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Has the flu started to spread in BCS yet?

6,018 Views | 62 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by BryanHigh95
Counterpoint
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AG
dubi said:

EliteElectric said:

We get ours mid September every year


Since they last about 6 months, I usually delay until mid October to protection into the spring.


My doctor told me that flu shots basically last forever...against the exact strains they were developed for. They only lose their effectiveness so quickly because the flu mutates so much. And since the shot formulation is only updated once a year, it's better to get it when it comes out, because the loss of effectiveness doesn't come from how long it's been in your body, and you're not going to get an "updated" shot if you wait a few months.

I would love to hear other MD opinions on this!
dubi
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Quote:

My doctor told me that flu shots basically last forever...against the exact strains they were developed for.

https://historyofvaccines.org/blog/timing-your-flu-shot-science-behind-when-get-vaccinated/

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the optimal time for most people to receive their flu vaccine is during September and October. This timing represents a careful balance between getting protected before flu season ramps up and ensuring your immunity doesn't fade before the season ends.

Think of your flu vaccine like a coat of paint on your house. Apply it too early, and it might start to peel before winter's harsh weather arrives. Apply it too late, and the storm might hit before you're fully protected. The CDC's recommendation aims to hit that perfect middle ground.

Flu season in the United States typically begins in October, peaks between December and February (with February being the most common peak month), and can extend through May. Your body needs about two weeks after vaccination to build up enough protective antibodies, which is why getting vaccinated by the end of October gives you the best chance of being protected when flu activity increases.

The Problem with Getting Vaccinated Too Early
While it might seem logical to get your flu shot as soon as it's available in July or August, research shows this strategy can backfire for most people. [url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7182205/][/url]Multiple studies have found that flu vaccine effectiveness wanes over time,, declining by approximately 8-9% per month after vaccination.

Imagine your immune system's protection as a rechargeable battery. When you first get vaccinated, the battery is at 100%. But as months pass, that battery slowly drains. If you get vaccinated in July, by the time flu season peaks in February, your protection might be significantly diminished.

Research from the CDC shows this waning effect is particularly pronounced in older adults, with some studies showing a 10-11% decline per month in people 65 and older. This is why health officials specifically advise against early vaccination for this age group unless there's concern they won't be able to get vaccinated later.
Rex Racer
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AggiePhil said:

Isn't there a large vaccine/biosynth industry here in College Station? Are those people working on a better flu vaccine??

Per Gemini:

Yes, College Station is home to one of North America's largest biomanufacturing hubs. Located right in the Brazos Valley BioCorridor, the facility anchors a massive public-private initiative designed to advance biopharmaceuticals and rapid-response vaccine production.

The Local Facilities & Operations
  • FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies: Operates a major single-use biomanufacturing site in Lake Walk. They function as a Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO), meaning they partner with biotech and pharma companies worldwide to manufacture complex therapeutics, viral vectors, gene therapies, and biological products.
  • CIADM Roots: The complex originally grew out of the U.S. government's Center for Innovation in Advanced Development and Manufacturing (CIADM) initiative. Established in partnership with Texas A&M, the state, and federal agencies, its initial mission was to guarantee emergency surge capacity for pandemic influenza and biodefense vaccines.
Are standard or improved flu shots being made here?
Not as a primary consumer production line for seasonal flu shots, but the research and technical infrastructure directly overlap with next-generation vaccine platforms.

  • Advanced Platforms over Traditional Eggs: Standard seasonal flu vaccines are typically manufactured using traditional egg-based or cell-culture methods in dedicated global plants. The College Station facilities specialize in high-tech cell culture, viral vector technologies, recombinant proteins, and bioprocessing systems.
  • Universal & Next-Gen Vaccine Research: Nearby researchers at Texas A&M and allied startup facilities actively work on advanced immunology, broader "universal" strain coverage, and rapid-response platform technology. However, the commercial manufacturing side in College Station is primarily contract-based, producing specialized therapeutics and vaccines for external partner clients around the globe.
dubi
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Quote:

Vaccine effectiveness appears to decrease with time since vaccination. The odds of influenza in remote vaccinees vs recent vaccinees increased by about 16% per 28 days. Influenza vaccination may be more effective if received closer to the start of the influenza season.

