DropDemNuggetz said:

---

duck79 said:

---

There are a lot of people moving to North Texas from the West Coast with cash offers. I'm curious who is buying all those homes in the West Coast because there are definitely more going than coming there.

---

I've never understood this argument. I don't disagree that demand across the metroplex has absolutely exploded, and part of that explosion has been caused by the significant migration of people from out of state over the past 10 years. That said, just because people are moving from a location that has significantly higher real estate prices doesn't mean that they are somehow better off or have significantly more equity in the home they are selling prior to arriving in Dallas. It seems like people are too quick to assume that if you lived on the west coast or any other higher cost of living area, you immediately can afford more and have the wealth/assets to be able to make a cash offer. Ultimately most of the people living in those areas are levered out the wazoo (multiple mortgages) and are relying entirely on house appreciation. I will agree that the benefits of realizing appreciation on a home that is in an area that garners significantly higher prices will mean you have more for a down payment when you move to an area where the housing prices are lower, I just struggle to understand this being the main "reason" that everyone so quickly wants to point to when discussing some of the more recent housing issues in the metroplex.

---

I think most people are referring to the well-to-do move-ins... not the "can't find a job in Jersey and my cousin Vinny lives in Texas"... This is the VP level person in Boston who just got a $50-100k pay bump to move to the desert of Texas and be forced to ride a horse and wrestle rattlesnakes..

They sell their house they've lived in for 10 years... make $750k cash on cash... and stroll down here with a $250k salary and a mindset of "I'll just keep doing this and probably move again".

DFW has become a transient city where people move to make money and move on, I think. Similar to silicon valley. Move to San Fran, take the big pay raise, then you're gone in 3-4 years with another pay raise.

For down here... it's... "move to Texas? my family has never been west of the Appalachians because I'm from Bahstun, but sure, cheaper to live and you'll pay me $50k more per year"

Happens a ton down here... and now you see where the "wealth" and cash offer stuff comes from.

Literally talked to a guy for 2 hours on Friday and he moved here from New Hampshire (entire family is from there). Why Texas you say? to follow his daughter to TCU. Lives in Frisco... dude makes $400-500k/year and started up a new branch of a good size investment bank. Daughter graduated, went to law school and now lives in Plano. That's why your 3,500 sqft house is going for $1.2mm. Those people ain't going back to New Hampshire.

ChoppinDs40 said:

---

91AggieLawyer said:

---

chick79 said:

---

Buyers remorse will be coming for a lot of new homeowners in the not too distant future.

---

Depends on the area and buyer. And for the most part, no.

DFW housing is not a bubble. There doesn't appear to be a slowing of demand soon. They are building in places where they'd never have dreamed of building a decade ago -- noisy areas, etc.

---

I think there will be once people see property tax bills. People moving down here just don't understand the cost of that...

We're looking at buying a place in CO and the same price house there is less than half the amount of property taxes... I found a $1.3mm house in WP that's got $5k in property taxes.... that's almost $30k here!!! that's a YUGE "purchasing power" difference.

At least in the high range... it absolutely blows my mind how many people can afford a $1mm++ home down here.

---

People who are still working have to pay a big income tax in CO. Also, there is a big issue of water rights/shortages there, in various areas that are hit more than others. Say what you will about the politics, but the market does a pretty good job of adjusting over time to the tax/conditions. As interest (and insurance) rates skyrocket, expect those CO property values also to…not be as comparatively appealing.

ChoppinDs40 said:

---

DropDemNuggetz said:

---

duck79 said:

---

There are a lot of people moving to North Texas from the West Coast with cash offers. I'm curious who is buying all those homes in the West Coast because there are definitely more going than coming there.

---

I've never understood this argument. I don't disagree that demand across the metroplex has absolutely exploded, and part of that explosion has been caused by the significant migration of people from out of state over the past 10 years. That said, just because people are moving from a location that has significantly higher real estate prices doesn't mean that they are somehow better off or have significantly more equity in the home they are selling prior to arriving in Dallas. It seems like people are too quick to assume that if you lived on the west coast or any other higher cost of living area, you immediately can afford more and have the wealth/assets to be able to make a cash offer. Ultimately most of the people living in those areas are levered out the wazoo (multiple mortgages) and are relying entirely on house appreciation. I will agree that the benefits of realizing appreciation on a home that is in an area that garners significantly higher prices will mean you have more for a down payment when you move to an area where the housing prices are lower, I just struggle to understand this being the main "reason" that everyone so quickly wants to point to when discussing some of the more recent housing issues in the metroplex.

---

I think most people are referring to the well-to-do move-ins... not the "can't find a job in Jersey and my cousin Vinny lives in Texas"... This is the VP level person in Boston who just got a $50-100k pay bump to move to the desert of Texas and be forced to ride a horse and wrestle rattlesnakes..

They sell their house they've lived in for 10 years... make $750k cash on cash... and stroll down here with a $250k salary and a mindset of "I'll just keep doing this and probably move again".

