Ha. I've run though that neighborhood a 100 times probably. Went to Bell and still live nearby. My wife grew up right down Stonegate. She's a realtor too if you change your mind
Real Estate Insanity in North Dallas
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Last: 3 yr ago by powerbelly
I don't understand with all that land up there, why are the lots still 1/4 acre?
PlanoAg98 said:
I don't understand with all that land up there, why are the lots still 1/4 acre?
Prepping for the impending land rush? I don't really have a good answer other than it is.
We left for the sticks in 2015. I wanted to get in the area (relatively) before the Star was finished and developments started going up around it. The main draw was the schools and being around other young families. At that point, one option was the LH bubble, and everything in our price range and size needed $75k+ of refurb work. It just wasn't in the cards for us. So to the sticks.
I the first week we were up here, I remember having to wait for kids to clear in order to drive down the street. They had rolled out a hoop and were playing basketball. That night, I was driving by and I remember being aghast that kids had left their bikes out in front of their house, and that they weren't terrified of them being stolen. Then I remembered that this was how I grew up, and I knew we had found the right place to raise a young family.
Fast forward 6 years. My kid and I do a "long walk" to school on Fridays, by which I mean we walk the 0.5 mile to the elementary. We ride scooters and bikes on the weekend with the dogs. In the summer we walk to the neighborhood pool. We're never the only families out, and the people we wave to are friendly. The block captain hosts a crawfish boil every memorial day. The front yards are full on Halloween with decorations, and the streets are packed with kids i recognize. Everyone puts up christmas lights. My neighbor's daughter babysits when we go out.
Over that same time period, my house has nearly doubled in value. It's true that we're in a bubble, and it's true that developments north and south of us have helped a ton. But I get it. It's American Dream out here.
I the first week we were up here, I remember having to wait for kids to clear in order to drive down the street. They had rolled out a hoop and were playing basketball. That night, I was driving by and I remember being aghast that kids had left their bikes out in front of their house, and that they weren't terrified of them being stolen. Then I remembered that this was how I grew up, and I knew we had found the right place to raise a young family.
Fast forward 6 years. My kid and I do a "long walk" to school on Fridays, by which I mean we walk the 0.5 mile to the elementary. We ride scooters and bikes on the weekend with the dogs. In the summer we walk to the neighborhood pool. We're never the only families out, and the people we wave to are friendly. The block captain hosts a crawfish boil every memorial day. The front yards are full on Halloween with decorations, and the streets are packed with kids i recognize. Everyone puts up christmas lights. My neighbor's daughter babysits when we go out.
Over that same time period, my house has nearly doubled in value. It's true that we're in a bubble, and it's true that developments north and south of us have helped a ton. But I get it. It's American Dream out here.
$3.8mm for a 1.1 acre lot in Preston Hollow. I get PH isn't cheap, but good grief.
https://www.briggsfreeman.com/sales/detail/610-l-599-14739490/10051-gaywood-road-central-dfw-dallas-tx-75229?utm_source=adfenix&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=HomeBooster&fbclid=IwAR3Ko2G3dxPBs1KXvTv7ElphWCW5u2miAO7i_N5yzmav29aBejEpYcIUniQ
https://www.briggsfreeman.com/sales/detail/610-l-599-14739490/10051-gaywood-road-central-dfw-dallas-tx-75229?utm_source=adfenix&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=HomeBooster&fbclid=IwAR3Ko2G3dxPBs1KXvTv7ElphWCW5u2miAO7i_N5yzmav29aBejEpYcIUniQ
Quote:
$3.8mm for a 1.1 acre lot in Preston Hollow. I get PH isn't cheap, but good grief.
You obviously did not see the pool.
Agree that $3.8 is outrageous but that location will draw a strong premium over a standard PH lot. That area is a big place to rub elbows. Only big drawback is that it is near Walnut Hill.
Also wouldn't be surprised to see a neighbor buy it to expand their lot and create a buffer. Money over there is stupid.
Also wouldn't be surprised to see a neighbor buy it to expand their lot and create a buffer. Money over there is stupid.
Ol Jock 99 said:
$3.8mm for a 1.1 acre lot in Preston Hollow. I get PH isn't cheap, but good grief.
https://www.briggsfreeman.com/sales/detail/610-l-599-14739490/10051-gaywood-road-central-dfw-dallas-tx-75229?utm_source=adfenix&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=HomeBooster&fbclid=IwAR3Ko2G3dxPBs1KXvTv7ElphWCW5u2miAO7i_N5yzmav29aBejEpYcIUniQ
It would be north of $4M if it weren't on a street named "Gaywood".
