NYC for sure.

but Dallas?

seems like Fair Park is the same ****hole it's always been

Austin is still split right down the middle.

I guess I don't know what you mean by gentrification.

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I don't think a lot if you understand the definition of a bubble.
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I keep wondering what to call it, but prices are getting to a bubble stage. Seeing 20% or more price hikes in some areas in just a year? Oil money, low interest rates, & a ton of people buying cash. I'm also curious which of those major three factors will drop first. The transplants overpaying have cash.

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I just used the term for lack of a better word. In all reality, my house was NOT worth what it sold for and I felt that it was at the peak of a bell curve, if not a bubble. I do miss the Heights, but I'm happy I got out when I did. If I had land in Timbergrove/Oak Forest I would have held on, but a townhome wasn't worth the "risk" of lost profits.

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my house was NOT worth what it sold for

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value is determined by the buyer

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I guess I don't know what you mean by gentrification.

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You are right; I am using the term too loosely.

Guess what I meant was Houston was one of the last cities to not a have an upper middle class demographic living in-town. River Oaks always existed but that is more upper class (generational wealth) than upper middle class.

Dallas has several in-town upper middle class neighborhoods, but Houston had none until around 2000. West U as it is today is relatively new.

[This message has been edited by hombre (edited 8/19/2014 9:24a).]

It's hard to tell whether this is a bubble or not. Unlike in Cali/LV/Phx/etc the house price increases here were driven by booming population and economy.

But even though prices start rising due to solid fundamentals, they can quickly get out of whack because people start expecting rapid appreciation and paying for it. When you see people making $200k or more within a few years, it influences your behavior.

I don't have the stats, but I'd just look to the historical price to rent ratio and price to income ratio for Houston and see where we are today. Rents and incomes have obviously gone way up, so home prices should have gone up as well...but by how much?

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Dallas has several in-town upper middle class neighborhoods, but Houston had none until around 2000. West U as it is today is relatively new.

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I'm not sure I agree with that. Houston had River Oaks (~15k people) and Southampton/Boulevard Oaks (~5k people) and West U (~15k people) vs Highland Park and University Park (30k people total). West U was very upper middle class in 2000, although you could definitely get deals by the train tracks.

EDIT: Just re-read your post. If you exclude purely upper class areas then Dallas might have the edge.

[This message has been edited by Gator03 (edited 8/19/2014 9:33a).]

i see what you're saying

unlike some of these other places, so long as the economy keeps plugging along, i don't see the Houston gentrification stopping down

the ITL infrastructure is pretty great

Austin is a total joke in comparison

[This message has been edited by SuperDave03 (edited 8/19/2014 9:39a).]

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It's hard to tell whether this is a bubble or not. Unlike in Cali/LV/Phx/etc the house price increases here were driven by booming population and economy.

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Its just really hard to label the housing market here. Its a perfect storm of factors that are effecting the market. I'm curious if the interest rate jumps another one or two percent suddenly, would that ease people from selling wherever they're from and moving down here? The amount of cash being thrown is around is crazy, i hear it all the time from people selling about multiple cash offers in the hottest areas.

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I'm curious if the interest rate jumps another one or two percent suddenly, would that ease people from selling wherever they're from and moving down here? The amount of cash being thrown is around is crazy, i hear it all the time from people selling about multiple cash offers in the hottest areas.

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The Houston market desperately needs some rate increases to tap the brakes a little on the appreciation(which won't happen due to the national market), but you are right, I hear about the cash offers too, so maybe the impact would be minimal. Maybe the Realtors on the board can shed some light on that.

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at the peak of a bell curve

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#doesnotunderstandbellcurves

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The other side effect is it means I will probably end up having to spend $100K to build a garage apartment.

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Yeah ... just got a bid for $111,400. Yikes.

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Sell?

No way. That's a retirement investment.

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This is assuming the market won't go back down in the future.

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I'm curious if the interest rate jumps another one or two percent suddenly, would that ease people from selling wherever they're from and moving down here? The amount of cash being thrown is around is crazy, i hear it all the time from people selling about multiple cash offers in the hottest areas.

