Anthony Richardson is 22. Benched.
Bryce Young is 23. Benched.
Trey Lance is 24. Benched.
Justin Fields is 25. Benched.
Will Levis is 25. Benched.
Zach Wilson is 25. Benched.
Mac Jones is 26. Benched.
Kenny Pickett is 26. Benched.

The NFL has a QB development problem.

— Sam Block (@theblockspot) October 29, 2024

I found this tweet to be interesting and am curious what others think about this. I know the hit rate on early round quarterbacks has always been relatively low, but it seems like a lot of guys are getting tossed to the side faster than ever. The benching of Anthony Richardson really surprised me...they drafted the guy KNOWING his limitations and that he was a project, benching him this early for Flacco seems incredibly stupid to me. I took a look at quarterbacks drafted in the first couple rounds and am incredibly curious about what the issue is here.

2024:
- Caleb Williams - 1st overall pick - jury is still out
- Jayden Daniels - 2nd overall pick - promising
- Drake Maye - 3rd overall pick - jury is still out
- Michael Penix - 8th overall pick - backup, jury is still out
- Bo Nix - 12th overall pick - jury is still out

2023:
- Bryce Young - 1st overall pick - benched
- C.J. Stroud - 2nd overall pick - stud
- Anthony Richardson - 4th overall pick - benched
- Will Levis - 2nd rounder - likely bust

2022:
- Kenny Pickett - 20th overall pick - benched, traded, bust
- Desmond Ridder - 2nd rounder - benched, traded, bust

2021:
- Trevor Lawrence - 1st overall pick - jury is still out
- Zach Wilson - 2nd overall pick - benched, traded, bust
- Trey Lance - 3rd overall pick - benched, traded, bust
- Justin Fields - 11th overall pick - benched, traded, likely bust
- Mac Jones - 15th overall pick - benched, traded, bust

2020:
- Joe Burrow - 1st overall pick - stud
- Tua Tagoviola - 2nd overall pick - good
- Justin Herbert - 6th overall pick - stud
- Jordan Love - 26th overall pick - stud
- Jalen Hurts - 2nd rounder - stud

2019:
- Kyler Murray - 1st overall pick - good
- Daniel Jones - 6th overall pick - bust
- Dwayne Haskins - 15th overall pick - benched, traded, unfortunately passed away
- Drew Lock - 2nd rounder - benched, traded, bust

2018:
- Baker Mayfield - 1st overall pick - benched, traded, rebounded in Tampa after multiple moves
- Sam Darnold - 3rd overall pick - benched, traded, rebounded in Minnesota after multiple moves
- Josh Allen - 7th overall pick - stud
- Josh Rosen - 10th overall pick - benched, traded, out of the league
- Lamar Jackson - 32nd overall pick - stud

2017:
- Mitchell Trubisky - 2nd overall pick - benched, traded, bust
- Patrick Mahomes - 10th overall pick - stud
- Deshaun Watson - 12th overall pick - stud, then rapist, now bad
- Deshone Kizer - 2nd rounder - bust

2016:
- Jared Goff - 1st overall pick - traded, rebounded in Detroit
- Carson Wentz - 2nd overall pick - stud, hurt, benched, traded
- Paxton Lynch - 26th overall pick - bust
- Christian Hacknberg - 2nd rounder - bust

2015:
- Jameis Winston - 1st overall pick - benched, traded, rebounding in Cleveland
- Marcus Mariota - 2nd overall pick - benched, traded, bust

2014:
- Blake Bortles - 3rd overall pick - bust
- Johnny Manziel - 22nd overall pick - bust
- Teddy Bridgewater - 32nd overall pick - benched, traded, bust
- Derek Carr - 2nd rounder - decent career
- Jimmy Garoppolo - 2nd rounder - decent career

I am really curious what the common denominator is here. From 2014-2023, it looks like 40 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first two rounds. 27 of those guys seem to have been benched, traded, or out of the league pretty early in their careers.

A lot of these players had bust written all over them, in my opinion. Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Blake Bortles, etc. I think it is hard to take shots on guys from lesser conferences unless they have sustained success over a number of years AND elite physical tools. Zach Wilson had neither, same for Lance.

But many of the teams consistently drafting towards the top are the most poorly managed (duh) so oftentimes have both drafting AND development issues. Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold have all shown that a quarterback's environment obviously plays a massive role in their ability to succeed. Of those quarterbacks, Goff is the only one who really started their career in a good organization.