Ol Jock 99 said:
$3.8mm for a 1.1 acre lot in Preston Hollow. I get PH isn't cheap, but good grief.
https://www.briggsfreeman.com/sales/detail/610-l-599-14739490/10051-gaywood-road-central-dfw-dallas-tx-75229?utm_source=adfenix&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=HomeBooster&fbclid=IwAR3Ko2G3dxPBs1KXvTv7ElphWCW5u2miAO7i_N5yzmav29aBejEpYcIUniQ
Over an acre of land in PH is primo. That house will get scraped.
knoxtom said:Baba Ganoush said:Red Pear Luke said:Teacher_Ag said:
We sold our home in the Panhandle and relocated to McKinney in 2020. Super unlucky timing.
Any luck on finding anything yet? Hoping for good things for y'all, but the Prosper area is a booger bear right now.
Saw this listing today for $1M and I, as both a local and realtor, am flabbergasted at the asking price of almost $300/sf for a 3bed/3bath. No pool or anything.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/621-Sunbury-Ln-Prosper-TX-75078/125235861_zpid
Are you freaking kidding me? That house is right up the road from me. A cool $1 mil for 3/3? Glad I moved up here in 2010.
Also an acquaintance was looking to make a back up offer on this. The realtor said it was under contract for $150k over asking.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1421-Bridgewater-Blvd-Celina-TX-75009/242110469_zpid/
The price on the house in prosper just blows me away. Why would anyone pay a million to live in a generic home in Prosper. Especially when 99% of homeowners there have a LONG commute.
Colorado used to be expensive, DFW has blown right past it. Here is the closest comp in my neighborhood to that prosper home, even though they really aren't comparable. And when you look at actual payments (given the insane Texas property taxes) the DFW home costs 2000-2500 more a month.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/665-Paisley-Dr-Colorado-Springs-CO-80906/80397727_zpid/
Which would you rather live in?
So I went to the open house for the house on Paisley shown above. House was nice but smelled like dog pee and the living room was tiny. In fact all the bed rooms pretty much fit a queen sized bed, a nightstand and nothing else.
They got 6 offers over the weekend and went under contract on the monday after. I guess the craziness is still strong here as well.
OP, thats my neigborhood. Have you driven around? $3.2 mill is not a good price but these houses are going up everywhere in that neighborhood.
Our home was $250k in 2012. We bought it in 2016 for $410k. It's now valued over $650k. Nothing special. 20 years old...
10001 just hit the market for $4.2M. Also just over 1 acre.
https://10001gaywood.daveperrymiller.com
3:45pm edit to add that they just reduced the price on 10051 to $3.475M.
https://10001gaywood.daveperrymiller.com
3:45pm edit to add that they just reduced the price on 10051 to $3.475M.
S&P 500 up 3.75x over same time period (since Jan 2012).Wheatables02 said:
Our home was $250k in 2012. We bought it in 2016 for $410k. It's now valued over $650k. Nothing special. 20 years old...
Income growth is up but will look pretty flat on a chart that shows stocks, houses and other asset prices.
Makes you wonder how it is going end.
Let me throw this out with the caveat that it PROBABLY doesn't apply, but I'm starting to wonder.
There's a theory backed by decent evidence that a lot of commercial property in NYC that has perpetual "for rent" signs in them are not actually for rent. They are commercial buildings owned by foreign entities as a way to "park" cash in a relatively safe manner. These entities don't need the cash for 5-10 years and are willing to forego earning a premium on the funds (by leasing them out) to stay in relative anonymity. Maybe its for nefarious purposes, but then again, maybe not. Either way, they'll take the increase in property value when they sell in a few years as their sole return on investment. For some reason, Swiss accounts won't do. Maybe they need some sort of legitimacy in the US.
Now, with that said, Texas is way different than NYC. Property taxes make something like this much tougher. Plus, the example here is residential. So this is almost certainly not what's happening in this case. However, I post this to all but wonder: is this tactic going to arrive here at some point? Will the market value increases of real estate overwhelm whatever holding costs (property taxes) that are usually covered by leasing?
Also, in Texas, property is much more spread out and vacant property is never a good idea. In NYC where each property is on top of the other, its not that big of an issue. Just something to think about.
There's a theory backed by decent evidence that a lot of commercial property in NYC that has perpetual "for rent" signs in them are not actually for rent. They are commercial buildings owned by foreign entities as a way to "park" cash in a relatively safe manner. These entities don't need the cash for 5-10 years and are willing to forego earning a premium on the funds (by leasing them out) to stay in relative anonymity. Maybe its for nefarious purposes, but then again, maybe not. Either way, they'll take the increase in property value when they sell in a few years as their sole return on investment. For some reason, Swiss accounts won't do. Maybe they need some sort of legitimacy in the US.