The flu shot effectiveness wanes 16% per month, so at 6 months the loss of effectiveness is at 96% (6mo x 16%).

Source: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7182205/

Quote:

Compared with persons vaccinated 14 to 41 days prior to being tested, persons vaccinated 42 to 69 days prior to being tested had 1.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.55) times the odds of testing positive for any influenza. The odds ratio (OR) increased linearly by approximately 16% for each additional 28 days since vaccination. The OR was 2.06 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.51) for persons vaccinated 154 or more days prior to being tested. No evidence of waning was found for RSV.

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BryanHigh95
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I did an Uber ride, and my passenger was a young man who had pneumonia. The doctors couldn't figure out where it was coming from. He tested negative for Covid and for the flu, he said. I picked him up at the hospital. Thankfully, five days later I have not gotten sick.

It makes you wonder now with all the news out of Russia!
KidDoc
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AG


Very very early season.

Flu season could kick off 'incredibly' early what scientists are watching | Nature
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
dubi
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AG
Kiddoc,

Your thoughts on RSV vaccine for seniors? Mom is 91 and healthy; should she get it?
trouble
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AG
My answer is yes. I advised MIL to get it a couple years ago
dubi
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trouble said:

My answer is yes. I advised MIL to get it a couple years ago

I respect your opinion too! Walgreens offered RSV, but I dislike multiple vaccines at once so will take mom back in a week or 2.

Charpie
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trouble said:

My answer is yes. I advised MIL to get it a couple years ago

I got my RSV, flu, covid and pneumonia all on the same day. I didn't die! But I can read minds now
maroon barchetta
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Charpie said:

trouble said:

My answer is yes. I advised MIL to get it a couple years ago

I got my RSV, flu, covid and pneumonia all on the same day. I didn't die! But I can read minds now


Great.

Staff can ban us before we even post.
KidDoc
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dubi said:

Kiddoc,

Your thoughts on RSV vaccine for seniors? Mom is 91 and healthy; should she get it?

No idea really but the data supporting them is pretty dang strong. I would get it.


From OpenEvidence AI:




RSV protein subunit vaccines (GSK Arexvy/RSVPreF3+AS01 and Pfizer Abrysvo/RSVpreF) have demonstrated moderate-to-high efficacy against RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) in adults 60 years, with prelicensure trial efficacy ranging roughly 6783% and strong real-world effectiveness against hospitalization.[url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37471262][1][/url][url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.34788?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][2][/url][url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41771131][3][/url]

Prelicensure trial efficacy (first season, 60 years)

- RSVPreF3+AS01 (Arexvy): 82.6% (95% CI, 57.9%94.1%) against RSV-associated LRTD.[url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.34788?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][2][/url]

- RSVpreF (Abrysvo): 66.7% (95% CI, 28.8%85.8%) against LRTD with 2 symptoms and 85.7% (95% CI, 32.0%98.7%) with 3 symptoms; 62.1% against any acute symptomatic RSV including URTD.[url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.34788?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][2][/url][url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2024.7406?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][4][/url]

- Durability: In the Abrysvo phase 3 trial, efficacy against LRTD with 3 symptoms was 88.9% at end of season 1 and 77.8% at end of season 2, indicating durable but modestly waning protection over two seasons, with robust neutralizing responses across age strata (6069, 7079, 80) and chronic conditions.[url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39928572][5][/url]

Pooled/meta-analytic efficacy (ACP rapid review)

Protein subunit vaccines in older adults probably reduce RSV-related hospitalization (VE 83.3%; 95% CI, 42.9%96.9%; moderate certainty) and severe RSV illness (VE 94.1%; 95% CI, 62.4%99.9%; moderate certainty), but have no effect on all-cause mortality (RR 1.07; 95% CI, 0.681.68; high certainty).[url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41771131][3][/url]