DFW has become a transient city where people move to make money and move on, I think. Similar to silicon valley. Move to San Fran, take the big pay raise, then you're gone in 3-4 years with another pay raise.

For down here... it's... "move to Texas? my family has never been west of the Appalachians because I'm from Bahstun, but sure, cheaper to live and you'll pay me $50k more per year"

Happens a ton down here... and now you see where the "wealth" and cash offer stuff comes from.

Literally talked to a guy for 2 hours on Friday and he moved here from New Hampshire (entire family is from there). Why Texas you say? to follow his daughter to TCU. Lives in Frisco... dude makes $400-500k/year and started up a new branch of a good size investment bank. Daughter graduated, went to law school and now lives in Plano. That's why your 3,500 sqft house is going for $1.2mm. Those people ain't going back to New Hampshire.

---

I was going to dispute your first bolded point but then you disputed yourself with the second. I'm not sure how transient DFW is and don't think it is at all. Would need to see the data on that.

Almost everyone I've talked to who moved to DFW from out of state absolutely loves it here and does not want to ever leave. People I've talked to from out of state who do not live here tell us all the time that Dallas is their favorite city when we tell them we are from here.

For all the trash talk we have about one another in state, as natives, people outside the state love this place.

YouBet said:

---

ChoppinDs40 said:

---

DropDemNuggetz said:

---

duck79 said:

---

There are a lot of people moving to North Texas from the West Coast with cash offers. I'm curious who is buying all those homes in the West Coast because there are definitely more going than coming there.

---

I've never understood this argument. I don't disagree that demand across the metroplex has absolutely exploded, and part of that explosion has been caused by the significant migration of people from out of state over the past 10 years. That said, just because people are moving from a location that has significantly higher real estate prices doesn't mean that they are somehow better off or have significantly more equity in the home they are selling prior to arriving in Dallas. It seems like people are too quick to assume that if you lived on the west coast or any other higher cost of living area, you immediately can afford more and have the wealth/assets to be able to make a cash offer. Ultimately most of the people living in those areas are levered out the wazoo (multiple mortgages) and are relying entirely on house appreciation. I will agree that the benefits of realizing appreciation on a home that is in an area that garners significantly higher prices will mean you have more for a down payment when you move to an area where the housing prices are lower, I just struggle to understand this being the main "reason" that everyone so quickly wants to point to when discussing some of the more recent housing issues in the metroplex.

---

I think most people are referring to the well-to-do move-ins... not the "can't find a job in Jersey and my cousin Vinny lives in Texas"... This is the VP level person in Boston who just got a $50-100k pay bump to move to the desert of Texas and be forced to ride a horse and wrestle rattlesnakes..

They sell their house they've lived in for 10 years... make $750k cash on cash... and stroll down here with a $250k salary and a mindset of "I'll just keep doing this and probably move again".

DFW has become a transient city where people move to make money and move on, I think. Similar to silicon valley. Move to San Fran, take the big pay raise, then you're gone in 3-4 years with another pay raise.

For down here... it's... "move to Texas? my family has never been west of the Appalachians because I'm from Bahstun, but sure, cheaper to live and you'll pay me $50k more per year"

Happens a ton down here... and now you see where the "wealth" and cash offer stuff comes from.

Literally talked to a guy for 2 hours on Friday and he moved here from New Hampshire (entire family is from there). Why Texas you say? to follow his daughter to TCU. Lives in Frisco... dude makes $400-500k/year and started up a new branch of a good size investment bank. Daughter graduated, went to law school and now lives in Plano. That's why your 3,500 sqft house is going for $1.2mm. Those people ain't going back to New Hampshire.

---

I was going to dispute your first bolded point but then you disputed yourself with the second. I'm not sure how transient DFW is and don't think it is at all. Would need to see the data on that.

Almost everyone I've talked to who moved to DFW from out of state absolutely loves it here and does not want to ever leave. People I've talked to from out of state who do not live here tell us all the time that Dallas is their favorite city when we tell them we are from here.

For all the trash talk we have about one another in state, as natives, people outside the state love this place.

---

I assume you're from here, as am I... and my family has been here since the 30s so I've seen and heard of a lot of changes over the years.

I should have said, DFW has BECOME much more transient... and that's relative. For the longest time, this area was... you grew up here and stayed here or went to school elsewhere and moved back. Not too many out-of-staters comparatively. Then people heard about Frisco like it was the gold rush of 1849. The influx in Frisco started back in the early 2000s.... Stonebriar Mall with H2's and California plates anyone?

Now, I agree, most of the people I've met from out of state love it here... moved here for the schools, community, friendly Texan thing and aren't ever moving home to wherever they came from. However, let's be honest... they moved here for a big pay raise and cheaper living.

