We are looking at replacing my wife's 2015 Yukon with a smaller 3 row SUV and in my initial research I keep seeing videos and articles talking about the crash that should be happening in 2025. We aren't in a rush to buy, so I wanted to see if any of you experts have any insight into what to expect with the market and if waiting does us any good?

OK, so it sounds like everyone is expecting business as usual and kick the can down the road a little more.

I work in the real estate world and we're starting to finally see the cracks and getting pre-foreclosures ticking up after their initial attempt to restructure loans over the last couple of years. I wasn't sure if the auto market was starting to see the same kind of cracks relative to the last few years.

We are not one of the families that tries to pretend about anything, so I'll just start seeing what some of these different dealerships will do pricing wise on gently pre-owned and new.

Thanks for the opinions.

It depends on what you want.

Dealers can't give away EVs right now, so you can lease one for almost nothing.

Trucks are starting to get discounted by both the dealer and manufacturer. Just have to time things correctly.

Several manufacturers are back to offering cheap money. Mazda has 0.9% and 2.9% interest deals.

The used market has come back to earth, particularly if you're looking at EVs. How about a 2022 Porsche Taycan with 27k miles for $60k?

Is the market going to "crash"? Only relative to the craziness of post-COVID.

Thread from September 2023.....

New and used car prices projected to plummet

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....Haven't people been saying this for 12 months now?

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Yep, a bunch of automotive YouTubers have been predicting a big decline in prices for at least a year. There have been some price declines, but not like everybody hoped.

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I think the timing is adding up to original estimates on when supply would be able to rebound to close to normal which was mid 23'. That mixed with interest rates and the sheer price inflation is starting to flex in the mkt. they had the right message but optimistic on timing . Have to work through the backlog of buyers and supple first which has been happening this spring

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Up&ComingAg03 said:

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We are looking at replacing my wife's Yukon with a smaller 3 row SUV and in my initial research I keep seeing videos and articles talking about the crash that should be happening in 2025. We aren't in a rush to buy, so I wanted to see if any of you experts have any insight into what to expect with the market and if waiting does us any good?

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Our theory is that we should be able to pay all our bills on just 1 income. If you can do that, then you probably aren't over spending.

I keep hearing a crash is coming but haven't seen it with my current active search for a 2dr Bronco with a v6.

Dealers are coming off the MSRP about $4.5k but that's all. I was hoping for more considering I am looking at 2024s

Teslag said:

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In 2021 it was supposed to happen in 2022. And in 2022 it was supposed to happen in 2023. And on and on…

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This. And eventually, those people will be right, but it won't be because they knew anything more than you or I do.

Most would argue the crash has already happened, very few vehicles are commanding a premium and all are new.

Bigballin said:

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I keep hearing a crash is coming but haven't seen it with my current active search for a 2dr Bronco with a v6.

Dealers are coming off the MSRP about $4.5k but that's all. I was hoping for more considering I am looking at 2024s

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Username definitely not checking out here.

Bigballin said:

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Considering the astronomical rise in prices over the past four years, I would say that rebates are not reflecting a crash.

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I'll give you that, what has crashed is used vehicle values.

aggiepaintrain said:

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Bigballin said:

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Considering the astronomical rise in prices over the past four years, I would say that rebates are not reflecting a crash.

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I'll give you that, what has crashed is used vehicle values.

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And they'll continue to crash on certain vehicles for now because the market for their new brethren is not strong for multitudes of reasons. Example, banks are far more hesitant to give Broseph a 90K loan for a clapped out Ram worth 2/3 of its value or worse after driving off the lot.

You can't time the market, of course, but I got my truck 3 years ago at the end of January. I looked at what a similar mileage, same relative age, trim, etc. would be now. Across the board, it was cheaper -- at least 10% but as much as 20%. But while I could have waited, I've used it fairly extensively for its purpose and would have missed out on that (had a car before this).

Mechanic is swamped and told me many folks are just repairing and kicking the can. That demand will likely swallow up some supply as prices retreat (keeping it rather flat). I don't think there will be a crash, but if you target less desirable make / models, then you're bound to find a decent deal. I also heard some are just leasing monthly from rental car companies, taking uber / Lyft more or just searching for a bridge car. I'm in the later group.

I think just holding your line will go a long way. We politely excused ourselves from a deal yesterday evening as the dealer was 2K over our budget. We were told twice, that they were as low as they could offer. First thing this morning, I get a phone call stating they'll meet me at my price. Vehicles aren't moving now, just be willing to walk if the deal doesn't fit right, they'll budge.

Thanks for all of the opinions. It sounds like we will go ahead and start looking, but will have a pretty firm price and stick to it and not be in a hurry. Wife likes her Yukon, but between my Ram 2500 and her Yukon, our 15 year old daughter doesn't have the most size friendly cars to learn to drive on, so that's really the catalyst for getting something smaller. Thanks again for all of the info and insight.

Been holding out on this but my '15 silvy with 170K "basically" trouble free miles is starting to skip in 3rd, so maybe its time, a rebuild is 4K and I can't fathom spending 4K on a truck thats worth maybe twice that

The industry realized operating with lower inventory and maintaining prices was a pretty good place to be. Inventory has come up, but don't expect any meaningful crash. They are basically managing it to avoid one. And consumers are happy to keep leveraging more debt to keep buying

Bobcat-Ag said:

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$4k is a lot cheaper than $45k on a new truck.

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Yep, and that's for a base model 4x4 truck

AggieDruggist89 said:

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kyledr04 said:

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I held out on my wife's car as long as I could stand hoping for a crash but it never happened especially for popular vehicles. The amount of people driving $70000 Yukons blows me away.

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Idiot buddy just bought a Yukon Denali XL for $94,000. Then proceeded to complain about the property tax.

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This post makes no sense whatsoever. I'm disgusted at what I have to pay in property tax. My wife's '24 Denali is paid off. What does one have to do with the other?

FIDO*98* said:

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AggieDruggist89 said:

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kyledr04 said:

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I held out on my wife's car as long as I could stand hoping for a crash but it never happened especially for popular vehicles. The amount of people driving $70000 Yukons blows me away.

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Idiot buddy just bought a Yukon Denali XL for $94,000. Then proceeded to complain about the property tax.

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This post makes no sense whatsoever. I'm disgusted at what I have to pay in property tax. My wife's '24 Denali is paid off. What does one have to do with the other?

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Virginia has personal property tax. Car is considered as a personal property.

Mas89 said:

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In some states I think there is a property tax on personal vehicles. Iirc he is in California.

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CA doesn't tax cars as a personal property. But has a pretty high annual registration fee.

But they do tax tractor as a personal property and it's taxed.

I live in both VA and CA.

Mas89 said:

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In some states I think there is a property tax on personal vehicles. Iirc he is in California.

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Doesn't change my point. In fact, it furthers my point. If I can afford a nice car, why should the government take even more of my money?