Any thoughts on who will end up winning this? Out here in Wichita County, we seems to sort of be an appendage to this district, so I can't see anyone from out this direction making a serious run at it.

Then there is the issue of what's going to happen with the West Texas seats in the next round of redistricting. At some point, the legislature may stop sending population west to fill out districts for Amarillo, Lubbock, and the Permian Basin, and collapse three West Texas Districts into 2.

Four Price?

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At some point, the legislature may stop sending population west to fill out districts for Amarillo, Lubbock, and the Permian Basin, and collapse three West Texas Districts into 2.

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Wut?

There are 435 representatives. With the 2010 census, on average, each rep had a district of about 700,000 people. When redistricting went in effect in 2012, we gained four seats, to 36 for Texas.

Given our population growth projections vs. national growth, it's possible we may gain two reps, to 38. But with the growth of population in the state, each rep should have about 775,000 people in their district.

Obviously, Thornberry's replacement will run in the current district. What happens for the 2020 election is up the air. Likely, the rural counties will have lost population or remained stagnant. The question is whether Amarillo and Wichita Falls will have grown enough to bring the population up to 775K.

If they have grown, the district won't change much, the same goes for District 19, with Lubbock and Abilene.

The two new reps will likely be in Houston or DFW.

The rural areas are not growing fast enough to keep pace (no growth at all--zero--in this neck of the woods) as the population size of a congressional district gets bigger. That's why these districts keep going further east every cycle. At some point, they've added so many eastern counties that they stop being West Texas districts. Wichita Falls wasn't always with the Panhandle. I had a relative that was in Congress when his district was carved up after the 1970 redistricting due to this same phenomenon.

Texas will add districts, but that still doesn't change the math. They keep having to steal more and more population from the I-35 corridor in order to fill out these West Texas districts.

Thanks, that explains it better.

Doubt the 2020 census will do the Panhandle/South Plains any favors. The funding for the census has been reduced over the years and the administration campaign to discourage the counting of all people will work to the disadvantage of the Panhandle. Amarillo is growing but it may not be enough to offset losses in other areas of the panhandle. The Panhandle is considered flyover country anyway and not all that important as a political unit. It has been relatively conservative historically and is more aligned politically with the State of Kansas than Texas or the southwest.

Who has filed ?

Well, RDML Ronny Jackson (Ret.) just filed. This should be the biggest news as it has already caused some candidates to drop out of the race. If you remember this name, it is because he was the personal physician for the past three presidents. He went to A&M Galveston.

Follow his twitter here:

https://twitter.com/search?q=ronny+jackson&ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Esearch

The biggest advertiser has been this Chris Eckstrom guy. Word I hear is that he has no prior connections to the districts and bought a house and set up shop in Wichita Falls when Thornberry retired to try to win the seat. I've asked his campaign to comment and they haven't so he can't have my vote.

Ronny Jackson could be accused of the same but I believe he grew up in the district, and moved back recently, perhaps to run, but at least there are roots.

I'll probably be supporting Josh Winegarner. Texas Cattlefeeders Assoc board member, worked for Phil Gramm and John Cornyn after college.

many9 said:

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I don't believe that Ronny Jackson grew up in the district. He was born by Lubbock I think. My understanding is that he is simply looking for a safe seat and thought this was his best chance. It looks like that is the only reason he moved here from DC. I hate to see all these candidates from outside the district looking for an easy way in. They should run in a district where they are from. At least run in a district where you have some type of history.

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Yeah, that was my read at first, but his bio says he grew up in Levelland I think. I don't doubt that his recent move back (bought a home between Canyon and Amarillo) was for the purpose of running, but if he did grow up here, then it's better than Chris Eckstrom who literally has no legitimate connections out here.

I'm not voting for either of the "carpetbaggers." There are some folks from out in my direction who I know or have connections to in the race, but I'll probably vote for Winegarner because of Mac's endorsement, and my previously expressed concern as to what will happen to the district after the census if the incumbent comes from the eastern end of the district.

My concern with Winegarner is he touts the endorsement of TCFA when he lobbies FOR THE TCFA.

I've got no problem with him lobbying for them, just concerned that he is part of the establishment and coupled with Mac's endorsement seems like more of the same.

One candidate I am interested in learning more about is Snider. He seems to have some strong ties to the region and is a bit of an outsider (please correct me if I'm wrong).

I'm afraid Ekstrom will win, based on his advertising blitz. Highly likely this will end up in a runoff. I'm leaning toward Weingartner, because I can't stand the carpetbaggers either.

Seems like a certainty that there will be a runoff. Getting to 50% with this many in the race is all but impossible.

Elaine Hayes (Amarillo City Council) is getting some interesting endorsements recently, I had not given her much attention.

There's going to be a "Candidate Forum" on Monday (Feb 24) from 6 to 7 pm in Spearman for the candidates running to replace Thornberry.