Now, with that said, Texas is way different than NYC. Property taxes make something like this much tougher. Plus, the example here is residential. So this is almost certainly not what's happening in this case. However, I post this to all but wonder: is this tactic going to arrive here at some point? Will the market value increases of real estate overwhelm whatever holding costs (property taxes) that are usually covered by leasing?
Also, in Texas, property is much more spread out and vacant property is never a good idea. In NYC where each property is on top of the other, its not that big of an issue. Just something to think about.
Rather live in DFW, CS is in a pretty area and a good base for a CO visit (have stayed at the Broadmoor several times over the years) but overall it's a dirty town and there is a reason the prices there are cheap.knoxtom said:Baba Ganoush said:Red Pear Luke said:Teacher_Ag said:
We sold our home in the Panhandle and relocated to McKinney in 2020. Super unlucky timing.
Any luck on finding anything yet? Hoping for good things for y'all, but the Prosper area is a booger bear right now.
Saw this listing today for $1M and I, as both a local and realtor, am flabbergasted at the asking price of almost $300/sf for a 3bed/3bath. No pool or anything.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/621-Sunbury-Ln-Prosper-TX-75078/125235861_zpid
Are you freaking kidding me? That house is right up the road from me. A cool $1 mil for 3/3? Glad I moved up here in 2010.
Also an acquaintance was looking to make a back up offer on this. The realtor said it was under contract for $150k over asking.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1421-Bridgewater-Blvd-Celina-TX-75009/242110469_zpid/
The price on the house in prosper just blows me away. Why would anyone pay a million to live in a generic home in Prosper. Especially when 99% of homeowners there have a LONG commute.
Colorado used to be expensive, DFW has blown right past it. Here is the closest comp in my neighborhood to that prosper home, even though they really aren't comparable. And when you look at actual payments (given the insane Texas property taxes) the DFW home costs 2000-2500 more a month.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/665-Paisley-Dr-Colorado-Springs-CO-80906/80397727_zpid/
Which would you rather live in?
Results of a recent listing post offers, listing was at a very competitive price point - $390k. I think the 8 cash offers (and 1 of them not being chosen) is the most surprising part. *Not my listing, not my buyer
I am looking to relocate to North Dallas for work, and the housing situation up there is hard to wrap my head around. Is this just the new norm for housing in the area? Bite the bullet with the understanding that things will continue to appreciate with all of the population growth? At what point does inventory return to more reasonable levels?
Not any time soon with all the folks moving in.Quote:
At what point does inventory return to more reasonable levels?
Never.coastalAg said:
At what point does inventory return to more reasonable levels?
Homebuilders can't keep up, and its my understanding they still aren't building houses as fast as they were pre-2008. Even if they did, the newest inventory is way out there distance wise.
Because rates were so low for so long, many folks kept the house they were moving out of and became real estate investors that wouldn't have in the past.
Combine those factors with all the investment banks buying up inventory along with the 100-200k people or more actually moving the metroplex each year and its a recipe for high single family home prices.
Thats kind of what I figured. I guess the answer is to just go for it before interest rates get too much higher.
I would say its more of the current macro-economic trends being exacerbated in a market where they were existing before the Pandemic.coastalAg said:
I am looking to relocate to North Dallas for work, and the housing situation up there is hard to wrap my head around. Is this just the new norm for housing in the area? Bite the bullet with the understanding that things will continue to appreciate with all of the population growth? At what point does inventory return to more reasonable levels?
North Dallas - specifically Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, Prosper (and now Celina) has been gang busters the last few years because it's newer houses, relatively cheap housing (pre-pandemic) with all the suburb drippings for growing families (shopping, daycares, great schools). The growth out there is just strong in general because of the corporate relocations (Toyota HQ, JPM has back office support staff, tons of other large corporations) and number of jobs is bountiful. So I would say yes - it's pretty normal.
Inventory wont return in mass droves for a few reasons.... Rising Interest Rates (whos giving up a 2.75% interest rate unless they have to?), Higher prices on homes (sell your home for a premium and give it right back on another house) and continued supply chain issues (can't get parts, garage doors, or brick on time). So many people are waiting on the sidelines with cash and desires to buy a house. Any dip will be pounced on. Builders in the area can't keep up (some waitlists for communities and spec homes is hundreds of names long).