Having a property that appreciates faster than my capacity to pay for it isn't the worst that could happen to me. I hope it doesn't come to that. I was fortunate enough to make enough in the last two years to be able to pay it off in two years to pay it off five years after I bought it, so I have a lot of runway before I get priced out of it. I'm way more fortunate than a lot of people. I just happened to buy in an area that's increasing even faster than the overall market in the area, it's been a good thing overall. If not for a temporary (I assume) contraction in my income I wouldn't even be worried about it.

I'm only 35 and have a lot of opportunity to adjust.

Are you implying that you would be priced out of a home due to property taxes? After saying you paid it off in 5 years? That makes zero sense (unless I'm totally misunderstanding).

If he's 35, he has 30 years of appreciation on the home before his taxes can be frozen. He may be priced out at age 65 depending on what his retirement income is like.

and this is where the TCJA limit of $10k is going to blast so many of us that itemize.

I had almost $8,000 in property taxes that I couldn't deduct this year because of the cap.

I work in mortgage. I made 3x what I normally make between short term investments and a booming mortgage market in 2020. I took that boom money and investments and put it towards my mortgage rather than the market, because my income can fluctuate wildly with interest rates. I'm currently making ~60% of what I made in 2019 and less than what I made when I bought the house.

My house has appreciated at around 12% annually since I bought it 8 years ago, all lot value increases, they're tearing down the neighborhood and putting up McMansions. 4 more years of that same appreciation rate I'll have a tax bill that exceeds the mortgage, tax and insurance payment I had when I bought the property.

There probably won't come a time where I can't actually make the payments in some form or another, but I don't intend on living poor in a house with no mortgage.

Quote:

---

Starting to be convinced I could sell my house for $1M. Hard to not test the waters but we have no reason to move right now.

---

But where would you go?

SteveA said:

---

Quote:

---

Starting to be convinced I could sell my house for $1M. Hard to not test the waters but we have no reason to move right now.

---

But where would you go?

---

That's the $1M question.

It makes no sense for us to sell unless we completely leave DFW.

YouBet said:

---

SteveA said:

---

Quote:

---

Starting to be convinced I could sell my house for $1M. Hard to not test the waters but we have no reason to move right now.

---

But where would you go?

---

That's the $1M question.

It makes no sense for us to sell unless we completely leave DFW.

---

even sherman/denison is expecting 25% price increases

mobile homes are getting pricier?!

Honestly... moving to Northwest Arkansas doesn't sound like a bad idea.

This is going to ruin some of your nights…

Teacher_Ag said:

---

Yeah, definitely north side of McKinney east of 75 is rough. McKinney North from what I hear is a pretty rough school, unfortunately. When we were househunting we found some little houses from the 70's that someone had bought, flipped, and were selling for like over $300K and next door there's a broken down car and kids toys all over the lawn.

---

Who told you north is a rough school? Compared to what? I know multiple families with kids there and have never heard a complaint that I wouldn't hear about any other high school. The only people that might consider it rough have never ventured outside of their privileged McKinney bubble.
I've been in McKinney for over 15 years and have never felt unsafe anywhere in this town...

What's the outlook for Dallas County? I can't find anything.

I assume the outlook is pain.

Red Pear DFW Luke said:

---

This is going to ruin some of your nights…

---

Anything above 0% is to high. Regardless of counties in DFW. Until some basic government functions improve these increases in taxes are theft. Nothing is getting done.

YouBet said:

---

What's the outlook for Dallas County? I can't find anything.

I assume the outlook is pain.

---

As of this afternoon, there is not a single home for sale in Lakewood proper according to Zillow. This is ridiculous. I know people are selling homes in this area, they just are never making it to the market due to getting enough 'above asking' offers from the real estate "back channels" that they feel it is unnecessary. This is pure insanity.



And yes I cleared all my Zillow filters.

Don't live in Lakewood proper, but my house is in that picture. My brother lives right down the road. His neighbor just put their house on the market at $347/sq ft. 1700 sq ft house. It was under contract in 5 days. Have no idea how much over asking it went.

My parents owned a house in the same neighborhood. 967 sq ft. They sold it last year for $413/sq ft.

I bought 8 years ago at $190/sq ft. You can't get a vacant lot here for that now.

There are a few for sale in my old neighborhood over there just to the south: Hollywood Santa Monica.

I can't believe what some of those homes are going for though. However, you can also still find some good deals in there if you like DIY projects.

We sold our house in 2015 off market back then. Got 2 offers in about 12 hours and sold it next day after email went out through realtor.

AggieFactor said:

---

As of this afternoon, there is not a single home for sale in Lakewood proper according to Zillow. This is ridiculous. I know people are selling homes in this area, they just are never making it to the market due to getting enough 'above asking' offers from the real estate "back channels" that they feel it is unnecessary. This is pure insanity.



And yes I cleared all my Zillow filters.

---

What are you talking about. There is one for 5.4 million. I jog by it couple times a week. By the way they just started the remodel so it's gonna be some time if one of you wants to put an offer in.

Multiple people including some recently graduated former students. I would love for you to sub for a few days in some McKinney North on-level classes. Please report back.