Superpark! - July Pro Forma simple calculation

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Brian Alg
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11:38a, 1/16/20
Someone pointed out to me yesterday that there are some major differences between the May 2019 Pro Forma and the July 2019 Pro Forma. The addition of the "Total Revenue & Expenses" page makes the following calculation very easy to do.

If you take their numbers as given:

Page 30-31 Bryan Regional Park - Indoor | Five-Year Operating Pro Forma | June 2019 | With final construction costs page and duplicate "Total Revenue & Expenses - Indoor Facility" page:

Indoor Facility Development Cost: $55,871,522
3.5% interest rate over 30 years
Yearly mortgage payment calculated using this

https://www.fcsamerica.com/products-services/digital-tools/loan-payment-calculator

$3,056,338.81 per year mortgage on the indoor facility.

The net financial impact of this (ignoring all the problems and misattributing revenues and costs to be overly generous) is supposed to be $1,415,888 per year when it is cooking on all cylinders.

Even when you go with their unreliable projections and questionable accounting, all-in this is supposed to be a waste of over $1.6MM per year in each of the next 30 years.

That does not require deep analysis. This requires A minus B equals C. I am having trouble believing a mistake of this size could be made innocently.
Brian Alg

Brazos Coalition for Responsible Government and Moderator Restraint
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techno-ag
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1:34p, 1/16/20
AG
Looking forward to the Super Park! Keep us informed.
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EcoZapp.AC&Air.Purifiers
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4:47p, 1/16/20
- I sat down once and read the "Economic Development Survey" that someone spent a bunch of money on researching for this area.

- I read over some of this report. From it's location, to bad Architecture, to how many volleyball sessions are going to be accounted for..

Read both and most would likely rather vote to extend Santa's Wonderland and add a Top Golf for ~$50m.




imo.. there's no way the math can check out on this one from the get go-

It's a broken solution that can develop with architects/ planners / sales ppl / tax money, but with Tax money it'll be ok- there's always more. Except for the winter sports complex called "Ice Town" on Parks & Rec.


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EliteElectric
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4:58p, 1/16/20
It's getting a big shots golf
www.elitellp.net/

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EcoZapp.AC&Air.Purifiers
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In reply to EliteElectric • 5:05p, 1/16/20
EliteElectric said:
It's getting a big shots golf
There's the issue maybe.

For $100,000,000 in possible construction, someone somewhere along the way had to decided between a Top Golf vs. Big Shots Golf

( Glad I'm not the Mayor of a city spending $100m on a project and have to make that decision. )
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KaneIsAble
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8:27p, 1/16/20
AG
I was literally wondering about the math that appears to go against the city but was looking to see what else you guys knew that could fill in the gaps.

[We cleaned up several posts about posters blocking other posters in order to keep this thread on topic. -Staff]
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Brian Alg
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In reply to KaneIsAble • 9:53a, 1/17/20
I am not a huge fan of the editorial decisions made by staff in this thread. They edited your post so that it doesn't make much sense anymore.

But if you are looking for answers, could you be more specific about your questions? I am trying to make the analysis as simple as possible, to the point I am not correcting some big issues. If those issues were corrected it would likely bring that number much higher than 1.6 million wasted per year. Is there something that isn't clear?

[We only removed one sentence from that post and it had nothing to do with the topic of this thread. -Staff]
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FamousAgg
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1:10p, 1/17/20


In case anyone missed it, I'm being sarcastic.

[In case you've missed it, we expect people to be respectful on this forum when giving their opinions. -Staff]
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Brian Alg
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2:56p, 1/17/20
Just realized one other major difference between the July and May Pro Formas.

In one of the candidates forums in October 2019, Mayor Nelson said that it "pays for itself operationally within 4 years. If you look at the EBITDA, it makes money starting in year 4."

Second clip at around 11:30
http://wtaw.com/2019/10/21/bryan-college-station-chamber-of-commerce-candidates-forum-held-monday-night/

According to the July report, this project's EBITDA would never reach the black. The project would not pay for itself even if you ignore the $55 million construction costs.. This directly contradicts what Mayor Nelson told voters. The updated report came out 3 months before he said that.

For some reason, was using the May 2019 numbers instead of the updated July 2019 numbers that he had access to for 3 months. Why would he do that?
Brian Alg

Brazos Coalition for Responsible Government and Moderator Restraint
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EcoZapp.AC&Air.Purifiers
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7:25p, 1/17/20
For $100,000,000 dollars what could we do Great for the Community ! ?

