On the topic of hurricanes if you ever want an interesting read, Issac's Storm is a really good read about the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston.

aggie4231 said:

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I followed him when he was first getting into meteorology and tropical storms on the wunderground blogs. He was pretty intelligent for a high school kid. I know several years ago he started college(probably has his B.S. by now). I think he even started his sight when he started college.

I trust him and Dr Jeff Masters (started wunderground). Masters used take part in the Hurricane Hunter flights until I think the late 80's, when he went through a near death flight through a storm.

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I've been following him since he was in high school as well. He is now in grad school working on a Masters at Florida State.

I don't think south Texas will ever again see a storm earlier than July or later than August.

elnaco said:

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On the topic of hurricanes if you ever want an interesting read, Issac's Storm is a really good read about the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston.

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There is also a video on YouTube about this. Seems well done.....

Question for Texags, at what Cat 1-5 do you "board up" for a coming storm? I live in Victoria, 40 miles from the coast. My boards are cut and stored and I can be finished in less than two hours. The most time consuming part is carrying the plywood around to each window and door.

What size storm do you batten down the hatches?

I've lived on the coast all my life for the most part and I have decided that you are almost better staying home (unless your on the barrier island), than evacuating to a complete **** show in SA, DFW or H-town. When I was a kid we evacuated Gilbert to SA, corpus saw nothing, SA saw storms and tornados and was chaos.

I live in Portland about 1/4 mile from CC bay but I am 20' above sea level. I will never get flooded by a surge.

A lot of times a big storm hits the coast and moves quickly over the immediate impact area then breaks down inland, slows and the tornados start.

Another very good read is A Weekend in September by John Edward Weems. Was written in the early 50s and has eyewitness accounts from many that were kids/teens during the storm. He goes almost minute by minute as the storm moves across the island.

https://www.amazon.com/Weekend-September-John-Edward-Weems-ebook/dp/B005I3CVV0/ref=la_B001KCHDDO_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1497658141&sr=1-1

He's also got a book on the 1953 Waco tornado but his Galveston storm book is better IMHO.

Tornado risk is more a function of where the rain bands are and what side of the storm you're on. While we focus on them inland as one of the two big threats (no surge and less wind) the coastal areas can still have significant tornadoes. Carla made lmdfall at Port O'Connor but produced an F-4 tornado in Galveston, one of only two F-4s on record in SE TX.

21-12-3-5

Brush Country said:

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When I was a kid we evacuated Gilbert to SA, corpus saw nothing, SA saw storms and tornados and was chaos.

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We did the same thing, my wife and very pregnant sister evacuated to SA while brother in law and I stayed home in Victoria and boarded up. As Gilbert made landfall, we played golf and the wife was caught in flooding and terrible weather. I'm a "hurricane prepper" and am ready to ride out anything short of a strong 4-5, but will send the wife away with the dogs, if it's bad enough. We've been lucky, since Carla, the only real problem we've had is flooding from Beulah, Claudette in 04(?) was not much worth than some northers we get through here...

Brush Country said:

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I don't think south Texas will ever again see a storm earlier than July or later than August.

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I agree with this and your post about leaving. Most of the time those storms turn or head north. I wait until the last minute. You have a better chance of getting killed by a tornado, sitting in your car, on the ten hour drive to San Antonio, stuck in traffic.

Although, there's some funny stuff goes on during that drive. People go crazy.

Our water is so hot already this year. Think we see something around corpus

Your choice of emoticon is throwing me for a loop, but I agree. Statistically, I realize this year is no difference than any other, but I've been back on the coast for six hurricane seasons now and we've not so much as thought about having to get the boards out. It's high time for at least a scare.

So the Mets are saying it could hit anywhere from Mexico to Florida. Thanks for the insightful analysis...

Brush Country said:

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Your choice of emoticon is throwing me for a loop, but I agree. Statistically, I realize this year is no difference than any other, but I've been back on the coast for six hurricane seasons now and we've not so much as thought about having to get the boards out. It's high time for at least a scare.

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Be careful what you wish for. You may be saying Howdy to Bret next weekend.

Brush Country said:

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Your choice of emoticon is throwing me for a loop, but I agree. Statistically, I realize this year is no difference than any other, but I've been back on the coast for six hurricane seasons now and we've not so much as thought about having to get the boards out. It's high time for at least a scare.

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Lol. I hate those things. I just pick the one I like. That one and the one I'm using now crack me up.

blue parachutes or gtfo.

Not wishing but it sure would be nice to see CHOKE canyon at 100%.

Cromagnum said:

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So the Mets are saying it could hit anywhere from Mexico to Florida. Thanks for the insightful analysis...

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Most of the problem is because a defined center of circulation hasn't formed yet, the models are just guessing at where the origination will be and what future steering mechanisms it will encounter.

If/when it forms, the models will tighten up on tracks.

Historically speaking (and that may be what the models are running home to) storms this time of year in that general development location seem to stay fairly disorganized and pile into Mexico, or develop and shoot straight up toward the Florida panhandle.

It's getting sheered aloft so if it does develop it will likely take some time to get it's act together.

In. Love tracking storms

carpe vinum said:

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Perfect. We're headed to New Orleans and Biloxi for the first part of our honeymoon.

Sounds like the scheduled hurricane hunter flight has been cancelled.
Still a hot mess without much of a defined system to investigate.
Models continue bouncing back and forth between Paraguay and Zimbabwe, and will likely continue to do so until a unified low forms for everyone to get a common starting point.

I haven't looked too closely, but I think I saw a wind shear map that showed pretty terrible conditions if it gets North of the Yucatan.

The GFS was the sole eastern outlier at this point. If it goes tropical it looks like you guys get this one.

Smithjg said:

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elnaco said:

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On the topic of hurricanes if you ever want an interesting read, Issac's Storm is a really good read about the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston.

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There is also a video on YouTube about this. Seems well done.....

Question for Texags, at what Cat 1-5 do you "board up" for a coming storm? I live in Victoria, 40 miles from the coast. My boards are cut and stored and I can be finished in less than two hours. The most time consuming part is carrying the plywood around to each window and door.

What size storm do you batten down the hatches?

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Depends on the storm more than anything for me. I'm far enough inland and high enough that I don't worry about the surge, generally speaking. However, the size of the storm and the winds will dictate whether I decide to hunker down or pack and head to a more hospitable location during the storm.

Either way, I'm likely boarding up and taking the necessary precautions. I'm woefully lacking in my emergency items (water, non perishable foods, etc.) so that will also weigh heavily on my choice that I hope I really don't have to mess with.

NHC Unveils New Product with Potential Tropical Cyclone in Atlantic

Quote:

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The new Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will provide more detailed guidance on systems that are not yet at depression strength but that have a chance of intensifying and bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. In their announcement of this and other service changes for 2017, NHC said: "Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening 'potential tropical cyclones', NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones."

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Interesting. This is the first one for PTC2.

They are now saying good chance of a run at Hurricane Cat 1 by the time of landfall for this gulf storm, yet no idea where it's going

Hi Bret. Updating OP.


https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/876910609643651072?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This year will mark the end of the world as we know it.

Interesting run

Sooooo flying in to Houston Wednesday evening may not be a good idea/actually happen?