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The Houston market desperately needs some rate increases to tap the brakes a little on the appreciation(which won't happen due to the national market), but you are right, I hear about the cash offers too, so maybe the impact would be minimal. Maybe the Realtors on the board can shed some light on that.

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Rates aren't going up measurably anytime soon.

For the most part, you are seeing a huge population increase in Houston due to our stronger economy. Even when oil is down, Houston has several industries that helps sustain the city. We have just been fortunate that we had a lot of real estate west for the city to expand. I believe we have finally started to reach the point of return on investment for living outside the city. I remember when Katy Mills was built in just open fields. Now it is surrounded by housing and industry. I still think the city will expand west but outside of an hour commute, people start to really consider paying more for closer in to town.

I am currently moving into the west heights/shady acres area from Katy. I used to work energy corridor and now work downtown. We originally bought in Katy a new build home. We couldn't afford a nicer home closer to town and as our first house didn't want to have to put a lot of money or time in maintenance. The commute at the time was 15-20 minutes and worked great for us. We bought at around $190K but with $8k tax credit at the time it was closer to $182K for 2700sqft. After four years we just sold our house for about $250K being on the market two days. This is in a Katy cookie cutter neighborhood.

We now have made our 1h15min commute down to 15min by moving closer to town. I did some rough numbers and it is basically costing us $25/day to move closer but saves us 4hrs of commuting between my wife and I. That is valuing our time at ~$6/hr which isn't even minimum wage. If you can afford to move downtown, especially if you work downtown, the finances still aren't that crazy for what you are getting.

I believe Houston was way undervalued and we never saw much increase due to the large amount of undeveloped land to the west. Now most of the land that is within the 1hr commute range, has been pretty well developed. You then run into two problems because of this. Highways are struggling to keep up with the traffic demand. I10/290/45/59 all have their own issues and unique hells that can be caused by a single accident. Go back 5-10years and traffic isn't close to what it is today. Even with expansions of highways it seems that the relief is quickly outpaced by our record growth. Combine the increased congestion with the fact that home building was in the dumps for several years due to the economy and you have a city racing to try to come up with enough housing to meet all the demand. All these factors are contributing at the same time to pushing prices on the prime real estate higher and higher. I don't see prices coming down within the next 10 years and I believe are more likely finding the normal range that they are truly worth.

TLDR; We have built up most of the land within 1hr of downtown. Traffic continues to get worse. Not enough housing is available. All of this has lead to people paying more money and IMO will be the norm going forward.

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If you can afford to move downtown, especially if you work downtown, the finances still aren't that crazy for what you are getting.

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You gotta stop calling everything ITL "downtown" or you'll sound like an OTLer.

Welcome. I have your old reverse commute now going from Timbergrove to Katy.

Just OTL in Oak Forest, but my neighbor just got a cash offer of $486k ($20k over list price I think) for his 2,025 SF home from some Colorado transplant. That's pretty crazy for this area. Hoping the upward trend can continue for a few years. Also hoping my new neighbor isn't a commie.

with that amount of cash, even if he is a commie, you can trust that he is pretty senior in the party. They tend to enjoy our western extravagences.

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Even when oil is down, Houston has several industries that helps sustain the city.

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The city's economy is much more diverse than it was in the 70s. But if another bust happens, there is a lot of optimism if someone thinks it wouldn't cause cracks. We're a boomtown like any other part of Texas for a big reason.

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We have built up most of the land within 1hr of downtown.

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I'm still waiting for folks to start scooping up 0.5-1.0 acre tracts in Acres Homes, high-fencing those b****es, and building 4,000 sf houses on them.

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Just OTL in Oak Forest, but my neighbor just got a cash offer of $486k ($20k over list price I think) for his 2,025 SF home from some Colorado transplant. That's pretty crazy for this area. Hoping the upward trend can continue for a few years. Also hoping my new neighbor isn't a commie.

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That's nuts. Was he sitting on a huge lot? At that square footage, I assume it was just remodeled recently.

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I am currently moving into the west heights/shady acres area from Katy. I used to work energy corridor and now work downtown. We originally bought in Katy a new build home. We couldn't afford a nicer home closer to town and as our first house didn't want to have to put a lot of money or time in maintenance. The commute at the time was 15-20 minutes and worked great for us. We bought at around $190K but with $8k tax credit at the time it was closer to $182K for 2700sqft. After four years we just sold our house for about $250K being on the market two days. This is in a Katy cookie cutter neighborhood.