- Lets build a park / sporting venue for high schoolers located crazy close to a large university populated heavily by college students and spend $15m on that lake.


Is this actually going to be voted on/ go thru? ( If so, can small businesses in the area bid on that $15,000,000 lake of tax money ?) . I'll send in a bid for $14,000,000 and rent a bull dozer
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turfman80
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8:16p, 1/17/20
AG
Always follow the money.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothing is a real cool hand
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KaneIsAble
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In reply to Brian Alg • 8:17p, 1/17/20
AG
No I get it - it appears very simple based on your math. My question was really a request for the rebuttal because from a financial viewpoint it appears like frivolous waste. My assumption is there has to be more to the story and was just trying to engage the other side.

I think you'd weed this out by offering the same opportunity to the private sectors. You'd know very quickly by those bids as to if it was fiscally worth it.

It is crazy that after more than a decade I finally had a post edited by staff (that I recall).
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FamousAgg
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11:24p, 1/17/20
I'll try again without sarcasm...

I don't see the park being needed.

There is the Bryan Regional Athletic Center on the north side of HW6. It has soccer, baseball, softball, a basketball Court and tennis courts. It already pretty large and there is probably 100 acres surrounding it ready to be developed. It's an easier to access location if council decides they have to have a major park.

The REC center has lots of basketball/volleyball courts. Plenty of space for a very large tournament. I believe these are Available as rentals to the public but I'm not sure. I do know if A&M can make a dime they will do it.

Penberthy fields probably has roughly 15 soccer/football/rugby/cricket/quidditch/fill in the blank fields. I know that there is a high school 7v7 championship held there all the time, so it must be open to the public through some avenue.

Then you have Veterans park with another 2 dozen fields. And half dozen diamonds. And there is Central Park, and I'm sure several others I'm forgetting.

It's just absurd to me that anyone can say that there aren't enough sports fields in BCS.

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EliteElectric
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11:56p, 1/17/20
With COB bringing in privately funded tax paying entities like Big Shots Golf I can definitely see the potential for revenue. BRAC might as well be in Tibet as far as desirability for a location. I don't know what all is planned but this is a good start that I can see getting a ton of use by locals and visitors.
www.elitellp.net/

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PS3D
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In reply to EliteElectric • 11:08a, 1/18/20
EliteElectric said:
It's getting a big shots golf
Assuming that's a done deal (or even remotely true at all), I just feel for sorry for the Bryan taxpayers sponged by city council members who no doubt not only paid/gave tax breaks to Big Shots while giving away city park space.

It's also shameful for Big Shots to abandon their talks with College Station and go to Bryan just because College Station wouldn't wave taxpayer dollars in their face.
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cslifer
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In reply to PS3D • 11:24a, 1/18/20
How is it shameful for a business to choose to go somewhere that is a better deal? Last I checked the point of a business to make money....
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PS3D
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In reply to cslifer • 5:00p, 1/18/20
cslifer said:
How is it shameful for a business to choose to go somewhere that is a better deal? Last I checked the point of a business to make money....
It's a short-sighted decision to pick an inferior location just because you paid more to do so, and the idea that the "superpark" will suddenly make the College Avenue/Villa Maria area this prosperous beneficial area within the next 5 years isn't a good assumption. If that were true, why isn't BRAC turning north Texas Avenue into a new hotbed of activity?
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cslifer
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In reply to PS3D • 5:47p, 1/18/20
While it could be short sighted, none of us are really in a position to say if it is or not, we don't know the specifics of their business plan, financials market studies etc. And you still never answered my question on why it was "shameful". How is evaluating the facts and picking what you believe to be the best choice of location for your business "shameful"?
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EcoZapp.AC&Air.Purifiers
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In reply to cslifer • 6:50p, 1/18/20
I think we know some of the assumed specifics of this business plan, It's in that PDF that is planning to spend ~$100,000,000

Local politics getting involved on where a Golf Driving range shall be built - I think thats a possible issue with this amount of $$



B/CS Prides itself on being the "Research Valley ", yet here we are.. a Top Golf or Big Shots Golf can be build on HWY and useful for around $6m


First lesson in Architecture - Location - Location - Location
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PS3D
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In reply to cslifer • 8:16p, 1/18/20
cslifer said:
While it could be short sighted, none of us are really in a position to say if it is or not, we don't know the specifics of their business plan, financials market studies etc. And you still never answered my question on why it was "shameful". How is evaluating the facts and picking what you believe to be the best choice of location for your business "shameful"?
If Big Shots did their due diligence on what businesses look for (traffic counts, accessibility, demographics, spending costs), the College Station location is better, since they actually filed for plans and rezoning.

