***Keeper League - Who to Keep Discussion***

3,221 Views | 20 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by boy09
Goose06
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Didn't see one of these out there yet so thought I'd get it started.

In my league, we keep 3 in the round they were drafted and if they were undrafted then you can keep them in the last round. It is a 10 team PPR league. I have some pretty good keeper options so trying to figure out what is the best mix to go for.

***I draft 9th in all rounds (no snake)

QB:
  • Mahomes - can keep as my 4th round pick (pick 39)

RB:
  • Ekeler - can keep as my 1st round pick (pick 9)
  • Breece Hall - can keep as my 6th round pick (pick 59)

WR
  • AJ Brown - can keep as my 3rd round pick (pick 29)
  • Waddle - can keep as my 9th round pick (pick 89)
  • DK Metcalf - can keep as my 5th round pick (pick 49)
  • Watson - can keep as my 15th round pick (pick 149)

I am definitely keeping Waddle. It feels like Mahomes is a pretty good value. I think I have just about crossed Metcalf off my list of keepers to consider. I also struggle with the idea of keeping Watson even though there appears to be a lot of value there. Thoughts?
BowSowy
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When do QBs typically start coming off of the board in your draft? IE is 4th round for Mahomes actually good value? Hard to judge because it seems like each individual league values QBs so differently.

Agree on Waddle. I think Ekeler with the 9th pick is very good value. You'd be ecstatic if you were in a fresh league and were able to pick him up with the 9th pick. AJB is also really good value.
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Goose06
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QBs are a bit variable every year. Just as soon as someone takes Mahomes then very shortly after that Hurts, Allen, and Burrow will go and who knows how many of those guys will be available at all with other teams keepers not yet being known yet. If I see no one else is keeping a QB, I think I may pass on keeping Mahomes, but if 2 or more of the top 8 guys are already being kept, I think I like the value on Mahomes.
Goose06
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ac04 said:

if you normally outdraft these people and are simply looking to maximize value vs ADP, i would keep waddle, watson, and breece hall (but monitor his progress returning from injury).

if you prefer to play it safe i think i'd keep waddle, mahomes, and ekeler.


Kind of leaning the play it safe route given I draft 2nd to last every round. Hard to even out draft morons with this setup. My team was stacked last year thanks to having the 2nd pick every round last year…
Chipotlemonger
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BowSowy said:

When do QBs typically start coming off of the board in your draft? IE is 4th round for Mahomes actually good value? Hard to judge because it seems like each individual league values QBs so differently.

Agree on Waddle. I think Ekeler with the 9th pick is very good value. You'd be ecstatic if you were in a fresh league and were able to pick him up with the 9th pick. AJB is also really good value.
Don't listen to anything this guy says on fantasy football^
W
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Ekeler wins a fantasy championship for me every year.

keeping Ekeler for the 9th pick would be a no-brainer in a snake draft...where your 2nd pick would be at #12.

perhaps another way to look at it...an owner who did not keep their 1st round pick, but kept their 2nd / 3rd round pick would be thrilled to grab Ekeler at #6 or #7 or #8
Goose06
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W said:

Ekeler wins a fantasy championship for me every year.

keeping Ekeler for the 9th pick would be a no-brainer in a snake draft...where your 2nd pick would be at #12.

perhaps another way to look at it...an owner who did not keep their 1st round pick, but kept their 2nd / 3rd round pick would be thrilled to grab Ekeler at #6 or #7 or #8


I agree that there is zero chance Ekeler drops to 9. I got him last year with the #2 pick.

Let's play this out, let's say I'm keeping Waddle and Mahomes and deciding between Ekeler, AJ Brown and Hall as my 3rd keeper (which is where I'm at unless someone can sell me on Metcalf or Watson). So let's make some assumptions about who will be available at #9, #29 and #59. I did a decent amount of analysis to see who would be available at 9, for 29 and 59 I just estimated best available would be ranked ~45 and ~80 for those spots.

#9: Diggs, Taylor, Henry, Chubb, Lamb, Adams, Bijan, AJ Brown if I don't keep him (not all of these will be available, but at least several will)

#29: Fields, Herbert, Ridley, Pierce, Kittle, McLaurin, DHop, DJ Moore, Dobbins, Watson

#59: Marquise Brown, D Montgomery, James Cook, Dak, Pickens, AJ Dillon, Jahan Dotson

Maybe I'm talking myself out of Mahomes, but somewhat thinking about going Waddle, AJ Brown and then either Ekeler, Mahomes or Hall. Leaning Mahomes or Hall still, there will be a good player available at 9.
LincolnBorglum79
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How is a non snake draft fair? Unless you earn your draft choice somehow I guess. Random order non snake wouldn't work with most folks
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Goose06
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LincolnBorglum79 said:

How is a non snake draft fair? Unless you earn your draft choice somehow I guess. Random order non snake wouldn't work with most folks

Its a keeper league so this is an attempt to help the bad teams catchup. 1st place drafts last. Last place actually drafts 4th as a way to make the consolation playoffs matter. Here is the order we draft:

1. Consolation Winner
2. Consolation Runner up
3. Consolation 3rd place
4. Consolation Loser
5. 6th Place from Playoffs
6. 5th Place from Playoffs
7. 4th Place...
...
10. 1st Place
LincolnBorglum79
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Makes perfect sense. Thanks. I'm trying to talk our 12 team non keeper league into changing to Superflex instead of just regular flex. Currently most teams only draft 1 QB but have 5 RB and 5 WR. This means we go 12 deep on 32 starting QBs and 60 for the flex positions which includes most backups. Superflex would get most QBS drafted and return sanity to RB in particular.
Goose06
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I forgot about the rule our league has where you can only take 1 player in rounds 1-3. So I am taking AJ Brown and not Ekeler. I am also keeping Waddle. So I think I am down to do I keep Mahomes with pick 39 or Breece Hall at pick 59?
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Goose06
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We are required to pick by this Saturday (although I plan to complain to our commish and try to buy a week). I'm also wondering if I shouldn't consider Hall over Waddle as this would be my last year I can keep Waddle but I can keep Hall again next year if I choose. Still leaning Brown, Waddle and Mahomes and then go RB / RB in rounds 1/2.
PDEMDHC
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Doing 1/2 point PPR for the first time this year. 40+ yard TDs gives you extra 2 points. Everything else typical. I'll pick 9th this year as I finished in second place in a 10 team league.

Past Keeper - Kamara - I'm dumping him. Listing my order of keepers, but making sure I'm not doing something dumb as I've always kept RBs the last decade.

Options
Jamaar Chase
Tyreek Hill
Tony Pollard

Goose06
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Agree with Chase assuming your keeper is just your 1st pick and not the round they were drafted or something.
Wooahhhh
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Waddle left practice holding his right side at yesterday's practice.

There was a brief shoving match between Lions offensive lineman Germain Ifedi and Giants linebacker Oshane Ximines. Other than that, things were pretty quiet on the camp fight front. Sorry to disappoint. - per The Athletic
gigem1223
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Josh Allen or Kelce?
Goose06
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gigem1223 said:

Josh Allen or Kelce?
Kelce unless you have some weird scoring that favors QBs
boy09
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I'm pretty sure i already know the answer, but..

Deebo - 5th round

or

Ken Walker III - 6th round
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