Unfortunately, I already have something scheduled and so I doubt that I make it to it.

Chris Ekstrom is really hitting Ronny Jackson hard with attack ads on the net tonight.

I consider Ekstrom to be a right wing radical rather than a Conservative.

I have been planning on voting for Josh Winegarner from Spearman, but Ekstrom's ads are making me think of voting for Jackson instead.

I'm afraid Ekstrom will do well, based on the gawd-awful number of ads he has out. So I expect the runoff to be Ekstrom vs. Weingarner or Jackson.

Regardless of which, I'm all in on Not Ekstrom.

CanyonAg77 said:

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I'm afraid Ekstrom will do well, based on the gawd-awful number of ads he has out. So I expect the runoff to be Ekstrom vs. Weingarner or Jackson.

Regardless of which, I'm all in on Not Ekstrom.

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We'll see. You have to remember that people don't watch television like they used to. I'm no spring chicken (class of '89), and I rarely watch local channels. Consequently, I've only seen a few Ekstrom ads.

But the older generation, who votes more, does still watch local TV. I'm saddened by the number of Chris Eckstrom yard signs I've seen in Canyon. His style of ads and rhetoric sicken me. I'm looking forward to casting my vote for Winegarner this afternoon but agree that it's likely to be an Eckstrom and someone else runnoff given the district wide visibility he's generated.

I've asked his campaign directly on several occasions to address the "carpetbagger" issue (I didn't use that word) and they won't answer.

He's saturated KGNC radio, which is the local Rush Limbaugh station, so he's hitting a lot of his target audience,

If Ekstrom does win, you guys in the Panhandle can probably take comfort in the fact that he will only be your congressman for two years, because if he's the incumbent, the legislature will slice off the panhandle and stick it with the Lubbock district. Ekstrom would be just fine with a suburban DFW district, and that's what will happen with the eastern end of the district if he's the incumbent.

Having said that, I'm optimistic that someone else will ultimately prevail. This guy is just too much of an opportunist.

Early returns, Wingarner leading, followed by Ekstrom, then Jackson.

3% reporting

In the Wichita County early vote, it was Winegarner 27.78%, Jackson, 23.77%, and Ekstrom 23.12%. I'd say Winegarner looks to be a lock for the runoff, and I suspect Jackson will get the other spot.

https://www.newschannel10.com/politics/election-results/

For anyone wanting to follow

CanyonAg77 said:

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https://www.newschannel10.com/politics/election-results/

For anyone wanting to follow

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I'm a bit puzzled. I understand what the (D) means after the name, but what does the (G) mean?

Maybe GOP? It's on every Republican

CanyonAg77 said:

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Maybe GOP? It's on every Republican

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Ahhh. I bet that's it.

For some reason, I couldn't get past it not being an (R). I don't think that I've ever seen a (G) instead of an (R) before.

Well I'm quite pleasantly surprised. My decision was between Jackson and Winegarner, and those are the two in the runnoff, and Eckstrom didn't make it.

The runoff should be interesting!

Surprised that Winegarner got that high of percentage. But he has been campaigning the longest.

Also surprised Ekstrom was that low (thankfully!).

I am supporting Jackson because I think he gives us the immediate influence on the hill - even if it is within the Executive Branch. A Freshman Congressman just doesn't have much sway (unless you are a media anti-Trump darling like AOC), and I think Trump will get re-elected - so having a personal relationship with Trump and his Cabinet will get us the most done for our district in the immediate future.

I wonder how the runoff will be affected by these two things:
1) Trump endorsing Jackson
2) The negative ads that Winegarner and Ekstrom started after the endorsement (a lot of the people I talked to said the negative ads made them mad....even people that voted early, wished they could switch back to Jackson - but that isn't a large sample size)

Thoughts?

I think we will see Trump weigh in more during the runoff - with maybe Don Jr. even coming to the district to stump some....not sure it will happen, but again, it could get interesting....

Winegarner is a prohibitive favorite, unless something comes up during the runoff. The turnout for a runoff is tiny, and having the endorsement of Thornberry probably carries more weight with the runoff electorate than Trump's endorsement of Jackson. Thornberry was a very popular incumbent, and I think 90% of the Republicans in the district would be happy with someone as much like Mac as possible.

But, regardless of who wins, at least its a choice between two good candidates.

Agreed. But reading Facebook posts from Jackson supporters, they're pretty motivated. As you said, likely a small turnout, so a small number of people could swing the results.

Almost half the voters picked someone else on Tuesday. Will be interesting to see if they come to the polls again.

I've not been here long enough to have a good feel, but I've heard it said that Panhandle voters kind of have a mind of their own, which I love. I'm happy with the two finalists regardless of how it goes, just hope it doesn't go ugly between these two.

And as crazy as it sounds, this stupid coronavirus scare may impact just about everything going forward. As stupid as it is, I think it very well may be the undoing of President Trump.