Real-world effectiveness

Postlicensure observational studies show vaccine effectiveness against RSV-associated hospitalization ranging from 75% (95% CI, 50%87%) to 82% (95% CI, 69%89%) in the first season, with similar protection across both products, across ages 6074 and 75 years, and in immunocompromised adults and those with end-stage renal disease.[url=https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7332e1][6][/url][url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2024.15775?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][7][/url] Effectiveness has also been demonstrated in nursing home residents and against RSV-associated ED/urgent care visits and thromboembolic events.[url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/10.1001/jamainternmed.2026.3841?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][8][/url]

Safety context

Serious adverse events did not differ from placebo (RR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.751.23).[url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41771131][3][/url] However, postlicensure FDA self-controlled analyses raised a possible small excess risk of Guillain-Barr syndrome within 42 days (adjusted IRR 2.30 for Arexvy, 4.48 for Abrysvo; both with wide, non-significant CIs) among Medicare beneficiaries 65 years.[url=https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7332e1][6][/url]

The cumulative-incidence curve below from a recent RSVpreF randomized trial illustrates the early and sustained separation underlying the 83.3% effectiveness against RSV-related hospitalization in older adults.

Figure 2 Hospitalization for RSV-Related Respiratory Tract Disease. Time-to-event curves for the primary end point according to trial group are shown. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated by subtracting the incidence rate ratio for end-point events in the RSVpreF group as compared with the control group from 1 and multiplying by 100 to obtain a percentage. The inset displays the same data with an expanded y axis.

Current ACIP guidance (updated June 2024) recommends a single dose for all adults 75 years and for adults 6074 years at increased risk of severe RSV disease.[url=https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2024.15775?utm_source=openevidence&utm_medium=referral][7][/url][url=https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.19243][10][/url]


Would you like to explore how the Moderna mRNA RSV vaccine compares to the protein subunit vaccines in older adults?

References
[ol]
  • Use of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines in Older Adults: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2023. Melgar M, Britton A, Roper LE, et al. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2023;72(29):793-801. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7229a4.
  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine Effectiveness Among US Older Adults, 2023-2024 Season. Lu Y, Smith ER, McEvoy R, et al. JAMA Network Open. 2026;9(9):e2634788. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.34788.
  • Efficacy, Comparative Effectiveness, and Harm of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines in Adults Who Are Not Pregnant or Immunocompromised: A Rapid Review for the American College of Physicians. Moser ITK, Dobrescu AI, Sommer I, et al. Annals of Internal Medicine. 2026;179(5):685-695. doi:10.7326/ANNALS-25-05536.
  • Therapies to Decrease Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Illness. Scruggs-Wodkowski EA, Malani PN, Linder KA. JAMA. 2024;331(24):2127-2128. doi:10.1001/jama.2024.7406.
  • Efficacy, Immunogenicity, and Safety of the Bivalent Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Prefusion F Vaccine in Older Adults Over 2 RSV Seasons. Walsh EE, Eiras D, Woodside J, et al. Clinical Infectious Diseases : An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2026;81(6):e680-e689. doi:10.1093/cid/ciaf061.
  • Use of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines in Adults Aged 60 Years: Updated Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2024. Britton A, Roper LE, Kotton CN, et al. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2024;73(32):696-702. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7332e1.
  • RSV Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalization Among US Adults 60 Years and Older. Surie D, Self WH, Zhu Y, et al. JAMA. 2024;332(13):1105-1107. doi:10.1001/jama.2024.15775.
  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine Effectiveness in Medicare Beneficiaries Residing in Nursing Homes. Wiegand RE, Sung HM, Zhang Y, et al. JAMA Internal Medicine. 2026;:2853166. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2026.3841.
  • RSV Prefusion F Vaccine for Prevention of Hospitalization in Older Adults. Lassen MCH, Johansen ND, Christensen SH, et al. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2026;394(2):138-151. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2509810.
  • Vaccinations in older adults: Optimization, strategies, and latest guidelines. Pangilinan AR, Brangman SA, Gravenstein S, Schmader K, Kuchel GA. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 2025;73(1):20-28. doi:10.1111/jgs.19243.
  • [/ol]
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    Sweet Kitten Feet
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    S
    Got my flu and covid today . Don't think I qualify for rsv even though it kicked my butt harder than covid did.
    MiMi
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    S
    Sweet Kitten Feet said:

    Got my flu and covid today . Don't think I qualify for rsv even though it kicked my butt harder than covid did.

