literally, the fog of war. Or just fog.

The Philippine forces - including the aforementioned air commander - got the warning, and had their planes in the air, and thus safe, at the time they expected a Japanese strike launched from Formosa (Taiwan) at first light to arrive. The problem was - and where the friction comes in - is that said airfields were fogged in for several hours that morning. The fog burned off at just the right time for the strike to arrived over the Philippine airfields shortly after MacArthur's planes had to land for fuel reasons.

That said, MacArthur's ground defense plan was for crap. He had nowhere near the amount of troops or equipment required to defend the whole island group or even Luzon. However, had he properly prepared for the defense of Bataan, his forces there could have held out for much, much longer. Whether they could have held out long enough for help to arrive is open for debate, but not likely.

That's because, even without Pearl Harbor, the Pacific Fleet was not going to come rushing to defend the Philippines. First of all, it would have been extremely difficult to do, requiring them to fight through all those Japanese occupied island chains in the central Pacific - you know, the ones that it took 15 or so months to push through, starting in late 1943, when the Essex class carriers started arriving? And attempting this would have been exactly what the IJN wanted the USN to try - it would have allowed them to attrit the U.S. fleet all the way across the Pacific from those island bases, then smash it when it arrived in the Philippines worn out and without a secure base or lines of supply, much the way the IJN smashed the Russian fleet at Tsushima 35 years before.

The debate over the so-called 'Through Ticket" was one that went back and forth from the first iterations of War Plan Orange shortly after the end of the Spanish-American War. Ironically, the officer who, as Chief of Staff of the Army and head of the Joint Board, signed off on the last version of War Plan Orange adopted before the war, which abandoned the Through Ticket for the last time, was none other than General MacArthur.

When he became commander in the Philippines, MacArthur's massive ego kept him from working within this plan, because now he was in the PI, not DC, and whatever he was doing was the most important thing in the whole war, to hell with the plans.

Through Ticket? Don't guess I've heard of that.

And if you read one of my later posts, I found out that the planes were caught refueling, as you said.

Appreciate the input.

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That's because, even without Pearl Harbor, the Pacific Fleet was not going to come rushing to defend the Philippines. First of all, it would have been extremely difficult to do, requiring them to fight through all those Japanese occupied island chains in the central Pacific - you know, the ones that it took 15 or so months to push through, starting in late 1943, when the Essex class carriers started arriving? And attempting this would have been exactly what the IJN wanted the USN to try - it would have allowed them to attrit the U.S. fleet all the way across the Pacific from those island bases, then smash it when it arrived in the Philippines worn out and without a secure base or lines of supply, much the way the IJN smashed the Russian fleet at Tsushima 35 years before.

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They wouldn't have had to go across the central pacific. You could come from the SW pacific as the Japanese had not yet taken the Solomon Islands, New Guinea, Indonesia, Thailand etc... Remember, there were also the Dutch, British and Aussie navies in addition to our Asiatic fleet. We had been sending last minute reefnorcements so the Pacific wasn't shut down.

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That said, MacArthur's ground defense plan was for crap. He had nowhere near the amount of troops or equipment required to defend the whole island group or even Luzon. However, had he properly prepared for the defense of Bataan, his forces there could have held out for much, much longer. Whether they could have held out long enough for help to arrive is open for debate, but not likely.

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If you criticize MacArthur for not building up the defenses of the Bataan peninsula then in a similar vein you should also criticize the navy for failing to have a plan for the Philippines as well. Had they acted immediately instead of giving Japan time to extend their control over the pacific it might have shortened the war considerably.

The overall policy of Europe first was a huge factor. The Lend-Lease act gave aid to many nations but not the Philippines. I think this is a big failure of the overall war plan in my opinion.

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When he became commander in the Philippines, MacArthur's massive ego kept him from working within this plan, because now he was in the PI, not DC, and whatever he was doing was the most important thing in the whole war, to hell with the plans.

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To say he didn't want to operate within a plan because of his ego is a cop out in my opinion. To criticize someone for wanting to defend a nation and not just sacrifice it is wrong. That view point comes from looking at things only from the American perspective. MacArthur went to the Philippines at the request of Quezon and was named Field Marshall and wouldn't be recalled to active duty until 1941. He was working not just for American interests but for the Philippine people as well. He was having to work within the Philippine military budget which was very small. Additionally, the FDR administration, particularly Harold Ickes and the governor general, were opposing MacArthur. With these restrictions MacArthur came up with a 10 year plan for the build up of the Philippine army. He was in year 6 when the Japanese attacked.

I think it is funny that you say "whatever he was doing was the most important thing in the whole war" in a negative light. I would want a general like that. It means he wants to win.

