Got an arbitration offer today - $530k. I was hoping for $515k, but it's enough in my favor that I will get $450 of the $500 fee back. So I'll take it. This is down from $630k+ originally and $560k+ after ARB. Appraised value will still be greater than last year, though, so no tax savings.
Agent says HCAD still isn't using fair comps. They are using homes that are much larger than mine. What's frustrating is there are plenty of comps in my subdivision that are fair comps, but they are outside my exact "Neighborhood Number". He tried arguing for the $480-range, but couldn't get them down that low.
Frustrating thing is, I will just wash, rinse, and repeat this all again next year. But for the moment, I feel somewhat vindicated.
Edit: after talking with me, my rep called the appraiser back and said we can't take less than $515k, and the appraiser accepted!