    Who qualifies for an RSV vaccine?

    I know that immunity is improved when COVID and Flu are administered at the same time. Should all other vaccines be staggered (RSV, Shingles)? If so, how long after?

    FYI: over 65
    Tailgate88
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    AG
    I would not do all three. My daughter in her 40s did and it kicked her butt. She was in bed for a day and a half. I would do RSV separately if I were getting them.
    dubi
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    Quote:

    • CDC recommends a single dose of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine for all adults ages 75 and older and adults ages 50-74 at increased risk of severe RSV illness.
    • There are three FDA-licensed RSV vaccines recommended for use in adults ages 50 and older: GSK's Arexvy, Moderna's mResvia, and Pfizer's Abrysvo. There is no preference for which vaccine adults 50 and older should receive.
    • Eligible adults can get an RSV vaccine at any time, but the best time to vaccinate patients is in late summer and early fall before RSV usually starts to spread in the community.
    • The RSV vaccine is not currently an annual vaccine. People who have already received one dose have completed their vaccination and should not receive another dose at this time.
    CDC Link



    My non-medical decision was 2 weeks between shots to have recovery time.
    Charpie
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    AG
    I'm not 65 but I qualified because I have asthma
    CaptTex
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    KidDoc out here doing the lords work.

    Interesting thing about TeleDoc, I've tried them a couple of times and they will never prescribe antibiotics, even with a fever and at one point a sinus infection, they refuse to do so. Wish I could get one of those that will, its convenient to not have to interrupt browsing texags.
    Sweet Kitten Feet
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    CaptTex said:

    KidDoc out here doing the lords work.

    Interesting thing about TeleDoc, I've tried them a couple of times and they will never prescribe antibiotics, even with a fever and at one point a sinus infection, they refuse to do so. Wish I could get one of those that will, its convenient to not have to interrupt browsing texags.


    most sinus infections really don't need antibiotics, right?
    trouble
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    AG
    Probably not. Fluids, rest, treat the symptoms.
    KidDoc
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    AG
    Sweet Kitten Feet said:

    CaptTex said:

    KidDoc out here doing the lords work.

    Interesting thing about TeleDoc, I've tried them a couple of times and they will never prescribe antibiotics, even with a fever and at one point a sinus infection, they refuse to do so. Wish I could get one of those that will, its convenient to not have to interrupt browsing texags.


    most sinus infections really don't need antibiotics, right?


    What I teach and most docs consider a sinus infection is 7+ days of upper resp symptoms that are failing to improve or are worsening. At that point it is highly likely to be bacterial. Luckily (due to vaccines) they are usually wimpy bacteria that can resolve eventually with aggressive irrigation. Younger kids have higher rates of complications and spread and they get them more often due to smaller plumbing and more frequent viral URI rates.

    Now as Strep pneumo vax rates continue to drop we will likely start to see more invasive disease where the basic sinus infection turns into epidural abscess, mastoiditis, etc.

    No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
    Sweet Kitten Feet
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    S
    well that's comforting. I tend to get it each allergy season. zyzal flonase and 2x/day nasal irrigation usually gets me over it quickly
    CaptTex
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    AG
    Yeah I was on day 5 or 6 and it just wouldn't get any better, scheduled an in person appointment and got it squared away.

    I'm probably showing my ignorance but is there a strep throat vaccine?
    KidDoc
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    CaptTex said:

    Yeah I was on day 5 or 6 and it just wouldn't get any better, scheduled an in person appointment and got it squared away.

    I'm probably showing my ignorance but is there a strep throat vaccine?

    Nopes
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    Tailgate88
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    AG
    KidDoc said:

    Sweet Kitten Feet said:

    CaptTex said:

    KidDoc out here doing the lords work.