Are quarterbacks being drafted too high? Are teams failing them from a development perspective? Both? I feel like there is a combination of both, but think that the draft capital being spent on quarterbacks with massive question marks is the bigger part of the problem here.

justnobody79 said:

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the most common denominators are they are drafted by teams with a weak supporting cast and they are playing too soon

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There is certainly something to this...Josh Allen, Tua, Lamar, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler were thrust into situations with mediocre to horrible supporting players, but all blossomed after getting weapons upgrades.

It is wild to me that people draft guys like Bryce Young, Sam Darnold, or Justin Fields and cast them to the side because they struggle to succeed early in their careers when their supporting casts were pretty poor early in their careers.

FTAG 2000 said:

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The proliferation of air raid type systems in college has been bad for all QBs coming out.

The NFL makes you read and react to defenses and these kids who are just used to going to spot A/B/C struggle with it.

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College and HS doing nothing but "air raid" is what has really failed quarterback development.

redag06 said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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The proliferation of air raid type systems in college has been bad for all QBs coming out.

The NFL makes you read and react to defenses and these kids who are just used to going to spot A/B/C struggle with it.

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College and HS doing nothing but "air raid" is what has really failed quarterback development.

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Is that the issue?

A lot of the busts didn't run air raid offenses in college and there are a number of successful quarterbacks who did run the air raid offense in college.

Somebody watched Pat McAfee today. They discussed this tweet at length.

Look at it from free agency / trades.

This summer teams could have added Henry at no draft capital. Saquon Barkley at no draft capital. Those are the number 1 & 2 running backs in rush yards this season. Josh Jacobs at 4.

Dobbins at 10, Aaron Jones at 14, Tony pollard at 15 also moved over the summer.

Wide receivers can be got in the season. Though not any top guys moved because of out of contract this past summer. They are more like QBs.

Teams are also OK with a big swing and miss at the QB spot in hopes of hitting on one.

W said:

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Trey Lance is an interesting case because the 49ers are considered a top notch organization

but SF flat out made an evaluation mistake. Lance only started 2 games in 2021 and 2 games in 2022. The 49ers realized fairly quickly that Lance would be a bust and cut bait.

and Lance came into a great situation with Shanahan as the head coach; and weapons like Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle already on the offense

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Once Purdy balled out in 2022 it made it a lot easier to bail on TL after 4 games, but yeah he looks like a bust.

Guys I though were obvious they would be busts: Richardson, Levis, Pickett, Ridder, Wilson, Locke, Trubisky, Kizer, Marriota

Guys I thought would shine that busted: Mac Jones, Rosen, Wentz, Hackenberg, Manziel. I thought Rosen was going to be a superstar, talk about a swing and a miss.

Guys I thought would bust but are legit: Love, Murray, Hurts.

A lot of these guys had no business going in the first or second round. Levis, Ridder, Pickett, Trubisky, and Kizer seemed obviously flawed to the woefully amateur eyes of myself.

I think one of the issues is a lot of teams are desperate for QBs so they reach. Of course the hype machine and media and agents and all that doesn't help. If teams would focus more on building their team inside out and win an older mediocre QB then they can risk the draft capital on a more safe pick when the team is ready. Obviously it is a challenge to get a top pick while being a mediocre team. But there are ways to move up via trade. Fascinating topic.

another issue...

are the QB's that start off their careers at a high level...and appear to be on their way to super stardom...

but then settle in as very average, solid, decent, etc..,

Herbert and Murray are examples of this

in his 2nd year, Herbert threw for 5,000 yards and 38 TD's; but his numbers have been in a steady decline since

he's not close to being Philip Rivers

It's the Texians QB that is coming back to the norm not Hebert

MookieBlaylock said:

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It's the Texians QB that is coming back to the norm not Hebert

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Their OL is garbage and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are out…Stroud is still a stud.

But Jayden Daniels is just "promising"
Right now his only question mark is durability.

Zachary Klement said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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It's the Texians QB that is coming back to the norm not Hebert

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Their OL is garbage and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are out…Stroud is still a stud.

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Sounds like excuses for his coming back to the norm

Interesting topic for sure

PooDoo said:

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But Jayden Daniels is just "promising"
Right now his only question mark is durability.

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I think he is likely to be a stud...I want to see it a bit longer and against better competition before I crown him.

Right now his wins are over the:
New York Giants x2 (2-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)
Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
Cleveland Browns (2-7)
Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Chicago Bears (4-4)

But Daniels does look great, I believe he will be a stud.

MookieBlaylock said:

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Zachary Klement said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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It's the Texians QB that is coming back to the norm not Hebert

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Their OL is garbage and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are out…Stroud is still a stud.

