big step backward for Herbert yesterday -- he was dreadful vs. the Texans

time will tell if the Chargers made a mistake with the huge extension

25 of 32 starting QBs are under 30.

And the top 10 QBs in the league are all under 30. In fact, almost all are 28 or younger.

The NFL does not have a young QB problem.

Yewenjie said:

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25 of 32 starting QBs are under 30.

And the top 10 QBs in the league are all under 30. In fact, almost all are 28 or younger.

The NFL does not have a young QB problem.

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Not really the point of the post.

This is a very interesting NFL topic. Most rookie quarterbacks can benefit from riding the bench behind a well-established quarterback before taking over as the starter. For example, Jordan Love backed up Aaron Rodgers from 2020-2022 before taking over as the Packers QB1 in 2023. Sometimes, NFL quarterbacks bounced around multiple teams before reviving their careers.

Baker Mayfield: Browns 2018-2021, Panthers/Rams in 2022, Buccaneers 2023-present. Since joining the Buccaneers, his career appears to be rebounding.

Sam Darnold: Jets, 2018-2020, Panthers 2021-2022, 49ers 2023, and Vikings 2024-present. Since joining the Vikings, his career appears to be rebounding.

Geno Smith: Jets, 2013-2016, Giants 2017, Chargers 2018, Seahawks 2019-present. Since taking over as the Seahakws QB1 in 2022, his career appears to be rebounding. Smith made the Pro Bowl and won Comeback Player of the Year in 2022.

Jameis probably had the highest pick 6 to pass attempt ratio of a QB this year. If not the highest.

The others I agree. Geno Smith is the third one I'd put in the Darnold and Baker category.

Also Bryce Young went from the worst QB this season to playing decent football. Now the Panthers might just be one of the worst WR talent evaluating team in the league. Legette, Mingo and Marshall are three attempts without a stud. Now Legette might have that sophomore breakout but I wouldn't bet on it.

Baker has the second most yards in the league since 2023 behind Goff and I would assume is top 4 in TDs too. He has some incredible seasons and above average in my eyes.

It is not hard to explain, really. The risk of passing on a boom is greater than taking a bust (for GMs).

Once they hitch the wagon, they have to play them. Why now and not 20-30 years ago? Insane money, agree or disagree there is a sense that athletes are developing physically and technically faster/better now at all levels below NFL, massive shift in how patient our culture is (this bleeds into everything including sport) and recent sucess of first year QBs which is happening now more than ever. Probably more but that is a good start.

MookieBlaylock said:

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Yeah Jameis and Marriotta went 1 and 2 and should be in the oeak of their careers
Both are backups

Baker is still average as the day is long but he has matured into starting QB

Darnold came into the league at 20 with all the talent - did him no favors and he too has blossomed and is still young

It's all about the coaching - Mahomes would be out of the league if he had gone to the jets

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So Darnold survived the Jets but Mahomes woudl'nt? Me thinks I smell a Mahomes hater. Zach Wilson is still in the league for goodness sake.

Mahomes is a beast like him or not. I think he lands on his feet regardless of draft destination (assuming healthy).

AgFan1974 said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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Yeah Jameis and Marriotta went 1 and 2 and should be in the oeak of their careers
Both are backups

Baker is still average as the day is long but he has matured into starting QB

Darnold came into the league at 20 with all the talent - did him no favors and he too has blossomed and is still young

It's all about the coaching - Mahomes would be out of the league if he had gone to the jets

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So Darnold survived the Jets but Mahomes woudl'nt? Me thinks I smell a Mahomes hater. Zach Wilson is still in the league for goodness sake.

Mahomes is a beast like him or not. I think he lands on his feet regardless of draft destination (assuming healthy).

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someone needs to look up the definition of hyperbole

MookieBlaylock said:

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AgFan1974 said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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Yeah Jameis and Marriotta went 1 and 2 and should be in the oeak of their careers
Both are backups

Baker is still average as the day is long but he has matured into starting QB

Darnold came into the league at 20 with all the talent - did him no favors and he too has blossomed and is still young

It's all about the coaching - Mahomes would be out of the league if he had gone to the jets

---

So Darnold survived the Jets but Mahomes woudl'nt? Me thinks I smell a Mahomes hater. Zach Wilson is still in the league for goodness sake.

Mahomes is a beast like him or not. I think he lands on his feet regardless of draft destination (assuming healthy).

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someone needs to look up the definition of hyperbole

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Hard to tell anymore...

Does anyone have stats about QB draft success rate in the the 90s? I wonder if it's really any better than today. Guys like Ryan Leaf and Todd Marinovich come to mind. It seems to me that most first round QBs are busts. There are only 32 spots, and guys can stay for a decade or more. When you've got 6-7 QBs getting drafted in the first round, odds are, most will be considered busts.

I wonder how much effect it has that most of these QBs - and all of the 1st round picks - enter the draft after only 3 years of college ball. And if they were playing at one of the big power schools like Bama or tOSU, they probably only had two years, or maybe even just one, as the starter.

How much do those foregone reps matter?

I think it was Bill Parcells who said that when he was drafting a QB, he wanted a guy who had been a starter for at least 3, preferably 4 years in college. 2022 wasn't exactly a banner year for QBs, but Brock Purdy - who started almost 4 full seasons at ISU - is the only QB from that draft with a starting job.

A different random thought, but do you think the fact that kids tend to specialize in a single sport in HS and often earlier, makes any difference? Back in the day, the big jock types usually played a different sport during every season. At my HS, we had one football player who earned a scholarship. He played OT/DE on the football team, center on the basketball team, and was all-state in the shot put.