    Interesting thing about TeleDoc, I've tried them a couple of times and they will never prescribe antibiotics, even with a fever and at one point a sinus infection, they refuse to do so. Wish I could get one of those that will, its convenient to not have to interrupt browsing texags.


    most sinus infections really don't need antibiotics, right?


    What I teach and most docs consider a sinus infection is 7+ days of upper resp symptoms that are failing to improve or are worsening. At that point it is highly likely to be bacterial. Luckily (due to vaccines) they are usually wimpy bacteria that can resolve eventually with aggressive irrigation. Younger kids have higher rates of complications and spread and they get them more often due to smaller plumbing and more frequent viral URI rates.

    Now as Strep pneumo vax rates continue to drop we will likely start to see more invasive disease where the basic sinus infection turns into epidural abscess, mastoiditis, etc.




    What is aggressive irrigation?

    I appreciate your contributions on this forum.
    maroon barchetta
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    Tailgate88 said:

    KidDoc said:

    Sweet Kitten Feet said:

    CaptTex said:

    KidDoc out here doing the lords work.

    Interesting thing about TeleDoc, I've tried them a couple of times and they will never prescribe antibiotics, even with a fever and at one point a sinus infection, they refuse to do so. Wish I could get one of those that will, its convenient to not have to interrupt browsing texags.


    most sinus infections really don't need antibiotics, right?


    What I teach and most docs consider a sinus infection is 7+ days of upper resp symptoms that are failing to improve or are worsening. At that point it is highly likely to be bacterial. Luckily (due to vaccines) they are usually wimpy bacteria that can resolve eventually with aggressive irrigation. Younger kids have higher rates of complications and spread and they get them more often due to smaller plumbing and more frequent viral URI rates.

    Now as Strep pneumo vax rates continue to drop we will likely start to see more invasive disease where the basic sinus infection turns into epidural abscess, mastoiditis, etc.




    What is aggressive irrigation?

    I appreciate your contributions on this forum.


    https://shop.neilmed.com/products/neilmed-hydropulse-neo-neilmed-sinus-rinse-hypertonic-kit-30ct?variant=52781241565547&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&adpos=&scid=scplpshopify_US_14879950274923_52781241565547&sc_intid=shopify_US_14879950274923_52781241565547&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=21818478941&gbraid=0AAAAAD_hXGm9Kmv-ANeEcG1Wityyl-e9M&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlpy-4YfAlwMVlkx_AB2SiiZ9EAQYASABEgIPIvD_BwE

    https://www.vitalitymedical.com/sinupulse-elite.html?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=17719298854&gbraid=0AAAAAD_kCFEp09aTB3tRx5kqpNawhPMW9&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlpy-4YfAlwMVlkx_AB2SiiZ9EAQYBiABEgLprvD_BwE

    I don't know if Kid Doc means aggressive as in frequency, but I have an older model of one of these devices. It's basically a Water Pik for the sinuses. I had terrible ragweed allergies in October when I lived on the coast.

    One October I got my first ever sinus infection and it was killer. Terrible headache to the point I had my boss drive me home. I couldn't have driven. Had a terrible time. Would have paid $500 for one of these gizmos.

    They will flush out your sinuses, at least the upper ones. It isn't a fun experience but sometimes you don't want to wait on antibiotics to handle everything, and this provides more force than a Neti Pot.
    KidDoc
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    AG
    Yup those work as well. I bought a Navage system which works great as well after needing sinus surgery a few years ago.

    https://navage.com/pages/gunk-out?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23508255336&gbraid=0AAAAADgQeqFUq_GCXD2j6383RKIMtCNz6&gclid=CjwKCAjwuczWBhA9EiwAYGgEoVgPYtZ5VsEi6TMy9SE5Lr_k67lhus_ARcNMfZZqVBFJ7doIyLq1VRoC7u4QAvD_BwE
    No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
    BryanHigh95
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    dubi said:

    Wondering about timing on flu shot.


    I worked in the emergency room for three years and every year the flu shot was the wrong strain. I think it's just a money grab.
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