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Sounds like excuses for his coming back to the norm

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Do you think the norm for most QBs is having a 5'8 WR as their WR1 and an OL that ranks in the bottom third of the league and is allowing the second most sacks? If so, then you are probably right!

I wonder if the Colts are pleased with their decision to bench Anthony Richardson.

The Colts did not score a single offensive touchdown last night.

Flacco was 16/27 for 179 yards, a fumble, and an interception.

Part of the issue is the huge contracts capable QBs are getting, so teams feel pressured to maximize the small window of time where they have a QB on a rookie contract.

It's ultimately a copycat league - teams saw a few teams have success building out a roster around a QB on a rookie contract, so they try to force that situation for their own team. What they fail to realize is that their organization and/or roster is a dumpster fire compared to the other teams that have pulled this strategy off, so it doesn't work.

I think at the end of the day, the quality of the organization matters most, because most of them aren't going to be drafting players they don't think are ready or won't be putting them in positions to fail if they plan to play them right away (i.e., they got a high draft pick from a trade and can put a young QB into a semi-decent roster).

Saw that Matthew Stafford is the last man standing from that 2009 draft. Credit to him and his willingness to leave Detroit and get to LA. Goff is flourishing in Detroit, but its a different system (run heavy).

Zachary Klement said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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Zachary Klement said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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It's the Texians QB that is coming back to the norm not Hebert

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Their OL is garbage and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are out…Stroud is still a stud.

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Sounds like excuses for his coming back to the norm

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Do you think the norm for most QBs is having a 5'8 WR as their WR1 and an OL that ranks in the bottom third of the league and is allowing the second most sacks? If so, then you are probably right!

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Steve Smith and Tyreke hill have no probem being #1s - and the majority of NFL teams have bad offensive lines

more excuses are still excuses

MookieBlaylock said:

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Zachary Klement said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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Zachary Klement said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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It's the Texians QB that is coming back to the norm not Hebert

---

Their OL is garbage and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are out…Stroud is still a stud.

---

Sounds like excuses for his coming back to the norm

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Do you think the norm for most QBs is having a 5'8 WR as their WR1 and an OL that ranks in the bottom third of the league and is allowing the second most sacks? If so, then you are probably right!

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Steve Smith and Tyreke hill have no probem being #1s - and the majority of NFL teams have bad offensive lines

more excuses are still excuses

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I think it is unlikely that Tank Dell ends up being anywhere close to Tyreek Hill or Steve Smith. Hill is a future Hall of Famer. Steve Smith was an All Pro WR.

If you don't want to consider a quarterback's surroundings being down when evaluating their play, that is definitely your choice.

The college game doesn't do as well at preparing QBs for the league as it used to, but NFL teams insist on forcing these guys onto the field anyways.

VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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Guys I though were obvious they would be busts: Richardson, Levis, Pickett, Ridder, Wilson, Locke, Trubisky, Kizer, Marriota

Guys I thought would shine that busted: Mac Jones, Rosen, Wentz, Hackenberg, Manziel. I thought Rosen was going to be a superstar, talk about a swing and a miss.

Guys I thought would bust but are legit: Love, Murray, Hurts.

A lot of these guys had no business going in the first or second round. Levis, Ridder, Pickett, Trubisky, and Kizer seemed obviously flawed to the woefully amateur eyes of myself.

I think one of the issues is a lot of teams are desperate for QBs so they reach. Of course the hype machine and media and agents and all that doesn't help. If teams would focus more on building their team inside out and win an older mediocre QB then they can risk the draft capital on a more safe pick when the team is ready. Obviously it is a challenge to get a top pick while being a mediocre team. But there are ways to move up via trade. Fascinating topic.

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Huh! He had bust written all over him. The Browns were idiots, but then we already knew that.

At the time the Browns were the worst pro sports franchise in America. Top to bottom. He could not have gone to a worse spot. O well.

Surely it gets to the point where teams realize that it's not worth it to take QBs so high in the draft with such a high rate of busts. If it were me, I would much rather take a guy later and not feel forced to play them early.

Agreed.

redag06 said:

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VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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At the time the Browns were the worst pro sports franchise in America. Top to bottom. He could not have gone to a worse spot. O well.

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He could've gone to the best franchise at the time, he was going to be an NFL bust, not only did his size and talent not translate to the NFL, he chose not to be a professional.

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Still the greatest college quarterback of all-time, all things considered. He knew what his peak was and made sure he enjoyed it. His NIL money would've been astronomical.