frito bandito said:

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agnerd said:

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Every single person in the state of Texas will have to spend $1,000 on this train for it to break even.

For just the INTEREST on the money it take to build the train, you can build a new runway and terminal at both DFW, and IAH, purchase 20 737s that do nothing but fly back and forth between the two runways, replace the planes every 20 years, and never charge a dollar for a fare. That's for JUST THE INTEREST on the money. Everybody should be angry about how bad the math is on this project and the impending taxpayer bailout.

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You are not comparing apples to apples. High speed rail is a whole new concept, and it is being built literally from the ground up. To make a real cost comparison, purchase the land, build the runways, terminal, hangars, parking and air traffic control systems at your airport. Then train and staff the hundreds of folks that it is going take to make that happen. Pay taxes on the real property, too. Compare those numbers. Then increase the price of jet fuel by a magnitude of three or four, and lets see how the numbers look..

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These are sunk costs and do not figure into the analysis. The correct way to compare is from this point in time going forward. We are comparing projects from their current state, not going back a 80 years. In this comparison, HSR is the much more expensive option.

frito bandito said:

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agnerd said:

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Every single person in the state of Texas will have to spend $1,000 on this train for it to break even.

For just the INTEREST on the money it take to build the train, you can build a new runway and terminal at both DFW, and IAH, purchase 20 737s that do nothing but fly back and forth between the two runways, replace the planes every 20 years, and never charge a dollar for a fare. That's for JUST THE INTEREST on the money. Everybody should be angry about how bad the math is on this project and the impending taxpayer bailout.

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You are not comparing apples to apples. High speed rail is a whole new concept, and it is being built literally from the ground up. To make a real cost comparison, purchase the land, build the runways, terminal, hangars, parking and air traffic control systems at your airport. Then train and staff the hundreds of folks that it is going take to make that happen. Pay taxes on the real property, too. Compare those numbers. Then increase the price of jet fuel by a magnitude of three or four, and lets see how the numbers look..

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doesn't matter. the fact is, thanks to the fact that the airports already exist, they don't have to do all of the capital expenditures HSR requires. imagining a scenario where they had to start from scratch is worthless...they don't.

Bottom line: HSR is a land grab by a private corp., enabled by the state gov't, for a project that is very likely to fail unless subsidized by taxpayers.

On top of that, it is a solution in search of a problem.

High speed rail will be eclipsed in the next 20-30 years. If you can rent a self driving car, or take your own, to take you from Dallas to Houston, door to door, on a highway with a lane dedicated to high speed self driving cars, for half the cost of a ticket, you will.

This project is dead on arrival. Won't get built.

I believe that there is one profitable high speed rail in the world. It's the one in Japan and is run by a private company.

Of course, that company bought the railroad from the Japanese government for a very small price. The company did not have to pay the construction costs, it just needs to cover the operating costs.

frito bandito said:

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agrab86 said:

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frito bandito said:

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agnerd said:

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Every single person in the state of Texas will have to spend $1,000 on this train for it to break even.

For just the INTEREST on the money it take to build the train, you can build a new runway and terminal at both DFW, and IAH, purchase 20 737s that do nothing but fly back and forth between the two runways, replace the planes every 20 years, and never charge a dollar for a fare. That's for JUST THE INTEREST on the money. Everybody should be angry about how bad the math is on this project and the impending taxpayer bailout.

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You are not comparing apples to apples. High speed rail is a whole new concept, and it is being built literally from the ground up. To make a real cost comparison, purchase the land, build the runways, terminal, hangars, parking and air traffic control systems at your airport. Then train and staff the hundreds of folks that it is going take to make that happen. Pay taxes on the real property, too. Compare those numbers. Then increase the price of jet fuel by a magnitude of three or four, and lets see how the numbers look..

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These are sunk costs and do not figure into the analysis. The correct way to compare is from this point in time going forward. We are comparing projects from their current state, not going back a 80 years. In this comparison, HSR is the much more expensive option.

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A capitalized asset is a sunk cost? My comparison is start up to start up. No basis in reality because one is not going to happen. But to compare, you have to compare similar circumstances.

Regardless; airlines and highways are, and always will be, heavily subsidized. To criticize HSR because it might require a subsidy is hypocritical.

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Highways aren't subsidized. They are fully funded by taxpayers/registration fees (tolls notwithstanding) Bad analogy.