Removing the realtor hat for a second and speaking personally as a homeowner off the DNT in Celina - I am pretty confident in the belief that things will continue to appreciate as long as Texas remains job/corporation friendly and we see continued population growth. We have tons of people moving into the new houses near us from Oregon, California, New York, North Dakota, DC, etc. That influx plus whatever happens with local jobs/job growth should continue to provide stability for the area. In the event of a recession or something similar, there may be some lack of appreciation or depreciation, but this area should hold value well.
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Did some pretend apartment hunting online this last weekend just to do a quick cost/benefit analysis if we sold our house, pocketed equity, and rented to try and cut some housing costs. We are pushing 50 with no kids so it could make sense for us to lose the burdens of house upkeep and move closer in - like Uptown area.
Lol. Rents are worse. My monthly ownership TCO is roughly equivalent to a 1 bedroom from around 1000 to 1300 sq ft. F that. I'll stick to the headaches for now. We wouldn't do it unless we could get a good view, primo walking distance to everything, while cutting monthly expenses by at least $1,500 to $2,000 a month and that ain't happening judging by my quick scan.
Lol. Rents are worse. My monthly ownership TCO is roughly equivalent to a 1 bedroom from around 1000 to 1300 sq ft. F that. I'll stick to the headaches for now. We wouldn't do it unless we could get a good view, primo walking distance to everything, while cutting monthly expenses by at least $1,500 to $2,000 a month and that ain't happening judging by my quick scan.
Seems like I should sell my acre here in Lakewood and just hang it all up.
I've wondered this as a home owner myself over the past year. Realistically, I am not sure the growth rate is sustainable without (a) more water (we aren't building more reservoirs), and (b) low intererst rate mortgages being accessible for most.coastalAg said:
I am looking to relocate to North Dallas for work, and the housing situation up there is hard to wrap my head around. Is this just the new norm for housing in the area? Bite the bullet with the understanding that things will continue to appreciate with all of the population growth? At what point does inventory return to more reasonable levels?
I think the issue is that in the next year interest rates on a 30 year will probably be over 8 percent, and the big expansion up north that is forecast (gunther etc) is still dependant on Lake Lavon basically (can't get water from Ray Roberts/Lewisville there).
There will ultimately be a contraction, and the folks on arms etc. (yes, they are out there, DFW is full of 30K/year millionaires), will panic first.
Just my 2 cents. Feel free to disregard.
If you want to sell to a good Ag at well below market value, I'm your man.
Bois d'Arc is not quite a year old and supplies McKinney and surrounding area
https://boisdarclake.org/
https://boisdarclake.org/
Yeah and there was the pipeline built for that but it took 20 years and it really won't solve the supply needs for NTMWD. Again, I'd be happy to be wrong but lavon has been low for 20 years each summer basically, and I think it is going to be an increasing issue.
GAC06 said:
Bois d'Arc is not quite a year old and supplies McKinney and surrounding area
https://boisdarclake.org/
I think another lake in Fannin County is being built now too.
Actually, this is happening right now.nortex97 said:I've wondered this as a home owner myself over the past year. Realistically, I am not sure the growth rate is sustainable without (a) more water (we aren't building more reservoirs), and (b) low intererst rate mortgages being accessible for most.coastalAg said:
I am looking to relocate to North Dallas for work, and the housing situation up there is hard to wrap my head around. Is this just the new norm for housing in the area? Bite the bullet with the understanding that things will continue to appreciate with all of the population growth? At what point does inventory return to more reasonable levels?
I think the issue is that in the next year interest rates on a 30 year will probably be over 8 percent, and the big expansion up north that is forecast (gunther etc) is still dependant on Lake Lavon basically (can't get water from Ray Roberts/Lewisville there).
There will ultimately be a contraction, and the folks on arms etc. (yes, they are out there, DFW is full of 30K/year millionaires), will panic first.
Just my 2 cents. Feel free to disregard.
I want to believe/learn. Where is a substantive new reservoir happening? Do you believe the NTMWD will be able to accommodate a 50% population growth rate by 2050 based on present plans?
Some smart rich guys (Pickens/Buffet types) have been buying water rights for 30+ years in Oklahoma/West Texas etc. it seems to me for a reason. Wichita Falls/Lubbock/Amarillo are already basically at defcon 5 for several years. The cotton farmers know it is coming, too.
I'm a Frisco homeowner with a decent size pool, fwiw, and I just don't want to find out in 10 years/before I sell that this is a liability, so I hope I am wrong. That's my timeframe, basically.
