I have never seen a market like this... very limited inventory and prices keep rising.

Why haven't any local (Texags experts) or otherwise recognized national experts gave any warning /prognostication in the past. None I can recall.

Now, the local tax district will go berzerk with an upcoming appraisal. I suspect a significant number of long-time residents may be priced out of their homes due to continual raising taxes.

New housing stocks are not immune. Not because builders are greedy but the cost of material keeps rising too...Why? Is this all due to Biden printing money? Surely inflation can't be too far behind?

kicking myself for not buying something 3-4 years ago...heck, even last year...Actually, I did try but every time, I found something and I checked with the realtor, the house had a contract. Not once but multiple times.

I hear it all the time, but supposedly the entire state of California is moving to town, which I think has had the biggest affect on the housing market. Throw in COVID, low interest rates and more (desirable) raw land than just about anywhere (new builds)...than yea, it's tough out there.

Yeah, I had a bid last year to replace my fence. It was around $5,000. I put it off.

I asked the guy to rebid it this weekend and he came back with $6,700 and a three month wait. Welp.

It is like 1970's all over again. Except this time the banks are not doing savings accounts with interest rates in the teens.

Well..we didn't even get our house to market before getting an offer we can't refuse in Denton County.

We bought in 2011 for $92.50 sq. ft.

We have sold in 2021 for $184.75 sq. ft.

If we sold last year it would have been about $150.00 sq. ft.

The last 5 to 6 months have been rediculous for our market.

_lefraud_ said:

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I hear it all the time, but supposedly the entire state of California is moving to town, which I think has had the biggest affect on the housing market. Throw in COVID, low interest rates and more (desirable) raw land than just about anywhere (new builds)...than yea, it's tough out there.

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Anecdotal data point....had lunch with doctor friend of ours last weekend. She's opened up practice for new patients and said all of her new patients are from California, Washington, and Pennsylvania.

Our house increased by $50k on Zillow overnight last week. I'm not sure what the +- accuracy is on their price assumptions but that's bonkers.

Here's a good article on the commercial side, but it's relevant to residential as well. Supply chain is all sorts of ****ed...

Construction's Woes Start To Hit This Surging Real Estate Sector

YouBet said:

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Our house increased by $50k on Zillow overnight last week. I'm not sure what the +- accuracy is on their price assumptions but that's bonkers.

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I signed up with a builder in November and they (my friend is one of the regional managers) told me that I couldn't get the same house I'm building now if I gave them $125K more. Insane market.

And to think we were looking at moving into a larger house in the next year. Almost sounds like they'll come back down then, if it's more of a supply issue. Let the market go crazy and see if we can either get something temporary, or just ride it out.

Decay said:

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And to think we were looking at moving into a larger house in the next year. Almost sounds like they'll come back down then, if it's more of a supply issue. Let the market go crazy and see if we can either get something temporary, or just ride it out.

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There might be some foreclosures out there for you to grab in next couple years...my buddy tells me that there's all sorts of people buying $600K+ houses putting 1-3% down. Said it feels like 2008 again.

YouBet said:

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agcrock2005 said:

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Decay said:

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And to think we were looking at moving into a larger house in the next year. Almost sounds like they'll come back down then, if it's more of a supply issue. Let the market go crazy and see if we can either get something temporary, or just ride it out.

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There might be some foreclosures out there for you to grab in next couple years...my buddy tells me that there's all sorts of people buying $600K+ houses putting 1-3% down. Said it feels like 2008 again.

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Not sure that's correct. Lending rules tightened up after 2008 and I just read an article a few weeks ago (it's actually posted on here somewhere) that that kind of practice really doesn't happen anymore.

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False. There are many loan programs out there allowing it. 2008 is happening all over again, we're just lucky enough to be in a very hot market so we're insulated somewhat. Here's article on the subject. "Yet all major loan types available today allow for a downpayment of less than 5 percent."

Mortgages That Don't Require A 20% Downpayment

agcrock2005 said:

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YouBet said:

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agcrock2005 said:

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Decay said:

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And to think we were looking at moving into a larger house in the next year. Almost sounds like they'll come back down then, if it's more of a supply issue. Let the market go crazy and see if we can either get something temporary, or just ride it out.