Also, just because we did it in the past (subsidize airports) doesn't mean we should do it for HSR. Continuing to do stupid stuff doesn't make it less stupid.

I am fully on board with eliminating eminent domain. Forcing someone to sell what is theirs, even for the benefit of the majority, is tyranny. You want is badly enough, pay them what they will accept, not what you steal it for.

Y'all are way too worried about where the station is. If this boondoggle ever gets built there will be a shuttle to the Roans Prairie station. Heck maybe the parking lot at Post Oak can factor in as a Park N Ride. It doesn't need to touch CS to be a CS stop. I mean hell it doesn't touch Katy either yet someone there could see it as an option for a trip to Dallas. The drive from Katy to this station isn't much different than driving to Hobby and probably shorter than IAH.

A couple of years ago I did some quick math on the number of daily flights from Hobby to Love Field which is the closest direct comparison. I forget the exact numbers but it's like 20 flights each way per week day and like 100 seats per flight. That's a total of 4000 flights per day. How much of that can they take and at what revenue per trip? Right now SWA has it for, what, $150 each way? Can this train do a round trip to Dallas for $300? If it can there's a chance. If it can't, there's not. It's that simple. Put another way you'll know real time how it's doing by watching SWA out of Hobby. If they cut back on total flights then the train is making a dent. If they don't, it's not.

Of course if it fails the damage to the land owners is done as is the damage to the Texas taxpayers who will have to bail it out. My $.02 is that the economics are poor at best. The transportation world is changing too rapidly to think this succeeds.

The estimated cost has gone from an estimated 10 Billion to now 30 Billion and they have turned a shovel of dirt. Now that the company has borrowered money for some Japanese companies and offered the land and land rights as collarteral, I bet the cost will be 100 Billion or more. I suspect it will never be completed in the next 10 years or so. The State of Texas will have to take it over or the Japanese companies will own the lands after the company goes belly-up.

The big benefit to me on HSR is efficiency. I've rode them in Japan an it's like getting on and off a subway in a big city. If you include things like security, traffic, baggage checks, parking and all the other time sucks that relate to airports, it will take less time than a round trip flight to Dallas and you can use your cell phone on the way. That's a big deal to someone that has to take a trip frequently and may command a premium over air fare.

The other consideration here is that this is a pilot - the first one in the US. I am proud that this is in Texas! Innovation takes some risk and we need innovation to deal with the population increase impacts on traffic that are inevitable.

BCS-Ag said:

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The big benefit to me on HSR is efficiency. I've rode them in Japan an it's like getting on and off a subway in a big city. If you include things like security, traffic, baggage checks, parking and all the other time sucks that relate to airports, it will take less time than a round trip flight to Dallas and you can use your cell phone on the way. That's a big deal to someone that has to take a trip frequently and may command a premium over air fare.

The other consideration here is that this is a pilot - the first one in the US. I am proud that this is in Texas! Innovation takes some risk and we need innovation to deal with the population increase impacts on traffic that are inevitable.

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So is there not going to be security at the rail station? Serious question, I don't know the answer but it seems odd that this would not have any time sucking security for a train running into downtown Dallas.

Texas doesn't have the population density for this to even have a chance to be practical.

Not into downtown Dallas nor downtown Houston. Its a land development scheme at both ends of the line.......


The North Texas passenger station will be located in the revitalized Cedars neighborhood of Dallas, just south of downtown, near the Interstate 30 and Interstate 35 interchange. From this location, passengers will have a quick connection to the Greater Houston region and the Brazos Valley as well as to multimodal transportation networks in Dallas and surrounding areas.

Texas Central is partnering with Matthews Southwest to serve as the developer of the Dallas high-speed train station.

The Texas High-Speed Train's Houston passenger station will be located at the Northwest Mall site near the interchange of US 290 and Interstate 610 in northwest Houston.

The terminal will be ideally located in a high-growth area, with easy access to employment centers, including the Galleria, the Energy Corridor, the Medical Center and downtown. The station not only will be a catalyst for economic growth but it also will offer a convenient, efficient and direct network for passengers to and from local transit systems.

rsa said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Aggie@state.gov said:

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Not into downtown Dallas nor downtown Houston. Its a land development scheme at both ends of the line.......


The North Texas passenger station will be located in the revitalized Cedars neighborhood of Dallas, just south of downtown, near the Interstate 30 and Interstate 35 interchange. From this location, passengers will have a quick connection to the Greater Houston region and the Brazos Valley as well as to multimodal transportation networks in Dallas and surrounding areas.