Some smart rich guys (Pickens/Buffet types) have been buying water rights for 30+ years in Oklahoma/West Texas etc. it seems to me for a reason. Wichita Falls/Lubbock/Amarillo are already basically at defcon 5 for several years. The cotton farmers know it is coming, too.
I'm a Frisco homeowner with a decent size pool, fwiw, and I just don't want to find out in 10 years/before I sell that this is a liability, so I hope I am wrong. That's my timeframe, basically.
There are actually two new ones: Bois d'Arc and Lake Ralph Hall.nortex97 said:
I want to believe/learn. Where is a substantive new reservoir happening? Do you believe the NTMWD will be able to accommodate a 50% population growth rate by 2050 based on present plans?
Some smart rich guys (Pickens/Buffet types) have been buying water rights for 30+ years in Oklahoma/West Texas etc. it seems to me for a reason. Wichita Falls/Lubbock/Amarillo are already basically at defcon 5 for several years. The cotton farmers know it is coming, too.
I'm a Frisco homeowner with a decent size pool, fwiw, and I just don't want to find out in 10 years/before I sell that this is a liability, so I hope I am wrong. That's my timeframe, basically.
From 2019: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/04/19/new-texas-reservoir-filling-water/
The first started filling back then and RH starts filling in 2024 assuming they are on schedule. Probably a good bet they aren't.
You can find the updates for Ralph Hall here: https://lakeralphhall.com/project-updatesYouBet said:There are actually two new ones: Bois d'Arc and Lake Ralph Hall.nortex97 said:
I want to believe/learn. Where is a substantive new reservoir happening? Do you believe the NTMWD will be able to accommodate a 50% population growth rate by 2050 based on present plans?
Some smart rich guys (Pickens/Buffet types) have been buying water rights for 30+ years in Oklahoma/West Texas etc. it seems to me for a reason. Wichita Falls/Lubbock/Amarillo are already basically at defcon 5 for several years. The cotton farmers know it is coming, too.
I'm a Frisco homeowner with a decent size pool, fwiw, and I just don't want to find out in 10 years/before I sell that this is a liability, so I hope I am wrong. That's my timeframe, basically.
From 2019: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/04/19/new-texas-reservoir-filling-water/
The first started filling back then and RH starts filling in 2024 assuming they are on schedule. Probably a good bet they aren't.
One thing I found interesting from Bois d'Arc was that the water delivery timeline didn't slip much even with Covid impacts. Feb 2019 update with timeline, Dec 2021 report with updated timeline. Gives me hope for the 4Q2024 Ralph Hall timeline.
Update on home I launched this thread with in OP....the weird ass realty company they started with has been replaced with a reputable, known company I've seen around the area. It's now off market and "Coming Soon".
Curious what new price will be. Clearly, the owners realized what they were doing was dumbassery of the highest order.
Curious what new price will be. Clearly, the owners realized what they were doing was dumbassery of the highest order.
Ag CPA said:Rather live in DFW, CS is in a pretty area and a good base for a CO visit (have stayed at the Broadmoor several times over the years) but overall it's a dirty town and there is a reason the prices there are cheap.knoxtom said:Baba Ganoush said:Red Pear Luke said:Teacher_Ag said:
We sold our home in the Panhandle and relocated to McKinney in 2020. Super unlucky timing.
Any luck on finding anything yet? Hoping for good things for y'all, but the Prosper area is a booger bear right now.
Saw this listing today for $1M and I, as both a local and realtor, am flabbergasted at the asking price of almost $300/sf for a 3bed/3bath. No pool or anything.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/621-Sunbury-Ln-Prosper-TX-75078/125235861_zpid
Are you freaking kidding me? That house is right up the road from me. A cool $1 mil for 3/3? Glad I moved up here in 2010.
Also an acquaintance was looking to make a back up offer on this. The realtor said it was under contract for $150k over asking.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1421-Bridgewater-Blvd-Celina-TX-75009/242110469_zpid/
The price on the house in prosper just blows me away. Why would anyone pay a million to live in a generic home in Prosper. Especially when 99% of homeowners there have a LONG commute.
Colorado used to be expensive, DFW has blown right past it. Here is the closest comp in my neighborhood to that prosper home, even though they really aren't comparable. And when you look at actual payments (given the insane Texas property taxes) the DFW home costs 2000-2500 more a month.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/665-Paisley-Dr-Colorado-Springs-CO-80906/80397727_zpid/
Which would you rather live in?
Springs is not dirty compared to DFW. If you really believe DFW is cleaner then you go swim in the Trinity and I will swim in Fountain creek.
Heck, just drive into DFW from the Wichita Falls side and look at the giant brown dome visible 80% of the days.
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