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There might be some foreclosures out there for you to grab in next couple years...my buddy tells me that there's all sorts of people buying $600K+ houses putting 1-3% down. Said it feels like 2008 again.

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Not sure that's correct. Lending rules tightened up after 2008 and I just read an article a few weeks ago (it's actually posted on here somewhere) that that kind of practice really doesn't happen anymore.

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False. There are many loan programs out there allowing it. 2008 is happening all over again, we're just lucky enough to be in a very hot market so we're insulated somewhat. Here's article on the subject. "Yet all major loan types available today allow for a downpayment of less than 5 percent."

Mortgages That Don't Require A 20% Downpayment

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That is 100% opposite of article I read. I'm going to try and find it.

Fascinating.

Clarification: article I read did not comment on the loan types available, but just that the factors that caused the 2008 crisis mostly did not exist for this current bubble. Different factors causing similar *potential* result.

Yeah it's pretty scary. My buddy (oversees hundreds of home sales a year in DFW) said the same actors that allowed for this last time are still doing the same crap but calling it something different. Not good for all of the people taking the risk. One little hiccup in their jobs could result in them getting the boot.

Anyone know what it would cost to build a house (per square foot) in Fort Worth/Benbrook area right now?

YouBet said:

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Our house increased by $50k on Zillow overnight last week. I'm not sure what the +- accuracy is on their price assumptions but that's bonkers.

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I don't put a lot in Zillow estimates, but was curious and had a +$50k on my residence and a +$45k on my rental over the last 30 days. I have no intentions on selling my primary, but my rental may hit the market when my tenants move out. A house nearly identical to it and less than 1/2 mile away just listed for $124/ft more than I paid this summer.

In my zip, there a grand total of 4 houses for sale under $750k, and 1 is for lot value. This is pure insanity.

I'm aware of an investor that's picked up a dozen or so properties from HP/UP/PH/Meadows/Devonshire areas over the last year. He's at least $16MM deep in these 12 properties (just based on DCAD, no telling what cash prices were). Some he's flipping, some he's renting. He was saying there is a niche market right now for affluent down-sizers who are cashing in their equity but don't know what they want to do for their next stop. So renting a 3,000 square foot house for $5,000-7,000/month that's nice, but not great, is an easy solution while they figure it out. Also see that he's got the hard corner of Armstrong and Douglas that he leveled and it is pending for nearly $5MM.

Stive said:

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Anyone know what it would cost to build a house (per square foot) in Fort Worth/Benbrook area right now?

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The builders don't even know how much it's going to cost so they're jacking their prices up. If you decide to build in this mess then make sure they don't have that clause in their contract that allows for them to come back to you during the build process, if their prices go up, and demand you either give them more money, or they can give you back your deposit and sell it to someone else. There are builders exercising that clause in DFW right now.

FYI, the builders don't even know when they're going to get a lot of their products right now either so really jacked up time to build. There are houses in the neighborhood I'm building that have been framed for 2 weeks and they aren't getting windows for it until end of June. They were ordered a couple months ago. They're saying PVC is getting scarce as well. Woods hard to get. Concrete is hard to get due to some plant in Midlothian having an explosion (didn't hear about this but the concrete guy that poured my slab told me about it), List goes on and on. Our house was supposed to be done in June and our rental term is up in October. We were worried about getting out of it early, but now we're hopeful we might be able to do a month-to-month in case it's not ready by then.

This would be for a house my FIL is building/contracting himself. He used toe be a GC but has been out of the game for the most part for 7-8 years due to health. They're listing their house this week, moving into a rental that they own and starting to build a new place this summer. He doesn't have the sub relationships that he used to have but still thinks he can build his new place for 135/ft. I think he's delusional and that his 76 year old brain is stuck in the past, but honestly have no idea.

One of the things to look out for is doing a 2nd mortgage to cover the down-payment requirement for underwriting the 1st. That used to happen. 2007 and before a lot.

Other than special governmental backed programs to help low income folks, ive not seen loans like that.

The markets that were really hurt in 2008 had loans available up to 110% of the appraised value often without verification of income. Also not sure if mortgage companies are doing adjustable rates or interest only loans anymore, hopefully not.

752bro4 said:

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YouBet said:

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Our house increased by $50k on Zillow overnight last week. I'm not sure what the +- accuracy is on their price assumptions but that's bonkers.