China was making all kinds of noise to the press (since we had no communication with them) that they wouldn't stand for us crossing the 38th parallel. We ignored it then accused them of a sneaky attack. When I finally learned that, I mentioned it to my dad and he went back to look it up to prove me wrong and could not to his sorrow. He lost buddies from flight training there who were flying close air support so it was a painful subject. Also, Robert E Lee didn't have his cavalry at Gettysburg so didn't know what he was facing. J.E.B. Stuart was not where he was supposed to be.

Interesting how many of the examples here are failing to believe the intelligence we had.

Eliminatus said:

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Not sure if the scale matches "worst", but this current development in Afghanistan has to be one of the better examples of systemic intelligence failure in living history. Force estimates, mobility, motivation, integration, coordination....we have been horrendously off on all of that to date about the Taliban. You don't even have to read between the lines to see that we have been caught completely flatfooted as a nation but the developments in the past 48 hours.

Thoughts?

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I agree there is a fair amount of lapses in our intelligence about the Taliban. However, as one who did lots of the CIA's bidding in the early days of Nam, I think in Afghanistan it's a lot of they don't know what to do - or aren't prepared to do it. Sadly, it's a less bitter pill to say they fooled our intelligence than we don't know what to do, or even worse, we can't do anything about it.

Rabid Cougar said:

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BQ_90 said:

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Little Big Horn on the micro scale

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He knew exactly what was down there. He was just too big to fail in his own mind.

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- also Gen. George Crook failed to warn advancing US forces at the Little Big Horn that Lakota warriors had changed tactics. It was believed the Lakota would scatter in multiple directions once engaged. However, at the Battle of Rosebud eight days earlier, General George Crook's column discovered the Indians were willing to fight and take casualties. This info wasn't passed on to Gen. Terry (Custer)

agrams said:

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Tet.. bay of pigs... the WMD arguement was a black eye too.. but not sure how much of that is the intelligence agencies faults or misguided, self-imposed blind leadership.

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That one is on the politicians and not the intelligence community. Good friend was an inspector going into Iraq. Said in 2002 there were no WMD and the administration was committed to invasion in early 2003. He called it 100%.

oh this was no failure. biden knew kabul would immediately fall he just didnt care. remember he was against sending forces to kill bin laden

Agree. Valerie Plame was outed as a CIA agent as petty (and criminal) retribution after her husband, Joseph Wilson criticized the W administration for distorting facts. He had been sent by Cheney to find information about Iran purchasing weapons grade uranium from Niger and found no indication it had happened. Scooter Libby took the fall for the disclosure.

Old RV Ag said:

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agrams said:

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Tet.. bay of pigs... the WMD arguement was a black eye too.. but not sure how much of that is the intelligence agencies faults or misguided, self-imposed blind leadership.

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That one is on the politicians and not the intelligence community. Good friend was an inspector going into Iraq. Said in 2002 there were no WMD and the administration was committed to invasion in early 2003. He called it 100%.

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Yeah, but what did the intelligence community actually tell the administration? In my career I've noticed that the message gets changed a whole lot from the line level people by the time it gets relayed by the intelligence leadership to the politicians.

The intelligence community leadership are themselves bureaucrats and politicians and know how to keep their bread buttered. They tell the politicians what they think the politicians want to hear, and what the leadership believes will result in more funding and growth for their agency(ies).

In fact, didn't Bush actually challenge George Tenet on the sufficiency of the evidence of WMD and Tenet responded "Don't worry, it's a slam dunk"?

Crook was too busy trying to extricate himself to send messages to Custer or Terry,

BQ78 said:

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Crook was too busy trying to extricate himself to send messages to Custer or Terry,

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He was too busy fishing.

After Rosebud (June 17th), Crook had relocated his column to Goose Creek, about 70 mi south. His wounded were shipped out around the 20-21st. On June 22, Crook, Capt. Frederick Van Vliet, Capt. Andy Burt and others went on a fishing trip on Tepee Creek. He did send a report of the battle to Gen. Sheridan in Chicago. The Battle of the Little Big Horn occurred on June 25th.

On a side note: Crook had only 10 fatal and 21 wounded. Had he re-supplied his column and reengaged into the Rosebud, the outcome of the Little Big Horn might have been different.

300 extra soldiers against an estimated 1500-2000 warriors? Still would've been suicide. At least when Reno and Benteen met up, they circled their troops and held their ground. Much smarter than trying to charge right into the middle of the largest temporary village assembled in Plains Indian history. And yes, the natives' tactics changed from run to fight, especially when they saw the numbers were on their side. Custer also rode his men hard leading up to the battle, averaging 30 miles a day. There's a reason Custer graduated last in class at WP during the Civil War.

Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

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9/11

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Wasn't it determined that an FBI agent forwarded intelligence warning about the eventual attack that was, apparently, ignored in Washington?