That is to say if the plan was actually real and the Big Shots in the southwest corner wasn't wishful thinking on someone's part.
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EliteElectric
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8:30p, 1/18/20
I have the plans in my office it bids next week. Not in the business of rumors buddy. It's real and it's bidding next week. I don't know the what when and whys of how it got included in the park and anything about proposed CSTX location but I'll assure you what I am saying is not rumor or wishful thinking.
www.elitellp.net/

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PS3D
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In reply to EliteElectric • 1:05p, 1/19/20
EliteElectric said:
I have the plans in my office it bids next week. Not in the business of rumors buddy. It's real and it's bidding next week. I don't know the what when and whys of how it got included in the park and anything about proposed CSTX location but I'll assure you what I am saying is not rumor or wishful thinking.
Wishful thinking on the part of Bryan, not yours.

If they're about to bid on it next week, then an official public announcement will be made or it should otherwise be easy to show that there is a bid for it (screenshot, etc.). Otherwise there's no real proof besides someone just talking about it, which is something anyone can do.
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Chris98
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1:23p, 1/19/20
AG
They are requesting subcontractor's budgetary proposals, for Big Shots, this week. Below is the email that was sent to subcontractors last week

Quote:
*New Plan Update**

Everyone...
I've been informed that the Full/Bid Set of Plans will not be out till end of 1st Quarter. BigShots is wanting to get #'s together now in order to qualify some Subcontractor bidders and put together a budget.

We would greatly appreciate your help now working off of the plans/information that has been provided, but understand that you are limited to what you are able to bid, due to lack of some vital information.

If you could shoot a hard # to us to help out, that would be awesome, if not, no worries.

Please look for BigShots to "kick off" around April 2020
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turfman80
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1:43p, 1/19/20
AG
My question on the whole Big Shots Golf issue... is the city leasing the land to the franchisee? or selling it? I can see the argument that it will generate tax revenues for the city, but it seems somewhat wrong to take public park land and have it used by a commercial interest.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothing is a real cool hand
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bcstx06
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7:10p, 1/19/20
It seems that it pains some people that the tides are changing in this community. Not all major developments coming to this area will automatically choose College Station over Bryan anymore. CS may have had this area on lock as far as development for the past few decades, but Bryan over the past few years has put on its running shoes and is playing catch up.

I would much rather live in a community where both cities prosper, not just one.

Who knows, maybe in the near future College Station will get a Top Golf.
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techno-ag
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In reply to PS3D • 9:43p, 1/19/20
AG
PS3D said:
EliteElectric said:
I have the plans in my office it bids next week. Not in the business of rumors buddy. It's real and it's bidding next week. I don't know the what when and whys of how it got included in the park and anything about proposed CSTX location but I'll assure you what I am saying is not rumor or wishful thinking.
Wishful thinking on the part of Bryan, not yours.

If they're about to bid on it next week, then an official public announcement will be made or it should otherwise be easy to show that there is a bid for it (screenshot, etc.). Otherwise there's no real proof besides someone just talking about it, which is something anyone can do.
That didn't age well.
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PS3D
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In reply to bcstx06 • 10:11p, 1/19/20
bcstx06 said:
It seems that it pains some people that the tides are changing in this community. Not all major developments coming to this area will automatically choose College Station over Bryan anymore. CS may have had this area on lock as far as development for the past few decades, but Bryan over the past few years has put on its running shoes and is playing catch up.

I would much rather live in a community where both cities prosper, not just one.

Who knows, maybe in the near future College Station will get a Top Golf.
No one is getting "pained" except for the Bryan taxpayers for the whole "super park" scam.

Why it's somehow an unspoken crime to question a claim like "I saw a BigShots plan in my office, trust me guize" is also beyond me.
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Oogway
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6:43a, 1/20/20
Per the Eagle, the Council voted this week to approve a ~$75 million dollar bond, $59 million of which is for the superpark. The certificates of obligation (debt a city takes on w/o a taxpayer vote) for the superpark are to be paid off over a thirty year term.