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What do you plan to do when you have kids? Do you have a plan on where to send them to school?

Kids are why a lot of people move to the burbs because it is a hell of lot cheaper to live in the burbs and send kids to public school than live in the city and send them to private.

I live in Lazybrook Section 2, so essentially, I live in Timbergrove. Based on a sold comparable directly across the street this month, I would say my home value has increased over $150k since December 2012. No BS.

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Kids are why a lot of people move to the burbs because it is a hell of lot cheaper to live in the burbs and send kids to public school than live in the city and send them to private.

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That is a very good point. I wasn't saying it was cheaper to live closer to the city, especially with a family. I was saying that looking at the value of your time, compared to the cost of the house, the shorter commute a lot of the time makes more sense combined with a more expensive home. Now, if you can't afford a more expensive home/private school/etc, then your time is better used commuting to save those costs. My estimate was based on my specific condition, not a cookie cutter for everyone.

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Just OTL in Oak Forest, but my neighbor just got a cash offer of $486k ($20k over list price I think) for his 2,025 SF home from some Colorado transplant. That's pretty crazy for this area. Hoping the upward trend can continue for a few years. Also hoping my new neighbor isn't a commie.

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That's nuts. Was he sitting on a huge lot? At that square footage, I assume it was just remodeled recently.

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Recently put in wood floors. It's a nice home for sure, with a very nice kitchen...but I was still amazed to see him get that for it.

Re: schools, there are a couple of good public options in the heights but you will probably have to test your kids into them. In OF or GO you are cool, good elementary schools and Black Jr High is trending up and should be good by the time your little runts get there. High school is a different story, but it's a long ways away.

Or just bite the bullet and go private all the way.

Or sell your soul and move to the burbs and waste your life away on the freeway with the other schmucks.

It's all a balancing act and we are all just trying to figure it out.

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I live in Lazybrook Section 2, so essentially, I live in Timbergrove. Based on a sold comparable directly across the street this month, I would say my home value has increased over $150k since December 2012. No BS.

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Sounds like a bubble to me

Watch out for falling oil demand in China

I remodeled a tiny bungalow in the Heights 3 years ago- 1500Sq feet and sold for 406K.

Houses in Lawndale are now $350k...

http://swamplot.com/a-decked-out-lawndale-cottage-polishes-up-nicely-for-349900/2014-09-24/

It is a nice house though... But Lawndale?!

I wonder if there is some softening going on. The house listed in the OP has an option pending, but a couple other houses have remained on the market for a couple of weeks seemingly without offers. One house a block over was even reduced about $50K recently after going back on the market without having sold when previously listed. For the last couple of years properties have been selling within a day or two.

I think so, and it's much needed IMHO.

How much of it is seasonal and how much is buyer pushback remains to be seen. Probably a bit of both.

May just be a little fatigue from the sellers market, RTT. Buyers are tired of losing out on multiples, and sellers are going a little nuts with their pricing. Plus, Q3 always seems to be our slowest time. My wife and experienced a lull in our business, but our buyers are starting to resurface for a strong EOY push.

Check out 72846044.

I think they were asking $699K for it AFTER it didn't sell for $599K.

Yeah, that's been on the market over 200 days and DEFINITELY overpriced in my quick valuation.

They had it listed around $640k to start and reduced to $599k, but then raised it to $719k after the "rehab" was completed. After that listing was withdrawn, they restarted the listing again at a more moderately aggressive price. However, just looking at the photos, I can't say their upgrades are worthy of that pricing.

The only thing they rehabbed was the kitchen, as far as I can tell. The house was moved onto the lot and the flippers ran out of money and it was foreclosed. Whoever bought it after that went bottom-of-the-line contractor grade. I've been in that house, and all the bathrooms are as cheap as they look.

Wow that second story addition is out of place and ugly....I like the listing agent's claim that the garage can be converted for a second story apartment...yea after lots of $$$$$$$ to raide the roof and build it out.