Think we'll get some rain and/or surf out of this?
[This message has been edited by BTHOB4T12 (edited 8/3/2008 9:36a).]
quote:
Updated: Sunday, August 3rd 2008 6:04am CDT
Current Status
At 6AM CDT, Tropical Disturbance 35 is located near 28.0N/87.6W, or about 410 miles east-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20 mph. It is moving generally toward the south-southwest near 7 mph. The disturbance consists of a weak trough of low pressure at the surface, which is producing scattered thunderstorms.
Forecast Changes
There are no significant changes from our previous discussion.
Our Forecast
We think that the disturbance will track to the south-southwest to southwest at 5 to 10 mph during the next 12 to 18 hours, then generally toward the west at 10 to 15 mph tonight and Monday. This track would take the system inland along the mid to upper Texas coast by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
We estimate that the potential for the system to become a tropical storm before moving inland is good; at least as high as 50 percent. If the system tracks farther west before moving inland, it will have additional time to strengthen. We think the disturbance could become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm before it moves onshore. The primary threat will be from heavy rainfall.
Whether or not it develops into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, thunderstorms associated with the disturbance will produce gusty winds and rough seas across the offshore lease areas from south of the Florida Panhandle westward along the southeast Louisiana coastal waters today, then westward toward the upper Texas coast this tonight and Monday. Where the disturbance moves onshore, heavy rainfall is a good possibility from Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Other Possibilities
Though we think that the potential for the disturbance to become a hurricane is very low, no higher than 10 percent at the current time, we are now notifying our clients from Corpus Christi, Texas to Vermilion Bay, Louisiana that there is at least a slight risk of a hurricane impact by Monday evening. For those clients who have opted-in for our Hurricane Risk Indicator notification, you will now see this indication on your web pages and you will receive notification of the change in status in an email. We are not forecasting the system to become a hurricane, but we are identifying the possibility of such an occurrence for planning purposes.
The next update will be issued by 11AM CDT today.
Meteorologist: Joseph Spain
[This message has been edited by BTHOB4T12 (edited 8/3/2008 9:36a).]