W/respect to the golf place, Bryan Commerce and Development, Inc owns 6 or so lots near and around the park location so perhaps that is what they are thinking? They've bought several lots over the last two years as this superpark plan has been fomenting.

Don't have a dog in this fight, as I am not a Bryan resident, but am not a big fan of C.O.s





https://www.theeagle.com/news/local/bryan-city-council-approves-million-bond-other-items/article_049d239c-3997-11ea-a6e9-2b2d4a64dff5.html
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EcoZapp.AC&Air.Purifiers
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7:40a, 1/20/20
This might be a Fun case study in 10 years from now- or maybe 20 , or maybe 30...

Suppose no one cares about Big Shots Golf in 20 years from now... Or suppose someone built a "Competitor" one day on HWY 6..



My prediction..

Someone is gonna go "Wow- That was Dumb- what could one have spent $100 Million dollars on which was much more useful for making the community brighter for generations"

Political person is Charge "Well If you want a $100m Project to pass - Distract with a Golf Driving Range"



- We should all go stand with the Architects / ppl who voted on this, and stand on the park grounds at 10pm on a dozen random nights of the year to discuss.




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isitjustme
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In reply to EcoZapp.AC&Air.Purifiers • 8:05a, 1/20/20
AG
EcoZapp.Makes.Crisp.Air said:
This might be a Fun case study in 10 years from now- or maybe 20 , or maybe 30...

Suppose noone cares about Big Shots Golf in 20 years from now...



Someone is gonna go "Wow" That was Dumb ...

Political person is Charge "Well If you want a $100m Project to pass - Distract with a Golf Driving Range"

This is a good point. The correct response is to allow the superpark to change to meet significant changes in user preferences without having to spend another $100m+. If no one cares about Big Shots Golf in 20 years (I'm ahead of the curve b/c I don't care about them now), then hopefully the facility can be easily converted t something people will use. I think green space, picnic areas, walking trails, athletic fields, and bb/vb courts will always be in demand so I hope care will be taken to keep those maintained.
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dgonzo99
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8:12a, 1/20/20
Big Shots was part of the plan from the start. Over a year ago. I understand it was in the contract with the chosen developer. That's why Bryan went with that developer.
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EliteElectric
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In reply to PS3D • 8:27a, 1/20/20
PS3D said:



Why it's somehow an unspoken crime to question a claim like "I saw a BigShots plan in my office, trust me guize" is also beyond me.
That's not what I said and not what happened. I said I had the plans, true, and I said it was on bid schedule to bid this week, also true.

I couldn't care less whether you believe me or not and I was not trying to convince you, my comments in any construction/development type thread are for the many people who know me, trust me and value my input.

I have done over 200 million dollars in work in this community in a span of 28 years and I have never once misled or tried to mislead anyone.
www.elitellp.net/

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techno-ag
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In reply to EliteElectric • 11:04a, 1/20/20
AG
So far the anti-growth wing in Bryan has not been able to derail the Superpark. Let's hope it makes it and is highly successful.
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isitjustme
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In reply to techno-ag • 12:20p, 1/20/20
AG
techno-ag said:
So far the anti-growth wing in Bryan has not been able to derail the Superpark. Let's hope it makes it and is highly successful.
I agree with you on most posts, but you can't lump everyone who doesn't like the Superpark plans in their current form as anti-growth. I'm very pro-growth, but prefer for it to be spurred by the private sector, not with $70+ million in public bonds that taxpayers are on the hook for. We have more pressing needs for those funds, like better roads and drainage throughout the city, and maybe hiring someone who knows how to synchronize stop lights.

That being said, I hope the project is successful now that we're into it. I'd rather be wrong than get to say I told you so.
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Brian Alg
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In reply to isitjustme • 2:10p, 1/21/20
I am not sure what you mean by "now that we're into it." The city has spent a few hundred thousand in consulting fees that they didn't need to. But those are relatively minor sunk costs.

From what I have seen of the current contract with the consultants, they can cancel and are only on the hook for an additional month. That could save tens of thousands right there.

On construction and operating the facility, the bulk of the spending, the city is not locked in. There is nothing, as far as I know, preventing the city from spending the money from the bonds on necessary infrastructure instead of the project that (by their own overoptimistic projections and some very generous accounting) is supposed to be a waste of over $1.5 million per year.

It is not too late.
Brian Alg

Brazos Coalition for Responsible Government and Moderator Restraint
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