Texas Central is partnering with Matthews Southwest to serve as the developer of the Dallas high-speed train station.

The Texas High-Speed Train's Houston passenger station will be located at the Northwest Mall site near the interchange of US 290 and Interstate 610 in northwest Houston.

The terminal will be ideally located in a high-growth area, with easy access to employment centers, including the Galleria, the Energy Corridor, the Medical Center and downtown. The station not only will be a catalyst for economic growth but it also will offer a convenient, efficient and direct network for passengers to and from local transit systems.

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Interesting. At one point I'd heard it would go into downtown Dallas. So is this more or less convenient that getting off of a plane at Love Field? Serious question, I don't know the answer.

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From the planning meetings I attended the proposed Dallas end is by the Kay Bailey Hutchison convention center, next to the I-30 & I-35 intersection and the West End Marketplace area. The proposed Houston end is close to the METRO Northwest Transit Center where I-10, Loop 610, and 290 converge,

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I keep thinking about the absurdity of someone dealing with this train only to be dropped off at I-30 & I-35 when they have a business meeting in Plano/Frisco/Las Colinas. Or vice versa, getting dropped off at 290/610 and having to get to downtown Houston or the energy corridor (granted that wouldn't be too bad of an Uber). No company is going to pay for that when they could just use Zoom/Teams like they have for the past 6 months. The population density of Texas was already going to make this a stretch, throw in the tech revolution we've seen in the workplace since Corona and this thing is dead on arrival.

google "cedars neighborhood dallas" its south of I-30 from the convention center and not near the West End.

google "Northwest Mall houston" also "Metro Northwest Transit Center" one is at the corner of I-10 and 610.
the other is 610 and 290. 'near' but not adjacent


those folks from Big D and the 'tine can chime in and tell us what they think about proximity to those landmarks you saw when you attended the planning meetings......


its a land development scheme involving the original backers of this project and some swampy deals have been done.

Aggie@state.gov said:

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Not into downtown Dallas nor downtown Houston. Its a land development scheme at both ends of the line.......


The North Texas passenger station will be located in the revitalized Cedars neighborhood of Dallas, just south of downtown, near the Interstate 30 and Interstate 35 interchange. From this location, passengers will have a quick connection to the Greater Houston region and the Brazos Valley as well as to multimodal transportation networks in Dallas and surrounding areas.

Texas Central is partnering with Matthews Southwest to serve as the developer of the Dallas high-speed train station.

The Texas High-Speed Train's Houston passenger station will be located at the Northwest Mall site near the interchange of US 290 and Interstate 610 in northwest Houston.

The terminal will be ideally located in a high-growth area, with easy access to employment centers, including the Galleria, the Energy Corridor, the Medical Center and downtown. The station not only will be a catalyst for economic growth but it also will offer a convenient, efficient and direct network for passengers to and from local transit systems.

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a private corp. using ED for cover to boot.....

Unfortunately this project is another example of the common "yeah its a great idea just not in my backyard". Eminent domain is bad enough on its own, but by a private company on something that most forecasts are showing not to make money? Terrible all around.

doubledog said:

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bcstx06 said:

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People here always complain that we don't have high paying jobs here. The leaders in this county should have fought to have a stop here, not in the middle of nowhere 30+ miles to the east. Many businesses and corporations that would have never looked at this area would have started looking because of the convenience of getting to Dallas and Houston in record time and access to all of their international airports. People could also choose to live here and work in Houston or a Dallas. So many possibilities when you have close access to transportation like that. Just a thought...


https://www.kbtx.com/2020/09/21/this-is-the-moment-we-have-been-working-towards-dallas-houston-high-speed-rail-project-federally-approved/

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The high speed rail is electric and will follow closely the power grid line (which they can also use as right of way). The closest grid (north south) to BCS is at the carlos/shiro area.

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The electric companies won't give TCR access to their ROW because it will limit their ability to maintain their lines.

Japan/Texas Central is a real estate scam designed for the US taxpayer to pay to give the Japanese government US property ownership and mineral rights.

There isn't a single HSR in the world that operates at a profit (even before people realized Zoom was so useful during COVID) without government subsidy or bailout.

Comparing passenger/freight railroad in the 19th and 20th century to the HSR is not apples and oranges. I've been to countries with HSR and there are plenty of prosperous towns not on the HSR. Go back and come up with a better argument.....