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I don't put a lot in Zillow estimates, but was curious and had a +$50k on my residence and a +$45k on my rental over the last 30 days. I have no intentions on selling my primary, but my rental may hit the market when my tenants move out. A house nearly identical to it and less than 1/2 mile away just listed for $124/ft more than I paid this summer.

In my zip, there a grand total of 4 houses for sale under $750k, and 1 is for lot value. This is pure insanity.

I'm aware of an investor that's picked up a dozen or so properties from HP/UP/PH/Meadows/Devonshire areas over the last year. He's at least $16MM deep in these 12 properties (just based on DCAD, no telling what cash prices were). Some he's flipping, some he's renting. He was saying there is a niche market right now for affluent down-sizers who are cashing in their equity but don't know what they want to do for their next stop. So renting a 3,000 square foot house for $5,000-7,000/month that's nice, but not great, is an easy solution while they figure it out. Also see that he's got the hard corner of Armstrong and Douglas that he leveled and it is pending for nearly $5MM.

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All the houses in our area are getting torn down and $1.5-2M homes going up. Willow area near ESD.

Stive said:

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This would be for a house my FIL is building/contracting himself. He used toe be a GC but has been out of the game for the most part for 7-8 years due to health. They're listing their house this week, moving into a rental that they own and starting to build a new place this summer. He doesn't have the sub relationships that he used to have but still thinks he can build his new place for 135/ft. I think he's delusional and that his 76 year old brain is stuck in the past, but honestly have no idea.

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Yeah, don't think that's feasible right now just due to increased raw materials and labor costs. Demand for the contractors is insane too so they're going to go to highest bidder. Maybe things will start to normalize by end of the year but who knows.

agcrock2005 said:

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Stive said:

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This would be for a house my FIL is building/contracting himself. He used toe be a GC but has been out of the game for the most part for 7-8 years due to health. They're listing their house this week, moving into a rental that they own and starting to build a new place this summer. He doesn't have the sub relationships that he used to have but still thinks he can build his new place for 135/ft. I think he's delusional and that his 76 year old brain is stuck in the past, but honestly have no idea.

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Yeah, don't think that's feasible right now just due to increased raw materials and labor costs. Demand for the contractors is insane too so they're going to go to highest bidder. Maybe things will start to normalize by end of the year but who knows.

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Not feasible at that price? Or not feasible at all?

Stive said:

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agcrock2005 said:

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Stive said:

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This would be for a house my FIL is building/contracting himself. He used toe be a GC but has been out of the game for the most part for 7-8 years due to health. They're listing their house this week, moving into a rental that they own and starting to build a new place this summer. He doesn't have the sub relationships that he used to have but still thinks he can build his new place for 135/ft. I think he's delusional and that his 76 year old brain is stuck in the past, but honestly have no idea.

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Yeah, don't think that's feasible right now just due to increased raw materials and labor costs. Demand for the contractors is insane too so they're going to go to highest bidder. Maybe things will start to normalize by end of the year but who knows.

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Not feasible at that price? Or not feasible at all?

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It might be feasible to build, but not at that price most likely. The supply chain is so messed up and workers are in such high demand that it would be hard for your FIL to compete with the folks that are in the business still, unless he over paid for labor. Just make sure he knows that this market is nothing like anything he ever experienced when he was building. The good news however is it sounds like he's got a place to live while he waits out the storm.

We're building a house in Heath and about to put our current home on the market in Anna. Luckily we started the new build before the market went crazy. Now the base price on our current build (if we were to have waited until now) has gone up almost $50k. Our realtor is now telling us we will probably get $30k+ over what we were going to original list our current home for. My only concern now is mortgage rates going up before we can lock one in.

fooz said:

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We're building a house in Heath and about to put our current home on the market in Anna. Luckily we started the new build before the market went crazy. Now the base price on our current build (if we were to have waited until now) has gone up almost $50k. Our realtor is now telling us we will probably get $30k+ over what we were going to original list our current home for. My only concern now is mortgage rates going up before we can lock one in.

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I too am slightly worried about this, but they're still at historical lows and there's no way they're going to skyrocket up. They might go up some but we're sitting pretty having signed on the dotted line before this madness began. I only wish I hadn't sold my other house first. You did it right! I should have held onto it. Congrats.

It kind of feels like a bubble.